Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Rapids, MI

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FXUS63 KGRR 151759
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
159 PM EDT MON SEP 15 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 305 AM EDT MON SEP 15 2014

A COLD FRONT WILL BRING SOME RAIN TODAY. FAIR WEATHER WILL RETURN
TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL
BE OVER THE WEEKEND AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1156 AM EDT MON SEP 15 2014

IN THE PROCESS OF SCALING BACK POPS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON BASED ON
CURRENT RADAR TRENDS AND VERY LIGHT RAIN REPORTED UPSTREAM OVER
WISCONSIN. AM FAVORING LATEST HRRR SOLUTIONS THAT DISSIPATE
CURRENT E-W FGEN BAND OF PRECIP OVER OUR CENTRAL ZONES AND
REFOCUS PRECIPITATION TO OUR SOUTHEAST ZONES LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
UPDATES COMING OUT SHORTLY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 AM EDT MON SEP 15 2014

NARROW LINE OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN ATTM
WILL BE EXPANDING AND MOVING SOUTH TODAY AS UPPER DIVERGENCE
PRECEDES PASSAGE OF 500 MB TROUGH AXIS AND SFC COLD FRONT. RAIN
SHOULD BE ENDING FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING WITH STORM TOTAL QPF EXPECTED TO BE AROUND A
QUARTER INCH. HEIGHT RISES FOLLOW TONIGHT AS UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS
EAST WITH SFC RIDGING BUILDING IN SO WE SHOULD SEE CLEARING BY
MIDNIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 AM EDT MON SEP 15 2014

THE LONG TERM PORTION WILL START OUT RATHER QUIET...AND WILL BECOME
A BIT UNSETTLED TOWARD NEXT WEEKEND.

THE ONLY ITEM OF NOTE THROUGH THU NIGHT WILL BE A BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT THAT WILL APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE NE ON WED NIGHT AND INTO
EARLY THU. WE WILL SEE A FAIRLY ROBUST UPPER TROUGH SLIP BY JUST TO
OUR NE AT THAT TIME. THIS WILL TRY TO DRAG A COLD FRONT INTO THE
AREA. WE WILL SEE A SFC RIDGE MOVE NORTH OF THE AREA AND LOW LEVEL
NE FLOW WILL TRY TO ADVECT COOLER AIR IN ACROSS THE STATE.

WE WILL SEE A WARM UP ACROSS THE AREA THEN LATE INTO THIS WEEK AND
AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. THE TREND HAS BEEN
FOR LESS ENERGY TO MOVE OUT OF THE WRN STORM AND LIFT NE INTO
CANADA. WE WILL SEE AN UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE ERN ROCKIES AND PLAINS
EVENTUALLY GET FLATTENED OUT WITH JET ENERGY PLOWING INTO IT. AS
THIS IS HAPPENING...A COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH THE AREA
WITH A NICE FLOW OF MOISTURE COMING IN FROM THE GULF. THE FRONT
LOOKS TO POTENTIALLY LAY OUT ALONG THE NEARLY ZONAL PATTERN AND
STALL OUT.

WE COULD BE LOOKING AT MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF RAIN IF THIS FRONT STALLS
OUT NEAR THE AREA. IT IS NOT A GIVEN THAT IT WILL STALL OUT...AND IT
COULD BE MORE PROGRESSIVE AND MOVE THROUGH A LITTLE QUICKER. EITHER
WAY...THE BEST CHCS OF RAIN LOOK TO BE CENTERED AROUND SAT WITH
WARMER AIR. TEMPS WILL EVENTUALLY COOL OFF LATE IN THE PERIOD OR
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 159 PM EDT MON SEP 15 2014

RAIN HAS HAD A HARD TIME DEVELOPING OVER THE TAF SITES TODAY AS
WE ARE IN A DRY SLOT IN BETWEEN RAIN AREAS TO THE NORTH AND SOUTH.
CONDITIONS ARE STILL VFR AT 18Z... WITH ANY MVFR LOOKING LIKE IT
WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER 22Z AND WILL BE PRIMARILY AT THE
AZO/BTL/JXN TAF SITES FOR A FEW HOURS THIS EVENING.

CLEARING/IMPROVEMENT IS STILL EXPECTED LATER THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT
FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST... ALTHOUGH SOME MVFR FOG COULD
DEVELOP IN SPOTS AFTER IT CLEARS. WOULD NOT EVEN RULE OUT THE
POSSIBILITY OF IFR STRATUS/FOG DEVELOPING AFTER 06Z TONIGHT DUE TO
LIGHT WINDS AND MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER...BUT NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH
YET TO INTRODUCE THOSE LOWER CONDITIONS INTO THE TAFS. IT IS
SOMETHING TO MONITOR FOR FUTURE UPDATES THOUGH.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 305 AM EDT MON SEP 15 2014

WILL DROP THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AT 5 AM AS WINDS AND WAVES ARE
DECREASING...WITH 2 TO 4 FOOT WAVES EXPECTED TODAY.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 305 AM EDT MON SEP 15 2014

NO HYDRO ISSUES.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TJT
SYNOPSIS...OSTUNO
SHORT TERM...OSTUNO
LONG TERM...NJJ
AVIATION...MEADE
HYDROLOGY...OSTUNO
MARINE...OSTUNO





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