Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Rapids, MI

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FXUS63 KGRR 181153
AFDGRR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI
653 AM EST Sat Feb 18 2017

LATEST UPDATE...
Aviation

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 307 AM EST Sat Feb 18 2017

Temperatures today will be very warm and in record territory with
highs in the upper 50s to lower 60s in spots. Unseasonably warm
weather will continue most of not all of the coming week with
highs generally in the 50s. Rain is expected Monday night into
Tuesday and again towards the end of the work week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Monday)
Issued at 307 AM EST Sat Feb 18 2017

Very mild temperatures persisting overnight will set the stage for
a very warm Saturday with very good chances for record breaking
high temperatures in spots. Latest available visible satellite
imagery from Friday evening indicated that snowpack over the
northern forecast area was pretty much eliminated. Nearly full sun
yesterday combined with substantial insolation again today will
chip away at frost depths as well.

Other only item of note is the potential for patchy fog Sunday
morning. This is low certainty and unlikely to pose impacts to
travel should it occur.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Friday)
Issued at 307 AM EST Sat Feb 18 2017

Well above normal temps will continue through the work week.  Daily
high temps should largely remain in the 50s, which will be roughly
20 degrees above normal.

Good agreement that a cold front will cross the state on Tuesday.
Appears to be a quick hitter that may put down about a quarter inch
of rain Monday night into Tuesday.  This will be a Pacific system
with only marginally cooler air behind it for Tuesday and Tuesday
night.  Another pleasant day on Wed as we will be in between systems.

Thursday and Friday will be slightly cooler as rain returns.  By
then a stationary front should set up over the state with low
pressure riding up from the SW.  Deep SW flow should bring up plenty
of Gulf moisture, so this could be a steady and prolonged rain
maker, especially into Thursday night and Friday.

For winter enthusiasts, it appears this system will finally return
temps back to near normal and the rain should switch to snow Friday
night into next Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday morning)
Issued at 653 AM EST Sat Feb 18 2017

No significant changes were made. Expect low level wind shear
concerns to end fairly quickly through 13Z. Otherwise, high
confidence for VFR through 00Z. Some MVFR fog is expected mainly
after 03Z, but will not yet address it in the TAFs given
uncertainty at this longer time range. Do not anticipate IFR
restrictions with any fog that develops.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 307 AM EST Sat Feb 18 2017

Latest WW3 guidance suggested that waveheights will peak in the
next few hours and could briefly approach craft advisory criteria
in some of the southern marine zones. However, this will be short
lived and winds and waves should relax significantly during the
day.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 1141 AM EST Fri Feb 17 2017

Precipitation chances will remain low through Monday across the
region. Area rivers will continue to fall slowly as a result. The
precipitation event late Monday into Tuesday could cause new
rises to develop. Temperatures will remain warm enough to prevent
ice formation.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
LM...None.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TJT
SHORT TERM...TJT
LONG TERM...JK
AVIATION...TJT
HYDROLOGY...MWS
MARINE...TJT



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