Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Rapids, MI

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985
FXUS63 KGRR 290723
AFDGRR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI
323 AM EDT THU SEP 29 2016

LATEST UPDATE...
Synopsis/Short Term/Long Term/Marine

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 323 AM EDT Thu Sep 29 2016

Low pressure will continue to spin near and over Lower Michigan
through the week and into the weekend. This will bring mostly
cloudy weather with periods of showers and a few thunderstorms.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 323 AM EDT Thu Sep 29 2016

Upper cutoff low spins across the Ohio Valley then moves north
back into Lower Michigan by the end of the period. Strong easterly
flow including low level jet will tap into tropical moisture
plume moving up the east coast by Thursday night. Showers will
become more widespread and persist into Friday before beginning to
taper off as the occluded low moves into the forecast area.

Marginally steep lapse rates late Thursday into Saturday make
diurnal enhancement of thunderstorms possible each day. The
persistent nature of the flow regime and the presence of tropical
moisture feeding in will mean that excessive rains are possible
and this will have to be monitored closely.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 323 AM EDT Thu Sep 29 2016

The upper low will continue to linger over our region Saturday night
through Sunday and bring extensive cloud cover and scattered
showers.

The pattern should finally become more progressive Sunday night
into early next week when the upper level low will finally
move east of our region as upper ridging builds in from the
west.

As a result fair weather will finally return early next week
with seasonably mild temperatures reaching the lower to perhaps
middle 70`s by next Mon/Tue.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night)
Issued at 1202 AM EDT Thu Sep 29 2016

A mix of mvfr and vfr conditions will continue overnight with mvfr
conditions at times due to low clouds and showers. Conditions will
gradually deteriorate to primarily mvfr Thursday due to low clouds
and showers through the day. Northeast winds will increase to
10-15 kts with gusts to around 20 kts from mid morning through the
afternoon. Conditions may deteriorate further to ifr Thursday
evening due to low clouds/lowering cigs and showers.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 323 AM EDT Thu Sep 29 2016

Winds and waves will continue to be hazardous to small craft into
Friday. Strong offshore winds with gusts over 25 knots can be
expected. Wave heights will be greatest further from shore in the
easterly flow.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 140 PM EDT Tue Sep 27 2016

River levels are around normal for this time of year. Lake enhanced
rain showers are possible through Wednesday. Rain showers continue
to be possible into Sunday. Rainfall totals into the weekend will
range from a half inch up to an inch and a half. Rivers and streams
should remain below bankfull through the weekend.

&&

.GRR Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MI...None.
LM...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT Friday for LMZ844>849.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Ostuno
SHORT TERM...Ostuno
LONG TERM...Laurens
AVIATION...Laurens
HYDROLOGY...63
MARINE...Ostuno



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