Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Rapids, MI

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575
FXUS63 KGRR 031620
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
1220 PM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

LATEST UPDATE...
HYDRO

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 254 AM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH LOWER MICHIGAN TONIGHT. SHOWERS AND
PERHAPS A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AS THE FRONT CROSSES LOWER
MICHIGAN. MUCH COOLER AIR WILL FLOW OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY AND
HIGHS WILL ONLY REACH THE MID 50S. TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND INTO
THE 60S THURSDAY AND THEN 70S FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 254 AM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

FORECAST CONCERNS DEAL WITH PCPN TRENDS FROM LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH
TONIGHT.

LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A COLD FRONT STRETCHING FROM A LOW OVER
NORTHWEST ONTARIO SOUTHWEST INTO SOUTHERN MANITOBA. MAINLY CLEAR
SKIES WERE NOTED AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND THIS SHOULD LEAD TO SOME
SUNSHINE EARLY IN THE DAY. BUT HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE THIS
AFTERNOON AND THERE MAY BE A FEW SHOWERS THAT DEVELOP OVER THE NW
CWA AFTER 20Z. CONFIDENCE IS PRETTY HIGH THAT WE`LL SEE SHOWERS
TONIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES. LI/S AOB 0C AND THETA-E
DECREASING WITH HEIGHT WARRANT THE MENTION OF AT LEAST ISOLD TSRA AS
WELL. SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED DUE TO LOW SHEAR VALUES AND
LIMITED INSTABILITY.

A DEEP UPPER TROUGH WILL KEEP SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST WEDNESDAY. A
BRISK NORTHWEST WIND AND HIGHS IN THE LOWER 50S WILL MAKE IT FEEL
VERY CHILLY. HEIGHTS WILL RISE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY AND
TEMPS WILL CLIMB BACK INTO THE 60S THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN FROM THE NORTHWEST.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 254 AM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH COULD BRING SOME SHOWERS OVER THE WEEKEND AS
SFC LOW MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT
MOVING THROUGH SATURDAY INTO EARLY SUNDAY. SLIGHT AND LOW CHANCE
POPS WERE LEFT IN FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AS THERE IS SOME
ENSEMBLE SUPPORT FOR THE FRONT HANGING UP ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.

THIS WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED SINCE THERE IS A CHANCE THAT SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY WILL BE DRY AS SFC HIGH BUILDS IN. IF SKIES ARE
ABLE TO CLEAR...TEMPERATURES WOULD FALL A LOT LOWER THAN THE MINS IN
THE 40S CURRENTLY FORECAST FOR SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1131 AM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY DETERIORATE TO MVFR LATE THIS EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT AS LOW CLOUDS AND SHOWERS MOVE IN FROM THE NW.
CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY DETERIORATE TO IFR DURING THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS WEDNESDAY DUE TO LOW CIGS AND SHOWERS.

CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE FROM IFR TO MVFR MID TO LATE
WEDNESDAY MORNING AS CIGS IMPROVE A BIT. MVFR CONDITIONS WILL THEN
PERSIST THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON DUE TO CIGS AROUND 1.5
TO 2.5 KFT AGL AND LINGERING SHOWERS. WINDS WILL VEER TO THE NORTH
DURING THE MID MORNING HOURS WEDNESDAY AND BECOME GUSTY TO AROUND
20 KTS BY LATE MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 254 AM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE TODAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE
SOUTH TONIGHT. WAVES WILL INCREASE TO 2 TO 4 FEET NORTH OF GRAND
HAVEN. AFTER THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH TONIGHT WINDS WILL BECOME
NORTHERLY AND INCREASE TO AT LEAST 15 TO 25 KNOTS WEDNESDAY. WAVES
ARE LIKELY TO INCREASE TO 3 TO 5 FEET AND A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY
BE NEEDED.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1220 PM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

RIVER FLOOD ADVISORIES ARE CURRENTLY POSTED FOR SYCAMORE CREEK NEAR
HOLT AND THE GRAND RIVER AT IONIA. SYCAMORE CREEK IS FALLING AND
SHOULD FALL BELOW BANKFULL BY WEDNESDAY. THE GRAND RIVER IS STILL
RISING AT IONIA AND SHOULD CREST WEDNESDAY.

RAINFALL TOTALS TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY WILL BE A QUARTER TO A
HALF INCH. THIS SHOULD HELP TO KEEP RIVER LEVELS ELEVATED.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATE SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT... SO
RIVERS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...04
SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM...OSTUNO
AVIATION...LAURENS
HYDROLOGY...63
MARINE...04



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