Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI

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FXUS63 KMKX 190344
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
944 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

.UPDATE...AREAS OF FREEZING DRIZZLE AND FLURRIES IS NOW MOSTLY
LOCATED SOUTH OF A LINE FROM JEFFERSON TO MILWAUKEE WITH POSSIBLE
AREAS STILL IN DANE COUNTY. THE MIXED PCPN IS ON THE FAR WRN END
OF A WEST TO EAST SFC TROUGH THAT WILL SHIFT SWD BY
MIDNIGHT...MARKING THE END OF THE PCPN. A WEDGE OF DRY SHOULD ALSO
CONTINUE SWD OVER ERN WI TNT BUT THE STRATUS WILL LIKELY REMAIN
OVER SOUTH CENTRAL WI INTO FRI.

.AVIATION/06Z TAFS/...ANY LINGERING FLURRIES OR FREEZING DRIZZLE
SHOULD END BY MIDNIGHT FOR KMSN AND SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT FOR
KENW. KUES AND KMKE SHOULD REMAIN DRY. DRIER AIR AND AN AREA OF
CLEARING WILL MOVE SWD OVER FAR ERN WI TNT WHILE THE STRATUS
REMAINS OVER SOUTH CENTRAL WI THROUGH FRI AM. THUS EXPECT MORE SCT
CLOUD COVER OVER THE ERN WI TAF SITES FOR FRI BUT MVFR CIGS
REMAIN FOR KMSN...BUT POSSIBLY GOING SCATTERED DURING THE
AFTERNOON.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 403 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014/

TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.

NO LONGER EXPECTING LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE TO OCCUR ACROSS THE AREA.
VERY LIGHT REFLECTIVITY ON RADAR NOT VERIFYING ANY PRECIPITATION
WITH THE AUTOMATED SITES. MEDIA AND PUBLIC REPORTS...AS WELL AS
COUNTY DISPATCHERS...NOT REPORTING ISSUES WITH SLICK ROADS ONCE ROAD
TREATMENTS WERE APPLIED.

AREA OF LOW CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO LINGER TONIGHT ACROSS THE AREA.
THERE MAY BE SOME PARTIAL CLEARING IN THE NORTHEAST COUNTIES...GIVEN
BACK EDGE OF CLOUDS SLIDING SOUTHWEST TOWARD THAT AREA. SOME
UNCERTAINTY HERE...AS LIGHT BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS SHOULD ALLOW FOR
INVERSION TO LINGER AND KEEP LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRAPPED. OPTED TO
REMAIN PESSIMISTIC WITH CLOUDS TONIGHT. LOWS SHOULD REMAIN IN THE
LOWER 20S IN MOST AREAS...A BIT WARMER NEAR THE LAKE.

MODELS SUGGEST LOW CLOUDS MAY LINGER FRIDAY AS WELL...WITH INVERSION
HOLDING AND WINDS IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER REMAINING LIGHT. CONTINUED
TO GO PARTLY CLOUDY FOR FRIDAY IN THE NORTH AND WEST...THOUGH THIS
MAY NEED TO BE RAISED IF INVERSION HOLDS THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD REACH AROUND 30 IN MOST AREAS...A BIT WARMER
NEAR THE LAKE.

SHORT TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE
MEDIUM.

EARLY PART OF THE PERIOD WILL BE MAINLY DRY...THOUGH THERE WILL BE
A CHANCE FOR A FEW FLURRIES OR VERY LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AS COLUMN
BRIEFLY MOISTENS AND OMEGA INCREASES WITH SHORT WAVE CROSSING
REGION SATURDAY AFTERNOON. PCPN CHANCES BEGIN TO INCREASE AS WARM
ADVECTION AND LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION KICKS IN...BRINGING A
CHANCE OF DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE TOT HE FAR WEST SATURDAY
NIGHT...CHANGING OVER TO A RAIN/SNOW MIX SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS.

LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE
MEDIUM.

THIS PERIOD MARKED BY PERIODS OF VARYING PRECIPITATION TYPES...MAINLY
A RAIN SNOW MIX...AS DEEPENING 500 MB LOW AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE
LOW CROSS THE REGION. MODEL TIMING AND CONFIGURATION DIFFERENCES
WILL HAVE A BIG IMPACT ON TYPES. BLENDED SOLUTION BRINGS A LIGHT RAIN/SNOW
MIX AHEAD OF LOW...WITH A PERIOD OF ALL RAIN IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST
MONDAY AFTERNOON...AND PERIODS OF ALL LIGHT SNOW IN THE NW CWA AT
NIGHT. PCPN GOES TO ALL SNOW TUESDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUES AS IT
TAPERS OFF FROM SW TO NE WEDNESDAY. AGAIN MODEL TIMING/STRENGTH
DIFFERENCES BRING VARYING SNOW TOTALS...BUT BLENDED SOLUTION
BRINGS A GOOD CHANCE FOR AT LEAST 1 INCH OF SNOW BY THURSDAY
MORNING.

AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...

EXPECT MVFR CEILINGS TO REMAIN ACROSS TAF SITES FOR MOST OF
TONIGHT...AND PERHAPS FOR MOST OF FRIDAY. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT
THROUGH THIS PERIOD. THERE MAY BE A PERIOD OF THE MVFR CEILINGS
MIXING OUT BY 13Z FRIDAY MORNING AT MADISON AND WAUKESHA...THOUGH
THERE IS UNCERTAINTY ABOUT THIS. MILWAUKEE AND KENOSHA SHOULD REMAIN
IN THE MVFR CEILINGS ON FRIDAY.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GEHRING
TONIGHT/FRIDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...WOOD
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...REM


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