Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

000
FXUS63 KMKX 260144
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
844 PM CDT MON AUG 25 2014

.UPDATE...
IN THE WAKE OF THE CONVECTION EARLIER TODAY...THE SFC DEW POINTS
MIXED OUT INTO THE MID AND UPPER 60S WITH THE COLD POOL FRONTAL
BOUNDARY PUSHING WELL SOUTH INTO ILLINOIS. HOWEVER...THE SYNOPTIC
COLD FRONT...THOUGH VERY WEAK IN DEFINITION...STILL LINGERS ACROSS
CENTRAL WISCONSIN...RUNNING FROM NEAR GREEN BAY SOUTHWEST TO JUST
SOUTH OF LA CROSSE. A RIBBON OF VERY HIGH DEW POINTS STRETCHES
NORTH ALONG THE FRONT INTO WI. DESPITE THIS...THE BOUNDARY LAYER
CONVECTIVE INHIBITION IS GROWING...SO DESPITE THE 3-4K J/KG OF MU
CAPE SHOWING UP...IT APPEARS MOST OF IT WILL GO TO WASTE AS IT
DOESN/T APPEAR THERE IS SUFFICIENT FORCING ALOFT TO KICK OFF ANY
ELEVATED STORMS. THE FRONT WILL DRIFT SLOWLY ACROSS SOUTHERN
WISCONSIN OVERNIGHT...REACHING MILWAUKEE BY ABOUT 5-6 AM TUE
MORNING. SOME OF THE MODELS DO SHOW SOME CONVECTION DEVELOPING TO
THE SOUTHWEST OF WISCONSIN LATER TONIGHT...WHERE THE INHIBITION IS
LOWER...AND POSSIBLY DRIFTING ACROSS OUR FAR SOUTH. THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST HAS THIS IN THERE AND THIS LOOKS GOOD. ESPECIALLY IN
LIGHT OF THE CAPE AVAILABLE.

OVERALL...THE FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE AND NOT MUCH ADJUSTMENT
NEEDED.

&&

.AVIATION/06Z TAFS/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE TAF PERIOD. THERE IS A
CHANCE OF SOME FOG BEFORE 12Z TUE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. THE DEWPOINTS ARE INCREASING ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...AND THE WINDS ARE VERY WEAK AT THE SURFACE.
HOWEVER...THERE APPEARS TO BE ENOUGH MIXING ABOVE THE BOUNDARY
LAYER TO KEEP THE FOG FROM GETTING TOO THICK. THE FOG WOULD MAINLY
BE OUT IN RURAL AREAS ANYWAY. SOME SHOWERS OR STORMS ARE POSSIBLE
LATER TONIGHT SOUTH OF MILWAUKEE AND MADISON AS THE VERY WEAK COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH. THIS WOULD BE A THREAT THROUGH ABOUT
15Z TUE...THEN DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. THE CHANCE FOR PRECIP
IT TOO SMALL AT THIS POINT TO INCLUDE IN THE TAF.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 330 PM CDT MON AUG 25 2014/

TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE - MEDIUM.

AREA OF SHOWERS AND STORMS FINALLY ON THE WAY OUT OF SOUTHEAST
WISCONSIN THIS AFTERNOON. LOOKS LIKE A DRY PERIOD THEN THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS AND INTO EARLY TONIGHT. COULD SEE SOME MORE SHOWERS
AND STORMS FORM NEAR THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY LATER TONIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING. GIVEN THE FRONT WILL BE JUST SOUTH OF THE WI/IL
BORDER...BEST CHANCE WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA. HIGH PRESSURE PUSHING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST SHOULD
THEN BRING DRY WEATHER FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS. SHOULD SEE HIGH
TEMPS RIGHT AROUND NORMAL TOMORROW.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE - MEDIUM.

NEED TO CARRY LOW POPS IN THE FAR SOUTH TUE NIGHT INTO WED AS STILL
EXPECT A WEAK AREA OF MID-LEVEL Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE TO PASS ACROSS
SOUTHERN WISCONSIN TUE NIGHT.  OTHERWISE MORE BROADSCALE NW FLOW
WILL RESULT IN A GREATER PUSH OF LESS HUMID AND STABLE CONDITIONS
FOR MID-WEEK.  HENCE WAS ABLE TO CUT BACK POPS SIGNIFICANTLY.
ACTIVE WEATHER WILL REMAIN IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
ACROSS CENTRAL IL.  LATER SHIFTS MAY BE ABLE TO REMOVE ALL POPS FROM
WED PERIOD.

GFS AND NAM INDICATING STRONG RETURN FLOW USHERING IN STRONG
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT ACROSS WESTERN WI.  GEM
AND ECMWF MUCH SLOWER WITH RETURN FLOW UNTIL THURSDAY.  FOCUS WILL
BE JUST TO THE WEST THU NGT BUT ECMWF DOES CARRY INCREASING LOW
LEVEL JET INTO SRN WI DURING THE DAY FRI.  HENCE WL CARRY MID TO
HIGH LEVEL POPS ON THU AS THIS WILL BE MOST FAVORED PERIOD FOR WSPRD
CONVECTION.  WL NEED TO WATCH HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT ONCE AGAIN AS
PWAT INCREASES TO 1.5 TO 2.0 INCHES.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE - MEDIUM
TRENDING TOWARD LOW.

MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON UNSETTLED WEATHER
RETURNING THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT AND PERSISTING AT LEAST
INTO SATURDAY.  THE UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL BE CAUSED BY LOW LEVEL
SOUTH WINDS RETURNING DURING THIS TIME...PULLING THE DEEPER MOISTURE
AND WARM TEMPERATURES NORTHWARD ONCE AGAIN INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST.
DURING THIS TIME UPSTREAM SLOW MOVING SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER CENTRAL
CONUS WL SEND PIECES OF SHORT WAVE ENERGY NORTHEAST INTO THE WESTERN
GTLAKES...RETURNING THREAT FOR HEAVY RAINFALL.  PWAT VALUES RETURN
TO 1.5 TO 2 INCHES BY FRIDAY.

GUIDANCE SOLUTIONS DIVERGE OVER THE WEEKEND AS BOTH GFS AND GEM
CARRIES WEAKENING SHORT WAVE TROUGH ACROSS WI WHILE ECMWF DELAYS THE
PASSAGE UNTIL LATER SUNDAY...WITH UPSTREAM LONG WAVE TROFING ALREADY
AMPLIFYING INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL CONUS BY MONDAY.  WITH HPC BLENDED
FIELDS LEANING MORE ON ECMWF ENSEMBLE...APPEARS THE THREAT FOR MORE
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK.  HENCE WL HAVE CHANCE
POPS MOST EXTENDED PERIODS.

AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...

AFTER PRECIP EXITS THE SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON...LOOKS DRY DURING
THE EVENING AND EARLY NIGHT HOURS. MORE SHOWERS/STORMS ARE POSSIBLE
LATER TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING...ESPECIALLY FARTHER SOUTH TOWARD
ILLINOIS. APPROACHING HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD THEN BRING A DRY
AFTERNOON TOMORROW.

OTHER THAN SOME LOWER VSBYS WITHIN PRECIP...LOOKS LIKE MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DAVIS
TONIGHT/TUESDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...DDV
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...MBK


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.