Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI

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FXUS63 KMKX 141936
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
236 PM CDT SUN SEP 14 2014

.SHORT TERM...

TONIGHT AND MONDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.

MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH SURFACE COLD FRONT SLIDING SOUTHEAST
TOWARD THE AREA THIS EVENING...AND INTO THE AREA LATER TONIGHT. LEAD
500 MB VORTICITY MAXIMUM IS EXPECTED TO CROSS CENTRAL WISCONSIN
LATER TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING.

AREA FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING COLUMN MOISTURE GRADUALLY INCREASING
FROM THE MID LEVELS DOWNWARD TONIGHT...SATURATING MONDAY MORNING
INTO THE AFTERNOON. MAIN 500 MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH THEN SLIDES EAST
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA ON MONDAY...AS COLD FRONT MOVES OUT OF
THE AREA. UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION IS FAIRLY ROBUST LATER TONIGHT IN
THE NORTHERN AND NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA...AND ACROSS MOST
OF THE AREA ON MONDAY.

THUS...CONTINUED WITH HIGH POPS FOR SHOWERS LATER TONIGHT IN THE
NORTH AND NORTHWEST COUNTIES...LOWER TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. KEPT
LIKELY POPS FOR SHOWERS ON MONDAY...THOUGH COULD BE RAISED MORE IN
LATER FORECASTS GIVEN DECENT AGREEMENT AMONG THE MODELS WITH THIS
SYSTEM.

CLOUDS WILL KEEP LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50 TONIGHT...WITH
HIGHS ONLY IN THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 ON MONDAY. THE HIGHS MAY
NEED TO BE LOWERED IN LATER FORECASTS GIVEN CLOUDS AND RAIN IN THE
AREA ON MONDAY.


MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH.

NW FLOW ALOFT WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THIS PERIOD. SFC HIGH PRESSURE
WILL MOVE FROM THE MID MO RIVER VALLEY TO IL ON TUE AND REMAIN
THERE INTO WED. AS A LARGE POLAR TROUGH MOVES SEWD ACROSS SE
CANADA ON WED-THU...ITS BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS S WI
WED NIGHT. LGT WLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL TUE-WED WITH THE BACKDOOR
COLD FRONT SHIFTING THE WINDS TO ELY WED NT. THE COLD FRONT WILL
BE SHALLOW WITH LITTLE TO NO LIFT OR MOISTURE TO WORK WITH...THUS
THE FORECAST REMAINS DRY. MO SUNNY...MILD DAYS AND MO CLEAR...COOL
NIGHTS ARE EXPECTED DURING THIS PERIOD.


.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

A LARGE AREA OF POLAR HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER
TROUGH IN CANADA AND MOVE FROM S ONTARIO TO S QUEBEC ON THU-FRI.
MEANWHILE...WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL MOVE EWD ACROSS SRN
CANADA AND ADJACENT USA WITH A LEE SFC TROUGH OVER THE PLAINS. SLY
FLOW AND WARM...MOIST ADVECTION WILL ENSUE ON FRI. THERE IS MODEL
UNCERTAINTY WITH THE DEGREE OF UPPER TROUGHING AND DIGGING TO
OCCUR ACROSS THE UPPER MS RIVER VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES FOR THE
WEEKEND. THUS ONLY HAVE CHANCE POPS FOR TSTORMS AT THIS TIME. DO
EXPECT AN EVENTUAL COLD FROPA BUT WITH UNCERTAINTY ON TIMING AND
STRENGTH. TEMPS WILL FINALLY RETURN TO NORMAL BY THE END OF THE
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...

VFR CATEGORY DIURNAL CUMULUS CLOUDS WILL LINGER UNTIL SUNSET
ACROSS TAF SITES. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL GUST UP TO 20 KNOTS AT
TIMES.

MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY MOVE INTO THE AREA THIS
EVENING...LOWERING TO MVFR CATEGORY LATER TONIGHT INTO MONDAY...AS
COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. LIGHT RAIN WITH MVFR
CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED AT MADISON AFTER 11Z MONDAY...AND AFTER 13Z
MONDAY ACROSS THE EASTERN SITES...AS COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE
AREA.

THESE CONDITIONS WILL LINGER THROUGH THE REST OF MONDAY...ENDING
AT THE EASTERN SITES BY 00Z TUESDAY. LIGHT WINDS LATER TONIGHT
INTO EARLY MONDAY WILL BECOME NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT IN THE
LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

TONIGHT/MONDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...WOOD
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...GEHRING


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