Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI

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FXUS63 KMKX 221507 AAA
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1007 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.UPDATE...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BRING A NICE DAY ACROSS THE AREA.
DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE WILL ALLOW FOR SUNNY SKIES THROUGH THE REST
OF TODAY. DEW POINTS MAY MIX DOWN A BIT MORE THAN CURRENTLY
FORECAST...WHICH WOULD BRING RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES INTO THE 20
TO 25 PERCENT RANGE THIS AFTERNOON WELL INLAND. EASTERLY WINDS
WILL KEEP HIGHS IN THE 50S NEAR THE LAKE...WITH LOWER TO MID 70S
WELL INLAND.

&&

.AVIATION/18Z TAFS/...

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS TAF SITES THIS
AFTERNOON...TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION
WILL DRIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. LIGHT EAST WINDS
THIS AFTERNOON WILL BECOME SOUTHEAST TONIGHT AND SOUTH INTO
SATURDAY.

LAKE BREEZE WITH SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED AT MILWAUKEE AND
KENOSHA SATURDAY AFTERNOON. CLEAR SKIES THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT
WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING MID LEVEL CLOUDS ON SATURDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 343 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015/

SHORT TERM...

TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

MORE SUNSHINE FOR TODAY THANKS TO HIGH PRESSURE. AN EASTERLY WIND
WILL KEEP THE SOUTHEAST...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE LAKE...MUCH COOLER
TODAY COMPARED TO AREAS WEST OF MADISON. ADDITIONALLY...THE AIR
WILL BE QUITE DRY WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 30S. THIS WILL SET UP THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME RADIATIONAL COOLING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST THIS
EVENING...BEFORE HIGH CLOUDS SPILL IN. LOWS IN THE SOUTHEAST COULD
DIP TO NEAR 40...POSSIBLY UPPER 30S IN TYPICAL LOW SPOTS. WARMER
LOWS WILL BE FOUND SOUTHWEST OF MADISON.

SATURDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

AN UPPER LOW DRIFTING OVER THE ROCKIES WILL LIFT INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS SUNDAY AND MONDAY. ON SATURDAY...A WEAKENING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH...850 MB WARM FRONT AND A STRENGTHENING UPPER JET
OVER THE REGION WILL SWING NORTHWARD THROUGH WI. THERE IS A VERY
SMALL RISK FOR LIGHT SHOWERS DURING THE DAY SATURDAY AS MID LEVEL
MOISTURE INCREASES. WEAK FORCING AND DRY LOW LEVELS ARE THE
LIMITING FACTORS...SO KEPT THE FORECAST DRY.

THE FORCING OVER SOUTHERN WI IS EVEN WEAKER SATURDAY NIGHT...SO
DECREASED PRECIP CHANCES. IF THE SUNDAY SYSTEM SPEEDS UP...THERE
IS A CHANCE FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDER WITH THE
WARM AIR ADVECTION EARLY SUNDAY MORNING IN SOUTH CENTRAL WI.

INCREASING CLOUDS DURING THIS PERIOD WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES IN
CHECK DESPITE THE WARM AIR ADVECTION ALOFT. LOOK FOR HIGHS IN THE
LOWER 70S. A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL ALLOW FOR A LAKE BREEZE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM...

SUNDAY AND MEMORIAL DAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

THE LOW LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS OVER THE MIDWEST AND POINTS INTO
SOUTHERN WI SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY WHILE SEVERAL ROUNDS OF MID
LEVEL SHORTWAVES MOVE ACROSS WI. THIS WILL COMBINE WITH 850MB WARM
AIR ADVECTION AND THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF AN UPPER JET AND
GIVE US A GOOD CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS ON SUNDAY. THE NAM DEPICTS
SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS DURING THE DAY INTO THE EVENING. MODEL
SOUNDINGS SHOW A MOIST ADIABATIC PROFILE WITH VERY LIMITED
INSTABILITY...SO WENT PRIMARILY WITH SMALLER CHANCES FOR THUNDER.

ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN IS EXPECTED ON MONDAY. TIMING WITH THIS
ROUND IS LESS CERTAIN SINCE THE ECMWF IS FASTER THAN THE GFS WITH
LIFTING THE LOW PRESSURE TROUGH INTO CENTRAL AND NORTHERN WI
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.

CLOUDS AND PRECIP WILL KEEP TEMPS DOWN INTO THE LOWER 70S ON
SUNDAY. IF THAT SYSTEM CAN LIFT NORTHWARD QUICKLY ENOUGH TO ALLOW
SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS MONDAY AFTERNOON...EXPECT A WARMER DAY
IN THE MID 70S.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

THE UPPER LOW PARKED OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL WEAKEN AND
SLOWLY SHIFT EAST TUESDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL KEEP SOUTHERN WI IN A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE DAY TUESDAY. THE
GFS IS SHOWING DECENT INSTABILITY WITH STEEPER MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES...BUT SHEAR IS WEAK...SO NOTHING SEVERE EXPECTED. ANOTHER
UPPER LOW OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. WILL BRING THE NEXT CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS TO SOUTHERN WI ON WEDNESDAY. PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES WILL BE 1.15 TO 1.4 INCHES NEXT WEEK.

AN ACTIVE ZONAL FLOW PATTERN WILL KEEP REPEATED PRECIP CHANCES
OVER SOUTHERN WI THROUGH THE REST OF NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE WARM...IN THE UPPER 70S.

AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING QUIET WEATHER...VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...WOOD
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...DAVIS
SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MRC


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