Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI

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FXUS63 KMKX 180835
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
335 AM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.TODAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

WILL BE ADDING SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS INTO THE EASTERN CWA FOR
EARLY THIS MORNING WITH VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE ALL MODELS DROP
THROUGH WESTERN WISCONSIN TO NEAR DBQ BY 12Z...AND EAST-CENTRAL IL
BY 18Z. SCATTERED 0.01 INCH PCPN AMOUNTS BEING RECORDED UNDER
RADAR RETURNS OVER NORTHERN WISCONSIN.

VORTICITY-DRIVEN Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE...MOISTURE AND OMEGA COVER
THE EASTERN CWA AT 12Z. RAP...HRRR AND NAM ALL BRING LIGHT QPF
ACROSS THE EASTERN THIRD TO HALF OF THE CWA. THE LIGHT SCATTERED
SHOWERS WILL EXIT TO THE SOUTH WITH THE WAVE AROUND 16Z.

CLOUDS WILL BE CLEARING FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST IN THE
SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE WAVE DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
COLD AIR ADVECTION DROPS 925 MB TEMPERATURES TO BETWEEN 1C AND 3C
BY 12Z...THEN MODIFY UPWARD A BIT BY LATE AFTERNOON. HIGHS
EXPECTED TO REACH THE UPPER 40S EAST TO LOW 50S WEST. NORTHWEST
WINDS WILL SLOWLY EASE AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.

.TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

THE CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WITH THE HIGH WILL PROVIDE
IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS TONIGHT. LOWS WILL FALL TO
BETWEEN 30 AND 33 DEGREES...EXCEPT FOR A NARROW STRIP RIGHT ALONG
THE LAKE MICHIGAN SHORE. HAVE ISSUED A FROST ADVISORY FOR TONIGHT
FOR OUR REMAINING THREE COUNTIES AS WIDESPREAD FROST IS EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP BETWEEN 08Z AND 10Z AND LAST THROUGH DAYBREAK...EVEN
FOR MOST OF MILWAUKEE COUNTY.

.SHORT TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS
MEDIUM.

MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION REGIME SETTING
UP ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. SOME MOISTURE IN THE
850MB TO 700 MB LAYER SHOULD PASS SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE AREA
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...AS 500 MB VORTICITY MAXIMUM MOVES IN A
SIMILAR FASHION THROUGH THE AREA.

AREA FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE NOT SHOWING MUCH SATURATION IN THE
LOW TO MID LEVELS...THOUGH BEST CHANCES FOR THIS WOULD BE IN THE
FAR EAST AND NORTHEAST COUNTIES. GFS AND ECMWF ARE ONLY MODELS
BRINGING LIGHT QPF TO THE FAR EAST AND NORTHEAST COUNTIES SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY AFTERNOON...WITH THE NAM AND CANADIAN DRY. WILL
LEAVE LOWER END POPS IN THE FAR EAST AND NORTHEAST COUNTIES SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY.

HIGHS IN THE MID 50S SUNDAY SHOULD CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 50S TO
LOWER 60S MONDAY...PER 925 MB TEMPERATURE FIELDS IN MODELS.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS
MEDIUM.

GFS AND ECMWF ARE SHOWING GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A 500 MB RIDGE AXIS
REMAINING OVER THE REGION DURING THIS PERIOD. THIS KEEPS HIGH
PRESSURE NEAR OR OVER THE REGION...WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN A PERIOD
OF QUIET WEATHER.

THE RIDGE THEN BREAKS DOWN AND SHIFTS EASTWARD THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY...WITH WEST NORTHWEST FLOW AT 500 MB IN ITS WAKE. ECMWF
TRIES TO BRING QPF INTO THE AREA WITH A PASSING SHORTWAVE TROUGH
THURSDAY...WITH THE GFS SOMEWHAT SLOWER. BOTH MODELS SHOW A
WEAKENING TREND WITH THE QPF DURING THIS TIME.

FOR NOW...WILL LEAVE THE LONG TERM PERIOD DRY. TEMPERATURES LOOK
TO REMAIN NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...

MVFR CIGS...MOVING INTO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN AHEAD OF VIGOROUS WAVE
DROPPING THROUGH THE STATE...WILL CLEAR THE SOUTH BETWEEN 16Z AND
17Z. LOOKING FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS/SPRINKLES WITH THIS FEATURE
MAINLY AT THE EASTERN TAF SITES BETWEEN 11Z AND 14Z. VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST ONCE THE
CLOUDS CLEAR THE SOUTH.

GUSTY NORTH-NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BEGIN TO EASE THIS AFTERNOON AS
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION. CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS
WILL BRING WIDESPREAD FROST TONIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...

LEFT THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY END TIME AT 7 PM THIS
EVENING...WITH GUSTY NORTH-NORTHWEST WINDS SLOWLY EASING LATE THIS
MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. WILL TAKE SOME TIME FOR WAVES TO
SUBSIDE.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...FROST ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 8 AM CDT SUNDAY FOR WIZ066-071-072.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LMZ643>646.

&&

$$

TONIGHT/SUNDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...REM
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...WOOD



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