Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI

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FXUS63 KMKX 121105
AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
605 AM CDT Sat Aug 12 2017

.UPDATE...

An area of stratocumulus over southeast Wisconsin this morning.

&&

.AVIATION(12Z TAFS)...

IFR fog in portions of the Wisconsin river valley until mid
morning.

A band of MVFR CIGS expected for a time this morning over
southeast Wisconsin. Otherwise sct-bkn clouds around 4-5 thsd ft
later this afternoon. An isolated light shower possible this
afternoon southeast.

High pressure over Wisconsin tonight and over the Great Lakes
Sunday.  Patchy IFR fog mainly in river valleys tonight.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... (Issued 302 AM CDT Sat Aug 12 2017)

SHORT TERM...

Today and Tonight...Forecast Confidence is Medium...

A broad upper trough will move across the Upper Great Lakes, with
a west/northwest flow across southern Wisconsin. One jet max
across central/southern Illinois exits, with another moving across
central and southern Wisconsin tonight. This should bring a
period of cirrus later this afternoon and tonight. otherwise mid
levels are dry.

There is a period this afternoon when low level lapse rates
increase, with modest moisture around 850 mb and a weak cap. maybe
some moderate cumulus, with an isolated shower possible, mainly
southeast. However chances too small to mention attm.

Have used the high resolution HRRR for winds today, that bring
more a a lake breeze into the far east.

Areas of fog expected tonight as high pressure moves across
Wisconsin.

LONG TERM...

Sunday...Forecast confidence is high:

High pressure overhead on Sunday will bring another round of
pleasant weather to southern Wisconsin. Dry weather is expected,
with some clouds in the afternoon as a wave approaches. Should
see high temps near normal for mid-August.

Monday through Friday...Forecast confidence is medium:

High pressure will move eastward by Monday. A series of waves are
then expected during the week, allowing a return of precip chances
at times. Models aren`t in great agreement with the placement and
timing of the individual waves. Deeper moisture and better
instability don`t arrive until Wednesday, so kept pops on the
lower end prior to that.

Temperatures will likely remain right near average values next
week.

AVIATION(06Z TAFS)...

Area of broken to overcast clouds are moving off to the east of
the area. Mostly clear skies are expected across most of the area
overnight into Saturday morning. There may be some clouds that
remain or move into far northeastern portions of the area during
this time.

Light winds are expected overnight into Saturday morning, as high
pressure builds into the region from the northwest. A lake breeze
with northeast winds are expected by the early afternoon hours
Saturday near Lake Michigan. May see some diurnal cumulus clouds
develop in the late morning and afternoon.

MARINE...

The winds and waves will be below small craft advisory conditions
today. Winds will shift to the northeast with a lake breeze by
early afternoon. Should see light east to southeast winds with
another lake breeze by early Sunday afternoon as high pressure
moves across the Great lakes. Waves will remain low during this
period.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
LM...None.
&&

$$

Update...Hentz
Today/Tonight and Aviation/Marine...Hentz
Sunday THROUGH Friday...DDV



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