Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI

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FXUS63 KMKX 251608
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1108 AM CDT THU JUN 25 2015

.UPDATE...

SHOWERS ACROSS THE FAR SE FORECAST AREA ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW TO
OUR SOUTH SHOULD MOVE OUT BY MIDDAY AS THE LOW MOVES OFF TO THE
EAST. CLOUDY SKIES SHOULD GRADUALLY SCATTER OUT THIS AFTERNOON AS
DRIER AIR WORKS INTO THE REGION. HOWEVER...THERE WILL STILL BE
ENOUGH MOISTURE...COUPLED WITH MODEST SUPPORT FOR ASCENT AND WEAK
INSTABILITY...TO SUPPORT A CHANCES AT ISOLATED SHOWERS THIS
AFTERNOON. HIGH RES MESO MODELS SUPPORT THIS NOTION WITH SCATTERED
PRECIP ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.AVIATION/18Z TAFS/...

EXPECTING VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL SITES THIS AFTERNOON AS THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT BROUGHT SHOWERS AND REDUCED CIGS TO THE AREA
THIS MORNING WILL BE OUT OF THE REGION. DRIER AIR WILL TO BUILD IN
BEHIND THE LOW...ALLOWING CIGS TO RISE BEFORE THE CLOUDS SCATTER
OUT THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...DO EXPECT TO SEE SOME
DESTABILIZATION THIS AFTERNOON WHICH WILL BRING A CHANCE AT
ISOLATED SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY AWAY FROM LAKE MICHIGAN. WILL REMAIN
VFR OVER NIGHT AND INTO THE MORNING...WITH A MID DECK OF CLOUDS
MOVING IN ON FRIDAY MORNING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 329 AM CDT THU JUN 25 2015/

TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.

SHOWERS AND STORMS ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE MCS OVER THE
SOUTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL MOVE EAST/DISSIPATE BY OR
SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE.  WE HAVE LOTS OF MOISTURE LINGERING AROUND
TODAY GIVEN THE WEAK FLOW.  THE SURFACE LOW WILL BE PASSING TO OUR
SOUTH WITH A WEAK TROF STRETCHING NORTH INTO THE FORECAST AREA.
GIVEN THE INSTABILITY ON THE SOUNDINGS...THE WEAK LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE AND A NOISY MID LEVEL WITH WEAK SHORT WAVE ENERGY
PASSING THROUGH ON A ZONAL TO NORTHWEST FLOW IT WOULD SEEM
REASONABLE WE COULD SEE SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS OR A THUNDERSTORM THIS
AFTERNOON. WILL CARRY SOME SMALL POPS WITH THAT.

WE WILL DRY OUT TONIGHT BUT CLOUDS MAY BE TOUGH TO SCOUR.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

MODELS ARE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT FOR A CHANCE FOR A FEW
SHOWERS/STORMS ON FRIDAY. SURFACE LOW WILL REMAIN WELL TO THE
SOUTH...BUT MID/UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL TRAVERSE THE FORECAST
AREA. SEEMS TO BE ENOUGH MOISTURE/INSTABILITY FOR SOME LOW POPS
DURING THE DAY AND INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE EVENING.

TEMPS SHOULD BE A COUPLE DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THROUGH
SATURDAY MOST PLACES...BUT SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER THAN AVERAGE
NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN.

SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

SEVERAL WAVES ARE PROGGED TO BRING A RETURN OF SHOWER/STORM
CHANCES TO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. STILL SOME
TIMING DIFFERENCES AMONG MODELS...SO POPS ARE SPREAD OUT THROUGH
THIS PERIOD. LOOKS DRIER THEN WEDNESDAY UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN WITHIN A COUPLE DEGREES OF NORMAL INTO THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

AVIATION/12Z TAFS/... WE SHOULD SEE A PERIOD OF MVFR...POSSIBLY
IFR...CIGS THIS MORNING THROUGH ABOUT 17-18Z AS A WEAK LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM PASSES BY TO THE SOUTH. WE/LL REMAIN IN A VERY MOIST
ATMOSPHERE WITH WEAK FLOW. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS WE BEGIN TO MIX OUT.  BUT...WE COULD ALSO
SEE A FEW SHOWERS AND EVEN A THUNDERSTORM WEST OF MILWAUKEE.  VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FROM MID AFTERNOON THROUGH THE REMAINING TAF
PERIOD.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...BSH
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...DAVIS
FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...DDV



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