Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI

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000
FXUS63 KMKX 230831
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
331 AM CDT SUN AUG 23 2015

.TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM TO HIGH.

A NEW AREA OF SHOWERS HAS DEVELOPED OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTH
CENTRAL WI AND EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE AS THE SURGE OF
WARM...MOIST ADVECTION OCCURS AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT
THAT IS NEAR THE MS RIVER. MORE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY ISOLD TSTORMS
WILL OCCUR NEAR THE FRONT VIA LOW LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS AND HEIGHT
FALLS. THUS LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS FOR THIS MORNING. THE FROPA
WILL OCCUR LATER THIS MORNING WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND CLEARING
SKIES BY THE MID TO LATE MORNING HOURS.

A STRONG VORT MAX WITHIN THE UPPER TROUGH WILL THEN TRACK ACROSS
CENTRAL WI DURING THE AFTERNOON. THIS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO PERIODS
OF BROKEN CLOUD COVER TOWARD CENTRAL WI WITH PARTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE. GUSTY WLY WINDS AND COLD ADVECTION WILL
PREVAIL. 925 MB TEMPS WILL STILL WARM TO 16C BY LATE IN THE
DAY...THUS WENT WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S.

FOR TNT THE LARGE OCCLUDED SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE SLOWLY ESEWD
ACROSS ONTARIO CANADA. SRN WI SHOULD REMAIN FAR ENOUGH SOUTH FOR
MO CLEAR SKIES UNTIL TUE. LOWS IN THE 50S.

.SHORT TERM...MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE
IS MEDIUM.

MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH THE CLOSED 500 MB LOW MOVING
SLOWLY EASTWARD ACROSS THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL GREAT LAKES REGION
DURING THIS PERIOD. SOUTHERN WISCONSIN REMAINS WITHIN THE CYCLONIC
FLOW OF THIS LOW...WITH SEVERAL VORTICITY MAXIMA MOVING THROUGH.
AREA FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR SCATTERED TO
BROKEN STRATOCUMULUS DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA...PERHAPS ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA AS
WELL.

FOR NOW...WILL FOCUS THE CLOUDS OVER THE NORTH AND EAST...BUT IT
MAY NEED TO BE EXPANDED OVER THE REST OF THE AREA IN LATER
FORECASTS. SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS TIGHT ON MONDAY...SO
EXPECT GUSTY WEST WINDS TO LINGER. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES TOWARD THE
AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...BRINGING LIGHTER WINDS.
COOL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED DURING THIS PERIOD...GIVEN THE
EXPECTED 925 MB TEMPERATURES.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS
MEDIUM.

GFS/ECMWF ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT WITH
FEATURES. THEY SHOW THE CLOSED 500 MB LOW FINALLY PUSHING FAR
ENOUGH TO THE EAST WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY TO GET THE AREA INTO A
MORE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW PATTERN. THERE COULD STILL BE SOME
STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS WEDNESDAY...BEFORE THE 500 MB LOW PUSHES AWAY
FROM THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE SLIDES SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...BRINGING DRY
CONDITIONS AND SLOWLY MODERATING TEMPERATURES.

GFS/ECMWF THEN DIFFER QUITE A BIT FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. THE ECMWF
BRINGS A 500 MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...WITH QPF ASSOCIATED WITH IT AND A PASSING
SURFACE LOW TO THE SOUTHWEST OF WISCONSIN. THE GFS DOES NOT HAVE
THIS SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT...AND IS DRY. IT DOES BRING A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY...WITH A WARM FRONT NEAR OR JUST NORTH
OF THE AREA. QPF OCCURS IN THE AREA WITH THESE FEATURES ON
SATURDAY. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY THIS FAR OUT...USED CONSENSUS
MODEL BLENDED POPS AND TEMPERATURES FOR FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...COMING SOON...

&&

.MARINE...COMING SOON...

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM CDT THIS
     EVENING FOR LMZ644>646.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LMZ643.

&&

$$

TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...GEHRING
MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...WOOD



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