Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI

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FXUS63 KMKX 120533
AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
1133 PM CST Sun Feb 11 2018

.UPDATE...The forecast is on track for tnt. Lows temps in the
single digits for Mon AM with wind chills below zero.



&&

.AVIATION(06Z TAFS)...Mostly clear skies and VFR conditions
tnt-Mon nt.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... (Issued 928 PM CST Sun Feb 11 2018)

UPDATE...The forecast is on track for tnt. Lows temps in the
single digits for Mon AM with wind chills below zero.

MARINE...Modest nwly winds tnt become light for Mon-Mon nt. Low
wave heights in ice free areas.

PREV DISCUSSION... (Issued 553 PM CST Sun Feb 11 2018)

UPDATE...A cold front currently moving into west central WI will
pass across S WI later this evening. The cold advection and clear
skies will drop the temps to zero to 5 above by sunrise Mon. Wind
chills of 5 below to 15 below for Mon AM as well. Temps will be
able to rebound to near 20F for Mon afternoon.

AVIATION(00Z TAFS)...Mostly clear skies and VFR conditions tnt-
Mon nt.

PREV DISCUSSION... (Issued 252 PM CST Sun Feb 11 2018)

SHORT TERM...

Tonight and Tomorrow...Forecast Confidence High.

Skies have cleared this afternoon in the wake of the morning snow,
and west winds will increase a bit this afternoon and evening as
high pressure builds into the area. Those winds should decrease
later tonight, and when combined with clearing skies and fresh
snow, should set the stage for a very chill night tonight.
Overnight lows should generally be between 0 and -5, with slightly
warmer readings between 0 and +5 near the lakeshore.

Surface high pressure will move overhead Monday, giving the region
a fairly nice day with sunny skies and light winds. Temperatures
on Monday will top out in the upper teens to around 20 degrees.

Monday night and Tuesday...Forecast Confidence...Medium

Zonal upper flow with the entrance region of the jet moving off as
a second jet forms over northern Illinois. Weak upper level
divergence and 700 mb upward motion. 700 mb RH increases, but
saturates to the north. Low levels are rather dry. A weak
southwest flow begins, with a moderation in temperatures.

LONG TERM...

Tuesday night and Wednesday...Forecast Confidence...Medium

The upper flow becomes more southwest. The southwest surface
flow increases, along with low level moisture. As a result
stratus may form.

Wednesday night through Thursday night...Forecast Confidence...Medium

A broad mid/upper trough approaches.

The GFS and ECMWF brings a cold front through Wednesday. The GFS
is mainly dry during this period. The ECMWF and Canadian bring a
low along the front, with precipitation reaching southern
Wisconsin Thursday into Thursday night. However the ECMWF has a
more rain scenario, with snow on the Canadian.

Friday through Sunday...Forecast Confidence...Medium

A more west/northwest upper flow is in place, before it becomes
more saturday night ahead of a strong shortwave over the northern
Rockies.

Looks like more quiet weather with a renewed warm air advection
pattern setting up Saturday, after a surface high moves off.

AVIATION(18Z TAFS)...

VFR conditions are expected to prevail for the rest of the TAF
cycle. The main concern for the rest of this afternoon into the
mid evening hours will be a period of increasing westerly wind
gusts, with a few gusts in the 15 to 20 kt range. This could cause
some minor blowing/drifting of snow across airfield surfaces.

Winds will decrease later this evening as surface high pressure
moves south toward the area. Light winds and clear skies are
expected through the day on Monday.

MARINE...

Light winds on Monday will give way to southerly winds on Tuesday
and Wednesday. Waves will increase in response, though variable
ice cover in the nearshore waters will likely limit wave action to
some degree. It`s plausible that winds may reach Small Craft
Advisory criteria on Wednesday afternoon.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
LM...None.
&&

$$

Update...Gehring
Tonight/Monday and Aviation/Marine...Boxell
Monday Night through Sunday...Hentz



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