000
FXUS63 KMPX 022200
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
400 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 400 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015

MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS WAS INCREASING RAPIDLY THIS AFTERNOON TO THE
WEST AND SOUTH OF THE TWIN CITIES WITH EVEN SOME ECHOES NOTED ON
RADAR. NOTHING REACHING THE GROUND YET BUT THAT WILL CHANGE THIS
EVENING AS UPGLIDE AND STRONG LOW LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION
CONTINUE TO INCREASE. HIRES MODELS SHOW SOME LIGHT SNOW BEGINNING
AROUND THE TWIN CITIES BY 9 PM WITH THE AREA PUSHING NORTH AND
EAST DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING. SOUTH CENTRAL AREAS OF
MN MAY NOT SEE MUCH SNOW UNTIL LATE IN THE NIGHT. WE ARE STILL
SEEING THE MAIN BAND OF MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS PUSHING INTO WEST
CENTRAL MN DURING THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS AND
THEN MOVING QUICKLY TO THE EAST TUESDAY MORNING. THE
MADISON...APPLETON...MORRIS...ALEXANDRIA...STAPLES AND LITTLE
FALLS AREAS ARE STILL WHERE THE MOST SNOW ACCUMULATION (5 INCHES) IS
EXPECTED OUT OF THIS SYSTEM BY LATE IN THE MORNING ON TUESDAY.
BECAUSE THE FORCING AND MOISTURE MOVE QUICKLY EAST ON
TUESDAY...AMOUNTS DROP OFF TO 3 TO 4 INCHES FROM ST CLOUD THROUGH
THE TWIN CITIES TO EAU CLAIRE WITH 2 TO 3 INCHES SOUTH OF THE TWIN
CITIES TO THE IOWA BORDER. THESE AMOUNTS ARE BASED ON A CONSENSUS
OF THE GFS AND ECMWF WHICH HAVE HELD FAIRLY CONSISTENT OVER THE
PAST SEVERAL DAYS. COMPLICATING MATTERS TODAY WERE THE ARW AND NMM
SOLUTIONS THAT HAVE ABOUT TWO-THIRDS OF THE QPF THAT IS CURRENTLY
IN THE FORECAST. HENCE...MUCH LESS SNOW ACCUMULATION...ESPECIALLY
TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE TWIN CITIES. THIS IS TROUBLESOME IF IT
DOES COME TRUE FOR THE EXPECTED BLIZZARD CONDITIONS DEVELOPING IN
THE LOWER END OF THE MN RIVER VALLEY ON TUESDAY. WITH THE GOOD
CONTINUITY BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND GFS ON THE PATTERN OF THE
PRECIPITATION...KEPT THE SNOW AMOUNTS PRETTY MUCH AS WE HAVE HAD
THEM THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS. THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE ALSO BEEN VERY
CONSISTENT ON SHOWING 25 TO 30 KNOT SUSTAINED WINDS MOVING DOWN
THE MN RIVER VALLEY ON TUESDAY. GFS BUFKIT PROFILE DATA STILL
SHOWS GUSTS REACHING THE 40 KNOT RANGE. THE LOW LEVEL SATURATED
PROFILE IS PRETTY MUCH IN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE THROUGH MID
AFTERNOON. THEREFORE...CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH WITH THE BLIZZARD
WARNING. NO CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE WARNINGS OR ADVISORIES.

BEYOND TUESDAY...A VERY COLD PERIOD IS IN STORE THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING. HIGHS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO FOR WEDNESDAY WITH
LOWS FROM 5 BELOW TO 15 BELOW ZERO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. APPARENT
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 20 BELOW TO 30 BELOW ZERO RANGE LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015

NOT TOO MANY CHGS IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH THE MEAN LONG WAVE
TROUGH HOLDING STRONG ACROSS EASTERN NORTH AMERICA AFTER
TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY STORM SYSTEM. TWO SUBTLE SHRTWV/S WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE UPPER MIDWEST IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD...WITH THE BEST CHC OF
ANYTHING MEASURABLE OVER THE WEEKEND. BUT AGAIN THIS IS HIGHLY
DEPENDENT ON STRENGTHEN OF THE WAA AND LOCATION OF THE SFC LOW WHICH
IS CURRENTLY NE OF MPX CWA. BY NEXT MONDAY...SUBTLE HINTS OF THE
LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL MODIFY AND MOVE FURTHER TO THE EAST/NE ACROSS
FAR EASTERN NORTH AMERICA. THEREFORE... A MORE ZONAL OR WSW FLOW
DEVELOPS FOR OUR REGION BY LATE NEXT WEEK. EVEN THE EXTENDED
ENSEMBLES OF THE NAEFS HAVE TRENDED TOWARD A WARMER REGIME ACROSS
THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS NEXT WEEK. THIS IS ALSO
DEPENDENT ON A MUCH DEEPER LONG WAVE TROUGH DEVELOPING ACROSS THE
WESTERN PART OF NORTH AMERICA. THE LATEST GFS IS MUCH MORE
PROGRESSIVE OF THIS LONG WAVE TROUGH COMPARED TO THE LATEST EC.
SO...AM HESITANT TO ADVERTISE A MUCH ABV TEMPERATURE FORECAST...AND
MORE OF A NORMAL FORECAST. EVEN NORMAL TEMPS FOR THE MIDDLE OF MARCH
ARE NEAR 40 DEGREES FOR A HIGH IN THE TWIN CITIES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1150 AM CST MON MAR 2 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TERMINALS DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING. CIGS WILL GRADUALLY LOWER FROM WEST TO EAST IN
THE EVENING AS LIGHT SNOW MOVES INTO OUR AREA...WITH IFR
CONDITIONS LIKELY AT ALL TERMINALS OVERNIGHT SHORTLY AFTER THE
SNOW BEGINS. SNOWFALL RATES WILL LIKELY INCREASE BY THE EARLY
MORNING...ESPECIALLY AT OUR WESTERN AND NORTHERN TERMINALS WHERE
LIFR VISIBILITY IS POSSIBLE THROUGH 18Z. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH MOST OF MN BY 18Z WITH STRONG WINDS DEVELOPING IN ITS
WAKE...AND VLIFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT AXN AND RWF BY THE
LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON TUESDAY. NW WINDS COULD GUST UP
TO 30-35 KTS BY 18Z AT THOSE LOCATIONS WITH BLOWING SNOW...LIKELY
LEADING TO VERY POOR VISIBILITY.

KMSP...VFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY THROUGH THE LATE EVENING...WITH
INCREASING LOW-MID LEVEL CLOUDS BY THIS TIME. SOME MODELS ARE
SHOWING LIGHT SNOW STARTING AS EARLY AS 05Z...BUT DUE TO DRY AIR
PRESENT THERE IS NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS AT
THIS TIME. LIGHT SNOW IS LIKELY TO START AROUND 08Z...AND
CONDITIONS WILL QUICKLY DETERIORATE TO IFR ONCE THE SNOW BEGINS.
IFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON...AND THE
SNOW WILL END AROUND THIS TIME...BUT WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NW
AND INCREASE RAPIDLY AROUND 18Z TUESDAY. GUSTS UP TO 30-32 KTS ARE
POSSIBLE BETWEEN 21Z-00Z...WHICH WILL LIKELY LEAD TO BLOWING SNOW
AND REDUCED VISIBILITY.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
WED...VFR. WINDS NW 15G20 KTS.
THU...VFR. WINDS SW 5-10 KTS.
FRI...VFR. WINDS W 5 TO 10 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 9 AM TO 9 PM CST TUESDAY FOR MNZ057-058-
     065>067-073>076-082>085-091>093.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 PM CST
     TUESDAY FOR MNZ041>044-049-050.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 9 PM CST TUESDAY FOR MNZ045-
     051>053-059>063-068>070-077-078.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM CST
     TUESDAY FOR MNZ047-048-054>056-064.

     BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 6 AM TO 9 PM CST TUESDAY FOR MNZ047-048-
     054>056-064.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM CST
     TUESDAY FOR MNZ057.

WI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 9 PM CST TUESDAY FOR
     WIZ014>016-023>028.

&&

$$

WEB DSS...JRB
SHORT TERM...RAH
LONG TERM...JLT
AVIATION...ADL