000
FXUS63 KMPX 241949
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
249 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 233 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

SHORT TERM CONCERNS REMAIN COVERAGE OF THUNDER OVERNIGHT INTO
FRIDAY.  ALSO...CHANCE OF LARGE HAIL MAINLY LATER TONIGHT INTO SOUTH
CENTRAL MN WITH SOME SEVERE POTENTIAL LINGERING INTO FRIDAY AHEAD OF
FRONT.

UPPER RIDGE IS BEGINNING TO MOVE EAST WITH ONE IMPULSE DROPPING
SOUTHEAST OVER WESTERN MINNESOTA AND THE NEXT WAVE LIFTING INTO
NORTHWEST NODAK AND SOUTHERN MANITOBA. IT APPEARS THE INITIAL WAVE
WILL DROP SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING ALONG THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
INSTABILITY GRADIENT TO THE WEST AND THE EDGE OF LOW LEVEL WAA/STEEP
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. MODELS DIVERGE ON DEVELOPMENT THEREAFTER...
WITH SEVERAL HIRES MODELS INDICATING CANADIAN SYSTEM TAKES OVER AND
DROPS SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT.  STILL SOME POTENTIAL OF LLJ DRIVING
CONVECTION INTO MAINLY SOUTH CENTRAL MN LATE.  WILL CARRY HIGHER
POPS TO THE SOUTH ONCE AGAIN...IN SPIRIT WITH THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST.  SHOULD SEE SOME QPF MOVE THROUGH THE MOST OF AREA.

FRIDAY STILL SEE SOME POTENTIAL OF ISOLATED/WIDELY SCATTERED
CONVECTION DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE EASTERN
PORTION OF THE AREA INTO THE AFTERNOON.  WILL HOLD ONTO SOME LOW END
POPS FOR THIS POTENTIAL.  INSTABILITY ALONG THE FRONT DOES INCREASE
DURING THE DAY BUT LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE REMAINS WEAK.  MUCH OF THE
HIGH END FORCING IS DRIVEN EAST DURING THE MORNING AS WELL.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM INTO THE MID 80S TO THE SOUTHWEST WITH MIX
WITH THE WEAK FRONT AND UPPER 70S/LOWER 80S ELSEWHERE.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 233 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

MAIN CONCERN IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD IS WHETHER SHRA/TSRA DEVELOP
FURTHER SOUTHWARD ACROSS MN THAN EXPECTED FOR LATE SAT AFTN/EARLY
SUNDAY AS A STRONG...AND UNUSUAL UPPER LOW FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR
MOVES EAST-SE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS...AND INTO THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES BY SUNDAY. WILL FOLLOW PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH THE MAIN
AREA OF SHRA ACROSS CENTRAL MN/EC MN AND WC WI WHERE BOTH UPPER
LEVEL ENERGY AND HIGHER RH FIELDS ARE EVIDENT. K-INDEX AND 85H
SHOWALTER INDEX FIELDS INDICATED MAINLY SHRA WITH SOME EMBEDDED
TSRA FOR THE TYPICAL DIURNAL TIME FRAME. SUNDAY MORNING/AFTN WILL
LIKELY BE BREEZY AS THE SFC LOW DEEPENS AS IT MOVES SE ACROSS THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES IN RESPONSE TO THE UPPER JET.

NO CHGS IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD BEYOND THIS WEEKEND WITH BOTH THE
EC/GFS ADVERTISING A STRONG UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OFF THE EAST
COAST OF NORTH AMERICA WITH A DEEPENING LONG WAVE TROUGH ACROSS
THE EASTERN 1/3 OF THE CONUS. THIS WILL KEEP OUR REGION COOLER
THAN NORMAL AND MAINLY DRY. ALTHOUGH COOLER TEMPS ARE
EXPECTED...STANDARD ANOMALIES ARE NOT TOO IMPRESSIVE COMPARED TO
THE DEEP SE U.S. WHERE ANOMALIES COULD DROP TO 2-3 BLW NORMAL.
FOR COMPARISON...OUR REGION WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER...BUT STILL
NICE FOR LATE JULY/EARLY AUGUST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1143 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

RADAR TRENDS SUGGEST SCATTERED ACTIVITY TO MOVE INTO WESTERN MN
THIS AFTERNOON. BELIEVE IT WILL HOLD OFF AT KSTC AND EAST THROUGH
MOST OF THE EVENING WITH THE BEST CHANCE MOVING IN AFTER 06Z
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE AREA. WILL BRING IN SOME
THUNDER TO KRWF THIS EVENING WITH PERHAPS A SHRA THIS AFTERNOON
BEFORE 23Z. WILL SPREAD THIS EAST OVERNIGHT...LEAVING ACTIVITY OUT
OF WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN DOE TO UNCERTAINTY. CAPE BUILDS INTO
FRIDAY AND MAY SEE SOME THREAT OF WIDELY SCATTERED ACTIVITY ALONG
AND EAST OF THE FRONT INTO THE AFTERNOON. APPEARS FROPA WILL ONLY
MAKE IT INTO WESTERN MN DURING THE AFTERNOON...AND EXITING WC
WISCONSIN AFTER 06Z SAT. SOME THREAT OF MVFR CIGS
DEVELOPING LATE TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY IF A MORE WIDESPREAD MCS
DEVELOPS. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY TO COVERAGE...SO WILL LEAVE VFR
INTO FRIDAY.

KMSP...
WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION PROB30 TSRA IN THE 08Z-12Z PERIOD...PER
MODEL DISCREPANCY IN OVERALL DEVELOPMENT/PLACEMENT DURING THE
NIGHT. TRENDS SHOULD FAVOR SOMETHING DEVELOPING FARTHER EAST AFTER
06Z FRI...LIKE WE HAVE IT AS LLJ AND INSTABILITY GRADIENT SHIFTS
EAST. SOME THREAT OF MVFR CIG INTO FRIDAY MORNING...BUT WILL LEAVE
VFR FOR NOW DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE. STILL SOME THREAT OF TSRA INTO
FRIDAY AHEAD OF SLOW MOVING FRONT INTO THE AFTERNOON...BUT
BELIEVE IT WILL BE RATHER ISOLD IN NATURE AND WILL LEAVE THIS OUT
FOR NOW. SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS AHEAD OF FRONT BECOMING WEST
INTO FRIDAY EVENING.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
FRI...CHC MVFR CIGS/ISOLD TSRA. WINDS SSE AT 5-10KTS.
SAT...VFR. WINDS WSW AT 5-10KTS.
SUN...VFR. CHANCE SHRA/MVFR CIGS. WINDS NW AT 10-15 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DWE
LONG TERM...JLT
AVIATION...DWE