Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN

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000
FXUS63 KMPX 222005
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
305 PM CDT MON SEP 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT MON SEP 22 2014

HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL THIS AFTERNOON...BUT IS PROGRESSING
SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE MIDWEST.  AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS EJECTING FROM
CALIFORNIA TO THE NORTHEAST AND IS CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE ROCKY
MOUNTAIN REGION. THIS SYSTEM WILL BEGIN SPREADING CLOUD COVER INTO
THE WESTERN FA OVERNIGHT...WHICH COMBINED WITH AN INCREASED PRESSURE
GRADIENT DUE TO THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER PUSHING FARTHER AWAY...WILL
MAKE FOR AT LEAST SOME MIXING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER ACROSS THE
WEST.  THE INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND MIXING WILL HELP HOLD LOW
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT IN THE LOW 50S.  FURTHER EAST...CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHTER WINDS WILL AGAIN ALLOW FOG TO DEVELOP IN PRONE AND LOW LYING
AREAS.  WESTERN WI LOOKS TO BE THE MOST VULNERABLE AREA FOR FOG AND
THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES IN THE FA TONIGHT.  WENT SLIGHTLY COOLER
THAN MOST GUIDANCE ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA DUE TO THE POTENTIAL FOR
STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING.

FOR TUESDAY...THE APPROACHING UPPER LOW WILL BECOME MORE OR LESS AN
OPEN SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND WONT HAVE MUCH OF A SURFACE REFLECTION.
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FA WILL NOT SEE MUCH OF ANYTHING FROM THIS
SYSTEM THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS TOMORROW...WITH PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES IN THE FORECAST AS CLOUD COVER BUILDS IN TO WESTERN MN. THE
CLOUDS WILL BE SLOW TO WORK EAST FROM THE SOUTH DAKOTA BORDER
OVERNIGHT TO NEAR THE TWIN CITIES BY EVENING. THE MAIN FOCUS WITH
THIS SYSTEM IS THE CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION AS IT MOVES IN. THIS
WAVE WILL BE RUNNING INTO A DRY AIR MASS...AND FORCING IS LIMITED.
HOWEVER...ENOUGH FORCING EXISTS TO WARRANT POPS ACROSS THE WESTERN
HALF OF THE STATE TOMORROW AND DESPITE THE LOW LEVEL DRY
AIR...SATURATION SHOULD OCCUR BUT AMOUNTS WILL SIMPLY BE
LIMITED...WITH NO MORE THAN ABOUT ONE TENTH OF AN INCH IN THE
FORECAST THROUGH THE DAY. DO NOT EXPECT THUNDER WITH THIS WAVE.
BEST LI`S REMAIN POSITIVE...AND THETA E DIFFERENCES FROM 850H-500H
INDICATE INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN TO THE WEST OF THE FA.  MUCAPE
AGREES AND SHOWS ALL INSTABILITY WELL TO THE WEST OF THE
MINNESOTA/SOUTH DAKOTA BORDER. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO
10-15 MPH ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE DEPARTING SURFACE HIGH.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT MON SEP 22 2014

THE UPPER LOW WILL BE IN THE PROCESS OF DECAYING BY TUESDAY NIGHT
AS A PORTION OF IT BECOMES SHEARED APART BY THE WESTERLIES ACROSS
CENTRAL CANADA. AS THE FORCING BECOMES LESS FOCUSED AND THE LIGHT
SHOWERS ENCOUNTER INCREASINGLY DRY AIR WITH NORTHEASTWARD
EXTENT...THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ACROSS ERN MN AND WRN WI ARE TOO
LOW TO MENTION. BY WEDNESDAY...THE ENTIRE CWA SHOULD BE
PRECIPITATION-FREE.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD...RIDGING WILL BUILD NORTHEAST
FROM THE ROCKIES INTO THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS BY
THURSDAY...BE CENTERED OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST WITH HEIGHTS IN THE
LOW 590S DM THIS WEEKEND...THEN SLIDE SOUTHEAST AND WEAKEN
SOMEWHAT BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL MEAN SEVERAL DAYS OF CLEAR
SKIES AND TEMPERATURES 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. RAISED HIGHS
INTO THE LOWER 80S ON FRIDAY AS THE WARMEST TEMPS ALOFT PUSH
IN...BEFORE ADVERTISING A SLOW COOLING TREND THEREAFTER AS THE
RIDGE BREAKS DOWN A BIT AND FOCUSES MORE ON THE EAST COAST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 110 PM CDT MON SEP 22 2014

FOR THE FIRST 6 HOURS...EXPECTING WESTERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS
TO PERSIST AR ABOUT 5-10 KNOTS ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. NEGATIVE
CU RULE CORRECTLY ASSESSED CU DEVELOPMENT MAIN EAST OF THE
MINNESOTA/WISCONSIN BORDER...WITH FEW CU SPREADING SLIGHTLY WEST
INTO EASTERN MINNESOTA. DID ADD A TEMPO FOR MVFR CIGS AT EAU
CLAIRE FOR THE THIS AFTERNOON GIVEN THICKENING CU DECK THERE.
WINDS WILL SLACKEN NEAR SUNSET AND REMAIN GENERALLY LIGHT AND
VARIABLE OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS WESTERN WI AS THE SURFACE
HIGH AND RIDGE AXIS SLIDE EAST OF THE CHICAGO AREA TONIGHT.
INSERTED FOG INTO THE TAF FOR RNH AND EAU FOR OVERNIGHT INTO
TOMORROW MORNING. CROSSOVER TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S IN
WESTERN WI INDICATE SATURATION SHOULD OCCUR TONIGHT AND GIVEN
CLEAR SKIES AND VERY LIGHT WIND...REDEVELOPMENT OF FOG APPEARS
LIKELY. LEFT FOG OUT OF STC BECAUSE WINDS MAY BE ABLE TO CAUSE
JUST ENOUGH MIXING TO PREVENT SATURATION.

KMSP...A FEW CU WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON BUT OTHERWISE CLEAR
SKIES EXPECTED UNTIL LATE TOMORROW. ITS MUCH MORE DIFFICULT TO
SATURATE IN THE METRO SO LEFT FOG OUT OF TAF FOR TOMORROW
MORNING...BUT THERE SHOULD BE SOME FOG IN NEARBY RIVER VALLEYS. W
TO WSW WINDS WILL TURN TO SOUTHERLY BY 00-01Z AND REMAIN SOUTHERLY
THROUGH TUESDAY. MID/HIGH CLOUDS START TO SHOW UP NEAR THE END OF
THE TAF AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
WED...VFR...BUT MVFR CIGS PSBL OVERNIGHT. WINDS SSE 12-15 KTS.
THU...VFR. WINDS S 5-10 KTS.
FRI...VFR. WINDS SSE 5-10 KTS.


&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SPD
LONG TERM...BORGHOFF
AVIATION...SPD









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