Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN

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FXUS63 KMPX 240024 AAA
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
624 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

THE COLD FRONT IS SLOWLY MAKING PROGRESS TO THE EAST THIS AFTERNOON.
THERE IS A POST FRONTAL BAND OF RAIN THAT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
INTO THE EVENING...BUT SLOWLY LOSE INTENSITY WITH TIME. THE
800-600MB FGEN THEN INCREASES FARTHER EAST ACROSS EASTERN MN AND
WESTERN WI BETWEEN 04Z-07Z AS THE SURFACE CYCLONE BEGINS TO DEEPEN
AND MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. OUT
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...WE HAVE STRUGGLED TO SHAKE AN AREA OF
DENSE FOG IN EAST CENTRAL MN AND WEST CENTRAL WI. THIS HAS HELD ON
LONGER THAN EXPECTED AND WE SHOULD KEEP THIS IN PLACE UNTIL THE POST
FRONTAL AIR ARRIVES EVERYWHERE ACROSS THE CWA BETWEEN 03-06Z. IN THE
SHORT TERM...WE HAVE ALSO JOINED NWS OFFICES TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST
AND ISSUES A WIND ADVISORY BEGINNING TONIGHT AND LASTING THROUGH THE
DAYS TOMORROW. WIND THE AMOUNT OF PRECIP HAS SLOWLY TRENDED DOWN THE
PAST COUPLE DAYS..THE STRONG WINDS HAVE REMAINED A CONSISTENT
SIGNAL SINCE THE MIDDLE OF LAST WEEK. WE ARE SEEING 35-39KTS FROM
THE MIDDLE TO THE TOP OF THE MIXED IN WEST CENTRAL MN. THIS SHOULD
BE GOOD ENOUGH WITH THE COLD ADVECTION FOR GUSTS TO 45 MPH...ON THE
LOW END OF OUR WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA. FORTUNATELY...WE NOW EXPECT
LITTLE NEW SNOW AND THE SNOW PACK HAS BEEN SETTLED BY WARMER TEMPS
AND LIGHT LIQUID PRECIP.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

BIGGEST CHANGE EXPECTED IN THE LONG TERM IS A PATTERN SHIFT TOWARD
THE WARMER END OF THINGS THIS WEEKEND AS WE SHED OUR NW FLOW AND
TRANSITION TO A ZONAL FLOW AND ITS ASSOCIATED MILDER PACIFIC AIRMASS.

FOR THE START OF THE LONG TERM...THERE IS STILL A FAIR DEGREE OF
DISCREPANCIES BETWEEN THE MODELS IN HOW EXPANSIVE WRAP AROUND PRECIP
WILL BE ON THE BACKSIDE OF A DEEP SFC LOW THAT BY MONDAY NIGHT WILL
BE WORKING INTO THE STRAITS OF MACKINAC. NAM IS THE FARTHEST EAST
WITH PRECIP WITH VERY LITTLE IF ANY SNOW FALLING ACROSS THE MPX AREA
MONDAY NIGHT...WITH THE GEM HOLDING DOWN THE FORT ON THE WEST
SIDE...WITH BORDERLINE WARNING SNOWFALL FOR EAU CLAIRE AND
LADYSMITH. FOR THIS FORECAST...FOLLOWED THE ECMWF IDEA...WHICH WAS A
NICE COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE EAST AND WEST CAMPS...WITH AN
ADDITIONAL ONE TO TWO INCHES OVERNIGHT IN OUR EAST...WHICH WOULD
BRING STORM TOTALS BETWEEN MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT TO BETWEEN 2 AND 3
INCHES OUT IN EAU CLAIRE/LADYSMITH. AT THIS POINT...WE ARE NOT
ANTICIPATING SNOWFALL AMOUNTS NEAR 6 INCHES...SO FELT NO HEADLINES
WERE NEEDED.

TUESDAY WILL WILL SEE HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA...WITH THE NEXT CLIPPER ALREADY ARRIVING TUESDAY NIGHT. 12Z
MODELS SHIFTED SOUTH CONSIDERABLY WITH THE H7 LOW WITH THIS
SYSTEM...WITH THE NAM/ECMWF TAKING IT DOWN THE MN RIVER...WITH GFS
ACTUALLY TAKING THE H7 WAVE SW OF MN ALL TOGETHER. FORCING/MOISTURE
STILL LOOK SIMILAR WITH THIS SYSTEM TO WHAT MODELS WERE SHOWING LAST
NIGHT...WITH A QUICK 1-3 INCHES OF SNOW FALLING JUST TO THE NORTH OF
THE SFC LOW TRACK. ITS JUST THAT AXIS HAS SHIFTED FROM THE NW CORNER
OF MN TO HAYWARD LAST NIGHT TO MORE OR LESS STRAIGHT DOWN I-94
TODAY. GIVEN THE JUMPINESS STILL IN THE MODELS...DID HOLD POPS
AROUND 50% UNTIL THEY SETTLE IN ON A SOLUTION...BUT DID SHIFT
EXPECTED QPF/SNOW AMOUNTS SW FROM WHAT THE PREVIOUS SHIFT HAD.

AFTER THAT...THANKSGIVING DAY AND FRIDAY LOOK COLD...WITH HIGHS
LIKELY REMAINING BELOW OUR AVERAGE LOWS. THANKSGIVING LOOKS
DRY...BUT AS WARM AIR BEGINS TO RETURN...WE MAY SEE A QUICK HIT OF
WAA SNOW FRIDAY NORTH OF I-94 BEFORE THAT PIVOTS NORTH THE REST OF
THE WEEKEND.

FOR THE WEEKEND THINGS ARE BECOMING CONSIDERABLY MORE MUDDLED. THE
23.12 ECMWF SPED UP CONSIDERABLY THE TRANSITION TO ZONAL FLOW...WITH
A RATHER CRAZY TEMPERATURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE SRN HALF OF MN ON
SATURDAY...WITH H85 TEMPS NEAR -8C IN CENTRAL MN AND PUSHING +8C
DOWN ALONG THE IOWA BORDER. THE GFS SHOWS SOMETHING SIMILAR...BUT ON
FRIDAY NOT SATURDAY. AFTER THAT...THIS BOUNDARY LOOKS TO WAFFLE
AROUND THE MPX REGION INTO NEXT WEEK...LEADING TO LOWER THAN NORMAL
CONFIDENCE IN THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST FROM FRIDAY ONWARDS.

FOR PRECIPITATION...THE GFS/ECMWF SHOW SEVERAL ROUNDS OF PRECIP
OCCURRING NORTH OF THIS FRONT AS WEAK WAVES RIPPLE ACROSS THE ZONAL
FLOW. SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY...PRECIP LOOKS MINIMAL...BUT TO NORTH OF
THE BOUNDARY THERE COULD BE SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW FROM THE WEEKEND
INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. FOR NOW...THIS BOUNDARY LOOKS TO
SETTLE IN FAR ENOUGH NORTH WHERE THIS PRECIP IS PROGGED TO MAINLY
FALL ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 555 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

LIFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE ACROSS WESTERN WI EARLY THIS EVENING
WHILE MVFR OR VFR CONDITIONS EXTEND ACROSS MN. A BAND OF RAIN IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS ERN MN EARLY THIS EVENING...WHICH WILL TURN
TO SNOW BY MID EVENING AND SHIFT EAST INTO WISCONSIN OVERNIGHT.
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE AGAIN OVER MN UNDER THIS
BAND...BUT IN CONJUNCTION WITH STRONGER WINDS...SHOULD GREATLY
IMPROVE CONDITIONS ACROSS WI AS FOG DISSIPATES. MVFR CIGS WILL
PERSIST MONDAY WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS AND SCATTERED FLURRIES
OR SNOW SHOWERS.

KMSP...RAIN SHOULD BEGIN AROUND 02Z...TRANSITION TO SNOW BY 04Z
AND END AROUND 06Z OR 07Z. VFR CONDITIONS BEFORE 02Z WILL
DETERIORATE TO MVFR CIGS AND REMAIN THERE THROUGH THE REST OF THE
PERIOD.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
TUE...VFR. WINDS W 5-10 KT BECOMING SE.
WED...MVFR/IFR CHC -SN EARLY. WINDS NW 10-15KTS.
THU...VFR. WINDS LIGHT/VARIABLE.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...WIND ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 PM CST MONDAY FOR
     MNZ054>056-064-065-073>075-082>084-091>093.

WI...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR WIZ014>016-023-
     025-027.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CLF
LONG TERM...MPG
AVIATION...BORGHOFF







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