Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN

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FXUS63 KMPX 141846
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
1246 PM CST Thu Dec 14 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 1228 PM CST Thu Dec 14 2017

We remain under large scale cyclonic flow with a strong ridge in
place across the western CONUS and the parade of clipper systems
moving through the Upper Midwest. Currently, one such clipper is
sliding through the Dakotas toward Nebraska. Tonight, another wave
will move into northeastern MN and head east through the Great
Lakes.

This leaves us out of any measurable precip chance for the rest of
today and tonight. Instead, we will see cloudy skies with flurries
possible from the low stratus across the entire area. Thinking
the clouds mostly stay in place, but any scattering would once
again lead to temperatures dipping colder than advertised.

For tomorrow, the ridge shifts east and the baroclinic zone will
end up moving through our area ultimately setting up in a NW to SE
oriented fashion. This acitivity will be ahead of another wave up
in Canada. As theta-e advection increases in the morning, could
see light snow start to develop across west central MN and expand
eastward through the remainder of the day. Very little
accumulation is expected during the day. As we head into tomorrow
night, the best chance for an inch or so of snow will be from
northwestern MN through northwestern WI, so a glancing blow for
central MN and western WI.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
Issued at 1228 PM CST Thu Dec 14 2017

Snow will be ongoing at the start of the period thanks to the
aforementioned baroclinic zone across eastern MN and wester WI by
tomorrow night. Overall expect up to 1-2" of snow by Saturday
morning for part of western WI and northwest toward central MN.

The remainder of the weekend looks dry and it still looks like we
will warm above freezing both Monday and Tuesday. Overall pretty
quiet weather from Saturday through midweek.

The most interesting part of the long term is about a week away.
The ECMWF and GFS both develop a low pressure system out ahead of
a deep trough across the southwestern CONUS. We will have to keep
an eye on where that system will trend in the guidance. The 12Z
run of the ECMWF shifted it south a probably 200 miles, which
demonstrates the degree of uncertainty when run to run changes are
so large. Regardless of the track of this system, it does look to
cool down below normal after it passes.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
Issued at 1123 AM CST Thu Dec 14 2017

Continued cool cyclonic flow will reinforce stratus across the
region, but the guidance does indicate a few hour period this
evening through tonight of cigs rising to VFR levels. And given
this pattern and the shortwave dropping through the Dakotas, snow
flurries and sporadic snow showers will continue to move through
as well. Winds will behave quite well, generally from the
northwest around 10 knots or less. The next main wave shows up
right at the end of the TAF period and looks to mainly impact
northern MN and western WI will reduced vsbys in snow, but some of
those conditions could graze the I-94 corridor in Minnesota as
well.

KMSP...no accumulation expected from flurries and snow showers.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
Sat...Chc MVFR. Wind E 5 kts.
Sun...VFR. Wind NW 5 kts.
Mon...VFR. Wind SW 10-15 kts.


&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SPD
LONG TERM...SPD
AVIATION...SPD



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