Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN

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FXUS63 KMPX 121101
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
601 AM CDT SAT APR 12 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 410 AM CDT SAT APR 12 2014

SUBTLE UPPER LEVEL WAVE MOVING INTO MINNESOTA EARLY THIS MORNING WAS
PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS...WITH A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES ACROSS A
BROAD AREA FROM NORTHERN MINNESOTA THROUGH NORTHERN IOWA.  LATEST
HRRR INDICATES RAINFALL BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD NORTH OF THE TWIN
CITIES...TO MILLE LACS LAKE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THIS MAKES
SENSE GIVEN THE STRENGTHENING LLJ OVER THE NEXT 2 OR SO
HOURS...WHICH WILL LEAD TO BETTER WAA INDUCED LIFT AND MORE AMPLE
MOISTURE. MUCAPE LOOKS TO REMAIN CONFINED TO SOUTHERN MINNESOTA INTO
WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN...AND ANY THUNDER WILL BE ISOLATED. THIS
RAINFALL WILL MOVE QUICKLY EAST THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH
MIDDAY...AND FILTERED SUN UNDER JUST HIGH CLOUD COVER WILL BE SEEN
THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL AGAIN BE WARM AS LITTLE HAS
CHANGED IN TERMS OF THE THERMAL RIDGE OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS. FOR
TONIGHT...THE THEME WILL BE COOLING TEMPERATURES. STRONG COLD AIR
ADVECTION AT 850H WILL ENSUE BY THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 410 AM CDT SAT APR 12 2014

WE LIKE THE BETTER CONSISTENCY AND AGREEMENT IN THE SUN-MON
TIME FRAME FOR POPS AND TEMPS. THE 12.00/06Z NAM STILL REMAINS A
BIT FARTHER NORTH WITH THE SURFACE TROUGH AND QPF AXIS ON
SUNDAY...BUT THE SOUTHERN SHIFT FROM LAST NIGHT IS ENCOURAGING AND
GIVES MUCH US HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN KEEPING A VAST MAJORITY OF THE
PRECIP ACROSS NORTHEAST IA AND SOUTHWEST WI NEAR THE 850-700MB
FGEN. THE GFS LOOKS ABOUT THE SAME AS WHAT WE WERE SEEING LAST
NIGHT AT THIS TIME AND THE ECMWF MIGHT JUST BE A HAIR NORTH AND
NOW IS IN CLOSER AGREEMENT WITH THE GFS. AT THIS POINT...SOUTHERN
MN AND WEST CENTRAL WI MISS OUT ON MUCH OF THE RAIN...BUT WE STILL
HAVE CHANCE-TO-LIKELY POPS IN SOUTH CENTRAL MN AND WEST CENTRAL WI
AND EVEN SOME SMALL POPS IN THE TWIN CITIES METRO FOR LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS AND A DECENT CHANCE OF A CHANGEOVER TO LIGHT SNOW SUNDAY
NIGHT IF PRECIP REMAINS WHEN THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN COOLS WITH THE
PRESENCE OF COLD ADVECTION. THE LIGHT RAIN MIGHT JUST COME TO AN
END BEFORE THE TEMPS COOL ENOUGH...SO WE HAVE ARE NOT TOO
CONCERNED ABOUT ACCUMULATING SNOW. SUNDAY-WEDNESDAY STILL LOOKS
COLD AND AS MENTIONED ABOVE. THE THERMAL PROFILE OFF THE GFS NOW
MATCHES THE PREVIOUS ECMWF RUNS THAT SHOW A SLOWER/DEEPER TROUGH
AND A NICE 850MB COLD POCKET. THE MORE AMPLIFIED PATTERN EARLY
NEXT WEEK IS ALSO BEING HIGHLIGHTED IN THE NAM/GEM NOW. SO...JUST
AS WE GET APRIL`S MONTHLY TEMPERATURE BACK UP NEAR NORMAL...WE
SHOULD DROP IT BACK DOWN WITH 20S FOR LOWS AND 40S FOR HIGHS. BY
LATE NEXT WEEK THE GFS AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS SHOW MAJOR DEVIATION
FROM ONE ANOTHER AND THEIR ENSEMBLE COUNTER PARTS ARE CLOSER TO
ONE ANOTHER. IT`S MAINLY A TIMING ISSUE...SO WE HAVE LOW
CONFIDENCE IN TEMPERATURE SPECIFICS ON THURSDAY...FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 552 AM CDT SAT APR 12 2014

RAIN WILL HAVE MOVED EAST OF AXN/STC/RWF BY 12Z...WITH MSP ON THE
FRINGE...AND RNH AND EAU HAVING TO ENDURE A FEW HOURS OF LIGHT
RAIN. MAIN AVIATION CONCERN TODAY IS ACROSS EASTERN SITES...WHERE
THE POSSIBILITY OF LOWER CEILINGS DEVELOPING EXISTS. RAP IS
ADAMANT IN 850H MOISTURE BUT NAM DISAGREES. THE HRRR INDICATES MSP
WILL BE ON THE EDGE...WITH BEST CHANCES FOR MVFR THREATENING RNH
AND EAU. FOR NOW...LEANED TOWARD THE NAM IN SUPPORT OF DRY AIR
PREVAILING...DESPITE RAINFALL EARLY THIS MORNING. AMOUNTS THIS
MORNING WILL BE LIGHT. DID KEEP A MENTION OF STRATUS IN THE
FORECAST FOR MSP/RNH/EAU AND THIS WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED AND
TWEAKED BY UPCOMING SHIFTS.

KMSP...ON THE PERIPHERY OF THE DEPARTING SHOWERS BY 12Z. THESE
SHOWERS PROVED TO BE A NON ISSUE IN TERMS OF VISIBILITY...AND WILL
QUICKLY EXIT THE METRO THIS MORNING. AS MENTIONED ABOVE...LOW
LEVEL STRATUS COULD DEVELOP/LINGER AT MSP...BUT THE BEST CHANCES
LOOK FURTHER EAST.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SUN...MAINLY VFR. CHC MVFR CIGS/SHRA. WINDS N 10-15 KT.
MON...VFR. WINDS NW 10-15 KT.
TUE...VFR. WINDS NW 10 KT.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR WIZ025-026-028.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SPD
LONG TERM...CLF
AVIATION...SPD






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