Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN

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FXUS63 KMPX 261204 AAA
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
704 AM CDT TUE APR 26 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 355 AM CDT TUE APR 26 2016

COMPARED TO THE LAST COUPLE MORNINGS...THIS ONE IS PRETTY QUIET.
THERE HAS BEEN A BAND OF RAIN...SNOW AND PERHAPS SOME SLEET NEARLY
STATIONARY IN THE ALEXANDRIA...LONG PRAIRIE...SAUK CENTER AND
LITTLE FALLS AREAS FOR MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES HAVE
BEEN ABOVE FREEZING...SO IT ISN/T OF MUCH CONCERN. PATCHY DRIZZLE
CONTINUES IN OTHER PORTIONS OF MN AND WI WHICH SHOULD GRADUALLY
DIMINISH THIS MORNING AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER BEGINS TO DRY OUT.
HOWEVER...CLOUDY SKIES WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE DAY WITH
TEMPERATURES RISING INTO THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S.

THE UPPER LOW OVER THE ROCKIES WILL PULL QUICKLY INTO THE PLAINS
TONIGHT BEFORE SLOWING ITS APPROACH A BIT WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL SEND
A BAND OF RAIN NORTHEAST INTO SWRN MN TONIGHT. A STRENGTHENING DRY
EASTERLY FLOW WILL LIMIT HOW FAR NORTHEAST THIS BAND CAN
PROGRESS...AND HAVE TIGHTENED THE POP GRADIENT A BIT KEEPING ANY
MENTION WELL SOUTH OF I-94.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM CDT TUE APR 26 2016

THE LONG TERM CONTINUES WITH THE ACTIVE SOUTHWEST FLOW REGIME
ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS. THE TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE SOUTHWEST
AND WILL EJECT THE NEXT TWO SYSTEMS TO THE NORTHEAST AFFECTING
MUCH OF THE CWA DURING THE PERIOD.

INITIALLY ON WEDNESDAY...THE LATEST DETERMINISTIC MODELS HAVE SLOWED
THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE RAIN.  THE SOUTHWEST SYSTEM HAS
SLOWED A BIT AND ITS OVERALL MOVEMENT WILL BE AFFECTED BY SIGNIFICANT
CONVECTION EXPECTED LATER THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE PLAINS. WE ALSO
HAVE DRY EASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW TO OVERCOME AS WELL. WE FOLLOWED A
300K ISENTROPIC FORECAST TIMING WITH THE PRECIPITATION.  THIS LEAVES
WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN DRY UNTIL WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. ANY
INSTABILITY IS RATHER LIMITED BUT WE DO WORK A PERIOD OF SLIGHTLY
NEGATIVE BEST LI`S OVER FAR SOUTHERN MN WEDNESDAY...SO WE
CONTINUED THE ISOLD THUNDER MENTION THERE.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING...LIGHT RAIN SHOULD CONTINUE
OVER MUCH OF OUR AREA TO THE NORTH OF A WEAKENING SURFACE LOW MOVING
EAST NEAR THE IA/MO BORDER.  LOWS IN THE LOW-MID 30S AND
TEMPERATURES NEAR FREEZING FROM THE SURFACE TO 850 MB OVER PARTS OF
CENTRAL MN AND WEST CENTRAL WI COULD RESULT IN A BRIEF RAIN-SNOW
MIX...BUT NO ACCUMULATION EXPECTED.  RIDGING ALOFT WILL EXPAND
THROUGHOUT THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...WHICH SHOULD FURTHER SUPPRESS
ANY REAL FORCING OVER OUR AREA. WE WILL CONTINUE THE DRY FORECAST
FOR FRIDAY.

THE LONG TERM MODELS EJECT ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FOR THE
WEEKEND AND CONTINUING INTO AT LEAST MONDAY.  THERE REMAINS
SIGNIFICANT MODEL DISAGREEMENT ON HOW STRONG THE RIDGING WILL BE
ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AND CANADA AND HOW FAR NORTH THE
PRECIPITATION WILL DEVELOP. THE ECMWF GIVES US THE BEST CHANCE OF
ANOTHER LONG DURING PRECIPITATION EVENT...LIFTING A CLOSED LOW
INTO THE AREA.  THE GFS SUPPRESSES THE LOW MORE AND LEAVES MUCH OF
THE CWA DRY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. IN ANY EVENT...WE EXPECT A COOL
PATTERN TO CONTINUE...WITH HIGHS RANGING CLOSE TO 10 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 704 AM CDT TUE APR 26 2016

WIDESPREAD IFR CIGS WILL LIFT TO MVFR LATE THIS MORNING AND
EVENTUALLY VFR BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. EAST NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND
10 KT WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

KMSP...BIGGEST CONCERN IS THE TIMING OF CIG IMPROVEMENT. FAIRLY
CONFIDENT THEY WILL HOLD FOR MUCH OF THE MORNING...BUT STEADY
PROGRESS IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
WED...MVFR LATE IN THE DAY. PM SHRA LIKELY. WIND E 15-25KTS.
THU...MVFR POSSIBLE. CHANCE OF SHRA. WIND E 10-15KTS.
FRI...VFR. WIND E 5-10 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BORGHOFF
LONG TERM...DWE
AVIATION...BORGHOFF



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