Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN

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000
FXUS63 KMPX 301732
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1232 PM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

.UPDATED FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...
ISSUED AT 1225 PM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 402 AM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

TODAY/S FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY WITH BREEZY CONDS ONCE
AGAIN DEVELOPING DURING THE MORNING. EARLY MORNING WV IMAGERY
DOES HAVE A FAIRLY STRONG SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED 90 KT JET
STREAK MOVING INTO NORTHERN ND. THIS SHORTWAVE WILL CAUSE SOME
-SHRA IN NORTHERN MN...AND AS FAR SOUTH AS MORA/RUSH CITY BY NOON.
HOWEVER...DRY ATMOSPHERE BLW 5K SHOULD SUPPORT ONLY SPRINKLES IF
THEY DEVELOP. ELSEWHERE...ONLY A FEW CLDS ARE EXPECTED. AFTN TEMPS
WILL BE SLIGHTLY HIGHER AS 85H TEMPS RISE A FEW DEGREES AND MIX TO
THE SFC. MID 80S ARE FAIRLY CERTAIN IN SOUTHERN/SW MN/WC MN...WITH
LOW 80S ELSEWHERE. NO OTHER CHGS FOR TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 402 AM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...FAIRLY PERSISTENT PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN ACROSS NOAM WITH A TROF TO THE EAST...INCLUDING A LARGE
ROTATING UPR LOW OVER HUDSON BAY...AND A RIDGE OVER WRN NOAM. THIS
WILL PROMOTE NWLY FLOW OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS. SFC HIGH PRES FROM
THE CANADIAN ROCKIES EXTENDING SEWD INTO THE NRN PLAINS WILL
MAINTAIN AN INFLUENCE OVER THE UPR MISS RIVER VALLEY REGION FRI
INTO SAT MRNG...KEEPING WARM AND DRY CONDS IN PLACE. THE PATTERN
BREAKS DOWN JUST ENOUGH OVER THE WEEKEND TO ALLOW A COMPACT LOW
PRES SYSTEM TO DRIVE SEWD FROM THE DAKOTAS INTO SRN MN AND SWRN WI
LATE SAT INTO SUN...WITH A MODEST BUCKLING IN THE H5 FLOW ALOFT
WHICH COULD POTENTIALLY LEND SOME UPR LVL SUPPORT. SFC DEWPOINTS
DO INCREASE INTO THE LWR 60S IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE PASSAGE OF
THIS SYSTEM...SO THERE DOES APPEAR TO BE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLD TO
SCTD SHWRS/TSTMS SAT NIGHT THROUGH SUN...BUT TIMING AND PLACEMENT
OF STORMS IS HIGHLY PROBLEMATIC TO DETERMINE ATTM SO WILL CAP POPS
IN THE CHC RANGE. SEVERE WX POTENTIAL LOOKS LOW...BUT IS NON-ZERO
ATTM SO WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR LATER MODEL RUNS. TEMPS STILL
LOOK TO RUN WARM WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A MODEST COOLING TREND WILL COMMENCE
FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK BEHIND THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW
PRES SYSTEM PUSHING THRU THE REGION. SLIGHT H5 HEIGHT FALLS EARLY
NEXT WEEK ALONG WITH A SLIGHT EXPANSION OF THE ERN NOAM TROF WILL
ALLOW FOR A SMALL DROP IN TEMPS AS HIGHS FALL BACK TO THE MID 70S
TO LWR 80S. THERE LOOKS TO BE LITTLE PRECIP POTENTIAL MON-TUE AS
CENTRAL CANADIAN HIGH PRES WILL EXTEND SWD INTO THE UPR MISS RIVER
VALLEY WHILE UPR LVL FLOW BECOMES MORE MERIDIONAL...PREVENTING ANY
WX-MAKING SYSTEMS FROM IMPACTING THE AREA. HOWEVER...A MORE ZONAL
PATTERN DEVELOPS FOR WEDNESDAY WHICH WILL ALLOW A CONGLOMERATE OF
LOW PRES CENTERS TO SHIFT SEWD INTO THE REGION. DEEPER SWATHS OF
MOISTURE UNDER MODEST PERTURBATIONS IN THE UPR LVL FLOW WILL ALLOW
FOR ADDITIONAL SHWRS/TSTMS TO DEVELOP FOR WED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1225 PM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT. AFTERNOON GUSTS NEAR 20 KTS WILL
DECREASE AROUND SUNSET...AND PICK UP AGAIN FRIDAY MORNING.

KMSP...

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT. AFTERNOON GUSTS NEAR 20 KTS WILL
DECREASE AROUND SUNSET...AND PICK UP AGAIN FRIDAY MORNING.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SAT...VFR. WITH -TSRA POSSIBLE LATE. WINDS WSW AT 10G15KT.
SUN...VFR. WIND SW AT 5-10KT.
MON...VFR. WIND NW AT 10G20KT.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLT
LONG TERM...JPC
AVIATION...JRB


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