Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN

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FXUS63 KMPX 250332
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1032 PM CDT TUE MAR 24 2015

.UPDATE FOR 06Z TAF...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT TUE MAR 24 2015

SEVERAL FACTS WILL INFLUENCE SNOWFALL AMTS AND WHETHER ANY SLEET
FALLS DURING THE EVENING MAKING FOR MORE TRAVEL PROBLEMS.

INITIAL DRY ATMOSPHERE ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES AND THE
PREVAILING EAST/SE WIND AS KEPT THE PRECIPITATION FURTHER TO THE
SW OF OUR CWA THEN WAS PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. IN
ADDITION...THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE IA/MO BORDER EARLIER AND THE
SFC LOW ACROSS KANSAS HAS KEPT OUR REGION FROM HAVING THE OPTIMAL
MOISTURE ADVECTION FROM THE LOWEST 10K. ALTHOUGH WE DO HAVE
MOISTURE IN THE LOWEST 2K WHICH KEPT TEMPS FOR RISING TOO MUCH
ACROSS WESTERN MN IN CLDS/FOG TODAY.

THE BEST SCENARIO AND FORECAST FOR TONIGHT IS TO KEEP HIGHEST POPS
AND ASSOCIATED SNOWFALL AMTS IN FAR SC/EC/SE MN AND INTO PORTIONS
OF WC WI. EARLIER TODAY I DID CHG THE ONSET OF THE WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY BASED ON THE DRIER AIR AND PRECIPITATION DISSIPATING THIS
AFTN.

SEVERAL OF THE LOCAL SHORT TERM MODELS HAVE TRENDED FOR THE GREATEST
POTENTIAL OF 2+ INCHES OF SNOW IN SC/SE MN AND WC WI...SOUTH OF
RIVER FALLS AND MENOMONIE WISCONSIN. THIS IS ALSO WHERE THE
CURRENT WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT. CURRENT CONVECTION
IN SOUTHERN IA AND A SFC LOW IN EASTERN KANSAS WILL ALSO PLAY AN
IMPORTANT ROLE TONIGHT AS THE CIRCULATION AROUND THIS LOW DRAWS IN
DRIER AIR FROM THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES LATE THIS AFTN/EARLY
EVENING. ACROSS THE EASTERN DAKOTAS...THE SFC FRONT WILL KEEP A
SMALL AREA OF -RA/-SN IN WC/CENTRAL MN THIS EVENING. BUT THIS AREA
WILL BE MORE DISORGANIZED BASED ON THE SEPARATION OF THE TWO
WEATHER SYSTEMS MOVING ACROSS THE CONUS. IN ADDITION...SLEET
PROBABILITIES ARE LOW DUE TO THE NATURE OF THE STRONGER FORCING
SOUTH OF OUR CWA...WITH ONLY A SMALL AREA NEAR THE IA/MN BORDER
WHERE LOCAL CAMS HAVE SOME HIGHER REFLECTIVITY WHICH IS INDICATIVE
OF SLEET/OR +SN IF CONDS WARRANT. WILL KEEP LOCAL SNOWFALL AMTS
AROUND 2-4 INCHES FROM KAEL TO KEAU. ELSEWHERE...AMTS WILL BE LESS
THAN ONE INCH.

SPECIFICALLY...AN AREA OF -RA/-SN IN NW IA WILL CHG TO -SN AS IT
MOVES FROM SW TO NE ACROSS MN AND INTO WC WI OVERNIGHT. AS THE
SFC FRONT MOVES INTO WESTERN MN...ANY LEFT OVER PRECIPITATION
SHOULD END AS THE MAIN AREA OF PRECIPITATION PIVOTS TO THE N/NE
ACROSS NORTHERN MN TOWARD MORNING. WILL CONTINUE THE LOW CHC/S OF
-RA/-SN IN CENTRAL MN AND WC WI BASED ON THE CIRCULATION ACROSS
THE DEPARTING UPPER LOW IN SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 CDT TUE MAR 24 2015

THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD INCLUDES VERY LIGHT PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS IN THE FORECAST AND STARTING OFF WITH BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES BUT WARMING INTO NEXT WEEK.

THE SYSTEM EXPECTED TO IMPACT SOUTHERN MN AND WESTERN WI TONIGHT
THROUGH TOMORROW...WILL ADVANCE NORTHEAST AND EVENTUALLY MERGE WITH
ANOTHER DISTINCT WAVE/PIECE OF ENERGY THAT IS CURRENTLY MOVING
THROUGH WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. THIS MERGER WILL TAKE PLACE TOMORROW
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING AND IS THE FIRST FOCUS OF THE LONG TERM
PERIOD.  WE HAD BEEN CARRYING SOME LOWER POPS ACROSS CENTRAL MN
THROUGH NORTHWEST WISCONSIN...BUT DETERMINISTIC MODELS SUGGEST LOW
LEVEL DRYING WILL PUSH THE BEST CHANCE OF ANY MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION NORTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA. SO...PULLED MOST OF THE
POPS AFTER 00Z THURSDAY AND INSTEAD INSERTED FLURRIES/SPRINKLES
ALIGNED WITH THE SURFACE TEMPERATURES FROM MILLE LACS LAKE THROUGH
LADYSMITH.

FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...A SURFACE HIGH WILL DROP SOUTH OUT OF
CANADA AND MOVE DIRECTLY OVERHEAD BY MID DAY FRIDAY. THE CORE OF THE
COLDEST AIR ALOFT WILL MOVE DIRECTLY OVER THE GREAT LAKES SO WE WILL
BE TO THE WEST OF THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES...BUT 850MB TEMPS ARE
STILL EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE -10C TO -18C RANGE.  WITH THE CLEAR
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...EXPECTING SURFACE TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO
THE TEENS BY FRIDAY MORNING.

SATURDAY WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE AS SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS SETUP AS THE
HIGH MOVES EAST OF US.  A FAIRLY STRONG IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST
FROM MANITOBA THROUGH ONTARIO...WITH A TRAILING COOL FRONT EXTENDING
SOUTHWEST OF THE LOW.  THIS FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH OUR AREA ON
SUNDAY MORNING...AND THE POPS IN THE FORECAST SATURDAY NIGHT ACCOUNT
FOR LIFT AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. TEMPERATURES ACTUALLY WONT DROP MUCH
AT ALL HOWEVER AS THE WESTERN RIDGE WILL QUICKLY PUSH IN BEHIND IT.
SIGNS STILL POINT TO A WARMING TREND FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH THE
WESTERN RIDGE CONTINUING TO PUSH EAST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1030 CDT TUE MAR 24 2015

LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE TO THE EAST...TAPERING
OFF IN THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS AT MSP AND CONTINUING THROUGH 09-12Z
AT EAU AND RNH. BEHIND THE SNOW...IFR CIGS WILL PERSIST AS AMPLE LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL MAINTAIN A LOW STRATUS DECK THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING. CIGS WILL IMPROVE WEDNESDAY LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON AS
DRIER AIR MOVES IN BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH VFR LIKELY RETURNING
TO ALL TERMINALS BY 18Z. HOWEVER...WINDS WILL BECOME RATHER
STRONG...WITH SUSTAINED WINDS UP TO 25 KTS AND GUSTS AROUND 35 KTS
POSSIBLE DURING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

KMSP...SNOW IS EXPECTED TO END AROUND 06Z...BUT IFR CIGS WILL
LIKELY PERSIST DUE TO LOW CLOUDS THROUGH 14Z. CIGS WILL GRADUALLY
IMPROVE BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...AND VFR CONDITIONS WILL
RETURN AROUND 17Z WEDNESDAY. WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM THE SE TO THE
WEST WEDNESDAY MORNING...AND WILL INCREASE TO 20-25 KTS BETWEEN
17Z-01Z. GUSTS ABOVE 30 KTS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME PERIOD.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
WED NIGHT...VFR. WINDS NW 15G25 KTS EARLY.
THU...MVFR POSSIBLE EARLY. WINDS NNW 15G25 KTS.
FRI...VFR. WINDS NW 5-10 KTS BCMG SW IN THE AFTN.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR MNZ084-085-
     093.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR MNZ077-078.

WI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR WIZ024>028.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLT
LONG TERM...SPD
AVIATION...ADL



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