158
FXUS63 KMPX 101141
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
641 AM CDT Thu Jul 10 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Clusters of showers and thunderstorms possible through Friday.
  Predictability for any of these rounds is low, but heavy rain
  and gusty winds are possible with said clusters.

- Warm and mainly dry Saturday-Monday, then the next system to
  bring organized showers and storms arrives Tuesday-Wednesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 316 AM CDT Thu Jul 10 2025

A decaying line of thunderstorms has reached western Minnesota
early this morning. Earlier gusts of 45 mph at Madison and Canby
with the gust front have since become much lighter. Showers and
a few thunderstorms continue to bubble up along and behind the
gust front within an axis of deep low level moisture. This axis
will continue eastward through the morning which should keep
the threat for these going for at least a few more hours. An
extensive cirrus canopy shrouding the eastern Dakotas and
Minnesota should eventually scatter, although some CAMs do have
shower activity lingering into mid to late morning. Should
skies clear, daytime heating coupled with dew points increasing
into the upper 60s to low 70s beneath fairly steep mid level
lapse rates, especially across western Minnesota, will allow
instability to build fairly substantially this afternoon with
little capping. Weak disturbances could spark isolated to
scattered thunderstorms at any point. Outflows from those storms
could spark additional storms and eventually they may congeal
into clusters with time. Wind shear is rather weak which will
leave this activity disorganized, but some gusty winds and heavy
rain are possible into tonight. A cold front will approach
from the northwest Friday. A similar scenario is expected to
unfold with the development of clusters of storms through the
day and into Friday night.

High pressure will move in Saturday and make for a pleasant
weekend ahead with near normal temperatures, lower humidity and
sunny skies. The next weathermaker to watch is a positively-
tilted trough over the northern Rockies early week that will
work east to the northern Plains and Upper Midwest in the
Tuesday-Wednesday timeframe. A surface front will nearly stall
for a time from the central Plains to northern Great Lakes while
a mid level disturbance rides northeast along it. Showers and
thunderstorms developing within this corridor could bring heavy
rainfall amidst pwats possibly north of 2 inches.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 641 AM CDT Thu Jul 10 2025

MCV across southwest MN will slowly slide east today. A band of
showers will likely persist across southern MN for the next
several hours. Additional scattered showers and storms across
central MN in the vicinity of AXN and north of STC are nearly
stationary. Going through the day, pop up showers and storms
will likely continue and confidence for any particular location
being impacted is low. Kept the prob30s until it becomes apparent
a larger cluster or better organized activity with some
predictability will impact a TAF.

KMSP...The band of showers associated with the MCV should
remain to the south,. However, recent development to the
northwest lowers confidence further. Instead of littering the
whole forecast period with prob30s, highlighted later this
afternoon when instability maximizes.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
FRI...SHRA/TSRA likely. Wind SW 5-10kts bcmg NW 10-15kts.
SAT...VFR. Chc AM MVFR/SHRA. Wind NW 10-15 kts.
SUN...VFR. Wind SW 5-15 kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Borghoff
AVIATION...Borghoff