Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN

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FXUS63 KMPX 211821

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
121 PM CDT Mon Aug 21 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 334 AM CDT Mon Aug 21 2017

The short term concerns are convective/severe potential early and
again later this afternoon along frontal boundary.

Initially, SPC mesoscale analysis is showing MUCAPE to 2000 J/kg,
mid level lapse rates to 7.5 C/km and deep layer shear to 40kts in
the vicinity of the nearly stationary frontal boundary over northern
Iowa/Southeast MN. Scattered showers/storms developed shortly after
3 AM into south central Minnesota, close to overall track of the
HRRR. Some of these storms could contain hail and gusty winds during
the morning. This short term CAM lifts the area of showers/storms
northeast affecting the southeast corner of the state and moving
into west central Wisconsin. We will mention scattered
showers/storms as this moves through the area through about 16z.

Meanwhile the Dakotas trough has developed some scattered convection
as well. As it approaches the west we will have to include some
chance PoPs for that later morning/afternoon. As it moves into
Minnesota the surface boundary may work a bit farther north during
the day and will continue the threat of thunderstorms along across
the east and south into this evening. The severe threat remains over
the far south into west central Wisconsin into the evening the
trough moves through, pushing the front to the southeast.  Not
anticipating great viewing for the eclipse because of the convective
threat and overall clouds expected.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 334 AM CDT Mon Aug 21 2017

Troughing aloft over the eastern half of the CONUS with high
pressure at the surface regionally will yield continued cool
temperatures during the long term forecast period. With respect to
precipitation, chances will be low/limited into next Friday given
the dominance of surface high pressure, but then the arrival of a
surface trough next weekend brings increased shower and
thunderstorm chances.

The period starts out cool and dry, with highs in the upper 60s to
mid 70s on Tuesday and Wednesday. Wednesday afternoon into
Thursday weak ripples on the western periphery of the
aforementioned eastern trough could spawn a few showers, but
precip amounts and coverage would be very light.

By Friday evening there is relatively decent agreement amongst the
models that a surface trough will be bisecting the central
Dakotas, with a shortwave trough approaching from the northwest on
the heels of the eastern trough. As spokes of energy associated
with the trough to the northwest pivot across the area over the
weekend along with the surface trough, more widespread shower and
thunderstorm activity is expected. For now have kept precip
chances around 40 percent for the weekend, but will most likely be
able to bump those up once timing details are more certain with
subsequent model runs.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 118 PM CDT Mon Aug 21 2017

Energy starting to shift south toward storms coming out of
northern IA. The better instability is this direction and like
the idea of the HRRR that we will see a line of storms move
through southern MN. MKT will likely get hit by this line, but it
looks to stay south of MSP/EAU, though they may get a little
stratiform rain as the line passes south. Skies clear out tonight,
with enough wind around to keep fog at bay. Nothing more than a
breezy day expected Tuesday, with a few-sct cu field up around
5/6k feet.

KMSP...looks like MSP will miss the TSRA, but will get a period of
-shra with some embedded thunder between about 19z and 21z. After
that, MSP looks to be in the clear for precip.

WED...VFR. Wind N 5 kts.
THU...VFR. Wind SE 5 kts.
FRI...VFR. Wind SE 5-10 kts.




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