Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN

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FXUS63 KMPX 132057

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
357 PM CDT Fri Oct 13 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 149 PM CDT Fri Oct 13 2017

Surface analysis this afternoon puts a cold front emanating from
low pressure over Hudson Bay extending south into Lake Superior
then southwest through northwest Wisconsin into southeast
Minnesota and central Iowa. Weak high pressure over the Dakotas is
nudging east behind the front, contributing to clearing skies
slowly spreading east. Aloft, generally ENE-WSW flow is prevailing
while a longwave trough deepens over the Pacific Northwest and
subtropical ridging holds for over the southeastern CONUS. While
the ridge aloft is expected to remain in place through tomorrow
night, the trough will progress eastward over the Rockies and into
the Central Plains by tomorrow evening. The ridge will slow up the
progression of the front, allowing it to stall out from lower
Michigan through northern Missouri overnight. As the trough shifts
east, it will contribute to cyclogenesis over eastern Colorado.
The low is then expected to quickly move northeast along the
stalled front, moving to a position near the IA/MN/WI triple point
by tomorrow evening. A prolonged plume of deep South moisture will
be wrapped around the western periphery of the subtropical ridge
into the Upper Midwest, made available in advance of the
progression of the developing surface low for later tomorrow. This
combination of the approaching upper trough and surface low plus
the additional moisture will make for effective precipitation
generation tomorrow afternoon. Main difference from previous
forecasts is the timing as latest model runs have slowed the
spread of the rainfall from southwest to northeast. That said,
showers are still expected for much of the area by tomorrow
afternoon. As for temperatures, not much difference is expected
for highs tomorrow than from today, in the 50s area-wide. Lows
tonight behind the front will range from the mid 30s to lower 40s.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday)
Issued at 357 PM CDT Fri Oct 13 2017

The area will start out cool and rainy Saturday night, with a transition
to dry and mild weather thereafter.

Models are in quite good agreement about the strong upper trough
arriving Saturday night and exiting Sunday morning. Cold advection
will be strongest Saturday evening, and south central MN will be
most susceptible to the strong wind, possibly seeing 20 knots
sustained as the surface low intensifies and departs to the

Saturday evening, an axis of rainfall will be stretched out wsw-
ene across central MN into northwest WI, associated with a
deformation zone. Then another swath of rainfall will be to our
south and southeast. This means that southwest into east central
MN and west central WI may only see light rain tomorrow night,
where lift will not be as strong.

After this, upper flow turns northwest, and a weak short wave is
scheduled to arrive later Sunday. But this should only bring some
clouds from northern MN into western WI. But the northwest flow in
the wake of Saturday`s system means that max temperatures will be
5-8 degrees cooler than normal Sunday.

Once that goes by, the northern stream will remain north of our
area, with glancing blows from short waves and Pacific fronts
every couple of days. Monday through Friday should feature above
normal temperatures and dry weather. Toward the end of the week,
there seems to be reasonable agreement that another strong trough
will move into the middle to southern part of the west coast,
which could set the stage for an active pattern in this part of
the country a weekend from now. But that is beyond the time frame
in this forecast.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
Issued at 149 PM CDT Fri Oct 13 2017

VFR to start at all terminals although the clearing line behind
the departing cold front has not quite gotten through KMSP-KMKT
and points east. Any and all precipitation near the front will
remain south of all terminals. The clearing line is expected to
continue moving east, however, resulting in a period of mainly
clear skies (except possible FEW-SCT high clouds) this evening
into the early morning hours. Clouds will fill back in from the
west and south late morning through the day tomorrow. However,
precipitation looks slower to move into the area per latest model
runs so have reflected as such in the TAFs, along with a slower
deterioration of conditions. Winds will swing back from NW to NE
then SE over the next 24 hours with speeds mainly in the 5-10 kt

KMSP...Very few concerns tonight through tomorrow morning with VFR
in place. Only lowering ceilings through the morning push but
everything expected to remain above 5 kft. Tomorrow afternoon has
more concerns as rain is expected to move in from the southwest,
likely to drop ceilings into MVFR range for the start of the
evening push and potentially under 1700ft by the evening with
winds close to 040 direction. Will certainly need to be watched.

Sun...VFR. Wind NW 5-10 kts.
Mon-Thu...VFR. Wind SW 5-10 kts.




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