Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN

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FXUS63 KMPX 110543

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
1143 PM CST Tue Jan 10 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 410 PM CST Tue Jan 10 2017

The short term concerns remain advisory for blowing snow/wind and
snow ending into western Wisconsin early this evening.  Then more
snow expected into the day Wednesday

Snow tapering into western Wisconsin this afternoon. Still see some
streets of snow in the strong winds behind the departing area of low
pressure and upper trough over western Minnesota. Strong northwest
winds in steep lower level lapse rates/caa regime over the area.
WInd gusts around 35kts were common to the west. This generated the
poor visibility and drifting snow across the wets and south as the
low departed over Wisconsin. We expect winds to diminish from west
to east during the early evening and should help alleviate the
blowing snow issues. We will leave the advisory continue through
expiration for the wind/blowing snow and snow ending to the east.
Temperatures will continue to tumble to slightly below zero to the
far west and 5 to 10 above in the far east.

The next system is already fast on this systems heels...with
isentropic lift moving rapidly northeast over the northern cwa late
tonight. We continued the likely pops scenario developing north and
toward east central MN 09z-12z Wed. This will likely affect a
portion of the morning commute as well. At the moment we have a
healthy 2 inches across east central MN into west central WI.
Strong banded frontogenesis is forecast to drop south over the area
during the day Wednesday as the strong upper jet/150kt 30h jet moves
off to the east. The snow should end from northwest to southeast
through the day.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 410 PM CST Tue Jan 10 2017

The last in a string of weather systems will be exiting the area
Wednesday night with any residual light snow being East of the CWA
by daybreak Thursday. The departing clipper will leave one parting
gift for us as an arctic airmass and gusty NW winds follow in its
wake during the day on Thursday. Raised winds during the day
Thursday as forecast soundings show the potential for gusts of 20-25
kts at the top of the well-mixed, but shallow boundary layer. Winds
will quickly drop after sunset as a strong 1045 mb high slides over
the area Thursday night into Friday morning. The calm winds, clear
skies, and few inches of new snow this week will provide ideal
conditions for radiational cooling. Friday morning should see the
coldest temperatures since mid-December with lows in the -20s out
west to -10 along the I-90 corridor.

Thankfully, this shot of Arctic air will be short-lived as southerly
flow becomes dominant on the back side of the departing high with
temperatures warming into upper teens for Saturday & the mid-20s by
Sunday. Our only precipitation chances for the weekend look to be
Friday night across far southern MN as a weak shortwave approaches
from the south, but only a slight chance of light snow is expected
at this time.

The start of next week has the potential to be active
as as cutoff low ejects out of the SW US and treks towards the
Mississippi River valley Monday. However there is still disagreement
with Euro & GFS on how closely it approaches southern Minnesota and
as such, precipitation amounts are still unclear. Otherwise, warm
weather will continue into mid-week with temperatures averaging
around 10 degrees above normal.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night)
Issued at 1131 PM CST Tue Jan 10 2017

Skies have cleared behind the snow and strato-cu from this
afternoon, but the mid-high clouds have already started spreading
into western MN this evening - ahead of the next 1-2 bands of
light to moderate snow that will affect the TAF sites late tonight
and tomorrow morning. The first snowband has already spread into
KRWF with ceilings going from 10000ft to 2400ft and 3/4SM -SN. This
will likely be the trend with the snow this morning. There will be
a quick first band...then a lull...then a more pronounced 2nd band
that will mostly affect eastern MN and western WI. MVFR/IFR is
likely with the first band...with IFR/LIFR likely with the second
band that moves in later on this morning.


Another snow filled morning is looking more likely. There will
likely be an initial band for a couple hours before the morning
push (we sped up the timing of this lead band a little)...then a
lull...followed by a steadier and heavier band of snow that takes
shape before mid morning - possibly leading to visibility below
1SM and dropping 2-3 inches of snow.

Thu...VFR. Wind NW 5-10 kt.
Fri...VFR. Wind variable 5 kt or less.
Sat...VFR. Wind S 5-10 kt.




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