000
FXUS63 KMPX 110346
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1046 PM CDT MON MAR 10 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT MON MAR 10 2014

THIS AFTN TEMPS ARE A SIGN THAT SPRING IS JUST AROUND THE CORNER. IT
WOULD HAVE BEEN A LOT WARMER IF THE SNOW PACK ACROSS SOUTHERN MN WAS
NOT AS DEEP AS IN PREVIOUS YEARS.

THE MAIN CHG IN THE SHORT TERM IS TO INCREASE POPS ACROSS SOUTHERN
MN NORTH OF THE MN RIVER VALLEY...UP TO THE SOUTHERN SUBURBS OF THE
TWIN CITIES. MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING FURTHER NORTHWARD WITH THE
QPF AMTS SINCE YESTERDAY. IN ADDITION...WITH A BROAD AREA OF
PRECIPITATION ALREADY DEVELOPING ACROSS EASTERN MT/WESTERN ND...IT
SEEMS LIKELY THAT THE SOUTHERN 1/3 OF THE STATE WILL SEE SOME FORM
OF PRECIPITATION BY TUESDAY MORNING. MAX WET BULB TEMPS IN THE
LOWEST 1KM REMAINS WARM ENOUGH FOR THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION TO
BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN UNTIL 9-12Z TUESDAY MORNING AS COLD AIR
BEGINS TO FILTER ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTHERN MN. THE MAIN REASON FOR THE
INCREASE IN PERCENTAGES OF RAIN/SNOW BY MORNING IS THE 25H JET
ENTRANCE REGION IS MUCH MORE VIGOROUS BY LATE TONIGHT WHICH
TRANSLATES TO BETTER FORCING AT MID LEVELS. EVEN SOME OF THE SHORT
TERM MODELS AND ASSOCIATED FORECAST REFLECTIVITY RETURNS HAVE BEEN
LESS ENHANCED PRIOR TO TODAY/S RUN WHICH IS MUCH MORE ROBUST. ONLY
THE INITIAL DRY N/NE FLOW MAY INHIBIT SOME OF THE PRECIPITATION TO
REACH THE GROUND UNTIL 9-12Z. LATER SHIFTS WILL NEED TO MONITOR WHEN
THE PRECIPITATION FINALLY REACHES THE GROUND BASED ON WEB-CAMS AND
SFC OBS...AND SEE IF THE DRIER AIR IS STRONGER OR WEAKER. THIS WILL
TRANSLATE TO HIGHER QPF/SNOWFALL AMTS ONCE THE CHGS OVER TO SNOW
OCCURS TUESDAY MORNING. EVEN WHEN THE PRECIPITATION CHGS OVER TO
SNOW...SFC TEMPS WILL REMAIN AOB FREEZING LEADING TO LITTLE SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATIONS.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT MON MAR 10 2014

LONGER TERM ISSUES REMAIN TEMPERATURES TRENDS AND SMALL THREAT OF
SNOW OR MIXED RAIN/SNOW TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN
INTO THE WEEKEND.

COOLER START IN THE WAKE OF THE TUESDAY SYSTEM WITH NORTHERLY
WINDS AND CAA ADVECTION. RESIDUAL SURFACE TOUGH EXPECTED TO REMAIN
OVER THE EASTERN CWA INTO THEE AFTERNOON...HOLDING CLOUDS LONGEST
HERE. THIS IS SHORT LIVED HOWEVER AS THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS EAST
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. A WAA PATTERN DEVELOPS AND 290K
ISENTROPIC SURFACE SHOWS SOME SATURATION POTENTIAL OVER THE
EASTERN CWA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL SPREAD A SMALL CHANCE OF
LIGHT SNOW OVER THE NORTHERN CWA WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AND INTO
WESTERN WISCONSIN LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS A SURFACE
WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH.

WE SHOULD SEE A GOOD POTENTIAL WARM UP BEHIND THE FRONT
THURSDAY...AND MAY NOT BE WARM ENOUGH. THE LATEST VISIBLE
SATELLITE/NOHRSC MODELS SNOW DEPTH AND SNOW TEMPERATURES SHOW GOOD
RIPENING OF THE SNOW PACK TO THE SOUTHWEST. GOOD COMPACTION OF THE
SNOW PACK OCCURRING TO THE CENTRAL AND EAST. WE WILL SHUT DOWN
THE MELT WEDNESDAY...WITH A BRIEF WARM UP AGAIN INTO THURSDAY...AHEAD
OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT. A COOLING TREND IS EXPECTED FRIDAY AND
LINGERING THROUGH THE WEEKEND. IT APPEARS BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
RETURN FOR THAT TIME.

LONGER TERM MODELS REMAIN IN DISAGREEMENT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF
THE NEXT WESTERN TROUGH INTO THE WEEKEND. THE 12Z ECWMF IS MORE
PROGRESSIVE WITH THE HUDSON BAY LOW AND DRIVES THE PACIFIC TROUGH
EAST. WILL MAINTAIN SMALL CHANCE OF SNOW INTO SUNDAY OVER THE
WEST. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR MODELS AS TO DEVELOPMENT/MOVEMENT OF
THE TROUGH.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1045 PM CDT MON MAR 10 2014

A NARROW BAND OF LIGHT RAIN WILL ENTER WEST CENTRAL MN NEAR THE
START OF THE TAFS AND WORK ESE INTO THE TWIN CITIES BEFORE
DAYBREAK AND INTO KEAU AROUND DAYBREAK. IT STILL LOOKS LIKE
KAXN...KSTC AND KRNH ARE GOING TO BE ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE
PRECIPITATION SHIELD. KMSP AND KEAU ARE A LITTLE MORE IN LINE TO
RECEIVE A FEW HOURS OF RAIN AND SNOW. KRWF REMAINS THE SITE FOR
A FEW INCHES OF SNOW ACCUMULATION TUESDAY MORNING AS THE BAND OF
PRECIPITATION SINKS INTO SOUTHERN MINNESOTA. CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED
TO BECOME MVFR IN THE RAIN/SNOW MIX WITH MVFR OR LOWER VSBY. THE
BACK EDGE OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE SE OF THE TAF SITES EARLY
IN THE AFTERNOON WITH CEILINGS FORECAST BACK TO VFR. LIGHT WINDS
OVERNIGHT BECOMING N TO NW AT 12-15 KNOTS BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON
WITH GUSTS FROM 20 TO 25 KNOTS. WINDS DIMINISHING TUESDAY EVENING.

KMSP...LIGHT RAIN STILL EXPECTED TO BEGIN IN THE 09Z-10Z PERIOD
AND THEN MIX WITH SNOW AROUND 12Z WITH A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW
DURING THE MORNING. ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIGHT AND LESS THAN AN
INCH. IMPROVED CEILINGS TO VFR IN THE WAKE OF THE SNOW FOR TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AS WELL DURING
THE AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KNOTS.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/

WED...VFR. N WIND 8 KTS BCMG W.
THU...VFR. SW WIND 5-10 KTS.
FRI...VFR. W 10-15 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLT
LONG TERM...DWE
AVIATION...RAH