Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN

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FXUS63 KMPX 220923

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
423 AM CDT SAT OCT 22 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 423 AM CDT Sat Oct 22 2016

No changes to current forecast with plenty of sunshine today and
temperatures averaging 5 to 10 degrees warmer than on Friday. A
storm system will brush northern Minnesota tonight and early Sunday.
All of the precipitation will be north of MPX forecast area.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 423 AM CDT Sat Oct 22 2016

The long term forecast period starts off dry and benign, but
turns dramatically more active by the middle of the upcoming week.

On Sunday, a weak surface trough will be passing across the area.
The attendant forcing will be displaced well to the north, and
anticipate precipitation to stay over northern MN/WI. Will however
see some gusty northwest winds and a reduction in high temps
around 5 degrees from Saturday. Expect highs mainly from the
lower 50s to around 60.

Surface high pressure makes a brief return for Monday, and then
isentropic upglide noses into the area on Monday night and
Tuesday as an upper low enters the Pacific Northwest. There is a
small chance for showers late Monday night in response to the
thermal/moisture advection, but higher chances for showers and
thunderstorms look to occur Tuesday night and Wednesday as the
related surface low tracks from IA toward southern Lake MI. One
half to 3 inch rainfall amounts look to be common across the
forecast area, with higher amounts appearing possible in southern
MN. The threat for thunder is rather low given the progged
instability, but cannot entirely be ruled out along the Interstate
90 corridor. Heavy rainfall will be more of a threat.

Ongoing precip and increased cloud cover will hold temps in the upper
40s to mid 50s. By Thursday the precip looks to clear out,
although clouds will linger. It will still be a mild day however,
with highs primarily in the mid to upper 50s. Temperatures will
remain slightly above normal through the end of the week.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night)
Issued at 1049 PM CDT Fri Oct 21 2016

VFR conditions throughout. South Southeast winds have decreased and
will light and variable overnight. On Saturday winds should
transition to the northwest but remain light. By Saturday evening
winds will again go variable before they turn back to the southeast
again Saturday night.


VFR conditions throughout. Light south southeast winds will become
variable, and then should take on a west northwest direction on
Saturday before going calm again toward evening.
Winds will finally return out of the southeast as the next system
develops over the Dakotas.

Sun...VFR with afternoon MVFR clouds possible. Wind NNW at 15G20KT.
Mon...VFR. Wind SE at 05KT.
Tue...VFR early, then MVFR/-RA with IFR possible late. Wind E at


.MPX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


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