Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

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FXUS64 KHGX 161740

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1240 PM CDT Fri Jun 16 2017

With surface high pressure in control, VFR conditions will remain across
all terminals this afternoon through tomorrow. Winds will be
onshore throughout the TAF period, though should begin to pick up
in speed the early evening and overnight remaining between 5 to
10 knots. Expect a cloud deck to begin to lower in elevation
during the early morning hours between 09-12Z. This could result
in a short lived MVFR deck during this time period, before rising
once again in the late morning hours to VFR conditions.



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1041 AM CDT Fri Jun 16 2017/

Minor tweak to the forecast this morning mainly for the bays and
nearshore waters. Based on most recent observations, decided to
bumped up wind speeds closer to the coast between 10 to 15 knots
with the occasional gust through late morning. Wind speeds will
diminish slightly as we move into the afternoon hours. Otherwise
no changes made to the forecast.


PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 403 AM CDT Fri Jun 16 2017/

Debris clouds are spreading across Southeast Texas early this morning
with temperatures in the mid to upper 70s inland and around 80 at
the coast. Slightly above normal temperatures (both highs and lows)
will persist as we close out the week and will continue on through
the upcoming weekend as the area remains on the eastern fringes of
a mid/upper level high. Late morning through afternoon heat index
values for at least the next several days will be topping out
generally in a 102 to 106 range, and all heat safety precautions
should continue to be taken. NHC`s most recent Tropical Weather
Outlook continues to have a 50% chance of tropical cyclone formation
in/around the Yucatan Peninsula early next week. Rising Gulf of
Mexico moisture levels associated with this system will gradually
work its way westward across the Gulf as the week progresses but
will be fighting our area`s dry and subsident mid/upper level
ridge, so for now we`ll be carrying rain chances of 10% to 20% for
much of the week. Continue to monitor the latest NHC forecasts on
the potential Gulf system. 42

Generally light onshore winds over average 2 to 3 foot seas will
continue through the weekend...brief periods of caution wind
magnitudes during the overnight hours. An approaching and stalling
inland frontal boundary Monday will back winds more easterly early
next week. Light to moderate east to northeast winds will persist
through mid-week. Much uncertainty concerning the tropics late next
week so have just gradually strengthened southeasterlies and picked
up average seas into the 3 to 5 foot range from Thursday into
Saturday. 31

Yesterday`s 95 degree high temperature at IAH was their first 95 of
the year. Last year`s first 95 also occurred on June 15th. On average
(according to Houston area records dating back to 1889), June 13th
is the first date that the area normally reaches the 95 degree mark.
In the past, the earliest this value has been reached was on March
30th (1946) and the latest was on August 8th (1899).  42


College Station (CLL)      95  76  95  76  95 /  10  10   0   0  10
Houston (IAH)              95  78  95  78  95 /  10  10   0   0  10
Galveston (GLS)            88  82  88  81  88 /  10  10   0   0  10




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