Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

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FXUS64 KHGX 130306
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
906 PM CST Fri Jan 12 2018

.UPDATE...
Surface ridging nosing into Southeast Texas continues to result
in decreasing winds this evening with 9 PM temperatures in the
mid 30s to lower 40s. Clear skies will help promote excellent
radiational cooling with a few locations north of a Burleson-
Conroe-Cleveland line experiencing a brief, hard freeze tonight.
The current forecast handles temperature trends well with most
inland locations experiencing freezing or below freezing
temperatures tonight. However, the currently forecast 1-2 hour
drop to hard freeze temperatures (25 F or below) around sunrise
is too brief to issue a Hard Freeze Warning at this time. Should
temperatures begin to drop off faster than anticipated, a late
evening update may be needed to issue a Hard Freeze Warning.

Huffman

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 536 PM CST Fri Jan 12 2018/

AVIATION...
VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF period as high
pressure continues to build into SE TX this evening. Wind speeds
have began to lower and should continue to fall below 10 kts
across all TAF sites, shortly after sunset. The wind direction
should switch from NNW to NE overnight, once again turn out of
the N/NW come sunrise Saturday morning. Wind speeds again will
approach 10 kts across most of the inland TAF sites Saturday
morning, with 10-15 kts possible at coastal terminals such as GLS.

Hathaway

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 336 PM CST Fri Jan 12 2018/

DISCUSSION...
A dry, but cold weekend is in store across the region. Most inland
locations will see freezing overnight temperatures tonight and
Saturday night. A few areas northeast of a Burleson-Cleveland line
may see readings briefly dip to around 24 degrees tonight. We`re
not planning to issue a hard freeze warning at the moment, but
will let the next shift reevaluate the trends.

Winds gradually veer to an onshore direction on Sunday...allowing
for a return of moisture to the region through the day Monday
ahead of an Arctic front that`ll be diving southward through the
Plains.

Models are in fairly good agreement bringing the frontal boundary,
and associated precipitation ahead of and behind it, into
southeast Texas late Monday night and Tuesday. It`s still too
early to accurately predict the thermal profile at the surface and
aloft that far out, but chances are that portions of the area may
see precip transition from liquid to frozen at some point as
temperatures fall through the day. Expect changes to the forecast
as time gets closer, details become more clear (hopefully), and
forecast confidence improves.

Precip should come to an end Tuesday evening. Cold temperatures will
linger through the midweek time period, followed by gradual moderating
trend going into the weekend as onshore winds resume.  47

MARINE...
Gusty NNW winds will continue to gradually diminish and become NE
through Saturday. A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect this
afternoon, with caution flags likely needed through Saturday. Winds
gradually become light onshore again by Sunday night ahead of the
next cold front, which should push off the coast around Monday
night. Gusty NE winds are expected in the wake of this front, and an
SCA will likely be required Tuesday. Winds gradually become onshore
again by Thursday.

The Low Water Advisory has been extended until 4 AM CST as water
levels remain over 2.5 feet below normal at Morgan`s Point.
Conditions should gradually improve as winds slacken and turn more N
to NE tonight.  11

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)      26  47  27  52  36 /   0   0   0   0   0
Houston (IAH)              29  49  28  52  36 /   0   0   0   0   0
Galveston (GLS)            35  49  37  50  46 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...Low Water Advisory until 4 AM CST Saturday for the following
     zones: Galveston Bay...Matagorda Bay.

     SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION through Saturday afternoon
     for the following zones: Coastal waters from Freeport to
     the Matagorda Ship Channel out 20 NM...Coastal waters from
     High Island to Freeport out 20 NM...Waters from Freeport to
     the Matagorda Ship Channel from 20 to 60 NM...Waters from
     High Island to Freeport from 20 to 60 NM.

&&

$$

Discussion...14



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