Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS St. Louis, MO

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FXUS63 KLSX 062355
AFDLSX

Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
555 PM CST Tue Dec 6 2016

.SHORT TERM...  (Through Late Wednesday Afternoon)
Issued at 256 PM CST Tue Dec 6 2016

Cold front moving across the area will push the low cloudiness
out of the area. Models pretty consistent as then continue to push
the measurable precipitation for Wednesday afternoon and early
evening to the south with even lighter amounts. Have put
sprinkles/flurries in for STL area as it is certainly possible.
Colder temps prevail with model temps looking good.

JPK

.LONG TERM...  (Wednesday Night through Next Tuesday)
Issued at 256 PM CST Tue Dec 6 2016

(Wednesday night)

Primary concern Wednesday and Wednesday evening will be chance of
snowfall in southwest and central Missouri. Models are consistent
in bringing shortwave through the area Wednesday into Wednesday
night. This will bring a chance of scattered snow showers to parts
of south central and central Missouri. There is a question how
much if any will reach the ground due to sublimation per cross
sectional analysis. A dusting of snowfall can not be ruled out
during the late afternoon or early evening hours especially in
central and south central Missouri.

(Thursday through Monday)

High pressure will build into the area late Wednesday night
through Saturday afternoon. This will be the coldest air of the
season so far to impact the area. This will bring temperatures
some ten to fifteen degrees below climatological normals for daily
highs and morning lows. The weather will be quiet during this
time. High pressure will slide into the Ohio Valley, which will
bring warmer air into the area from the southeast this weekend.
There is yet another system set to impact the region late this
weekend into early next week. The model ensembles though show a
large spread in timing, precipitation type and temperatures during
this time frame. Thus have chosen to stay with ensemble guidance.

CK/KD

&&

.AVIATION...  (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Wednesday Evening)
Issued at 527 PM CST Tue Dec 6 2016

VFR for at least the first 0-12 hours. Mid-level cloudiness will
gradually increase during the valid TAF period due to an
approaching disturbance. Light snow (or a light rain/snow mix) is
possible at KCOU after 07/18z. A few flurries or sprinkles could
occur at KSTL/KSUS/KCPS after 07/21z, but confidence is too low to
include in the TAFs attm.

Kanofsky

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Saint Louis     29  39  21  27 /   5  10  10   0
Quincy          25  34  16  24 /  10  10  10   0
Columbia        26  35  16  25 /   5  30  20   0
Jefferson City  27  37  18  27 /   5  30  20   0
Salem           28  39  21  28 /   0  10  10   0
Farmington      26  40  20  30 /   0  10  20   0

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
IL...None.
&&

$$

WFO LSX


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