Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS La Crosse, WI

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000
FXUS63 KARX 202306
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
606 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 244 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

COOL CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THURSDAY. COLD UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH CONTINUES TO DOMINATE EASTERN CANADA WITH A PARADE OF COLD
AIRMASSES ARRIVING IN OUR AREA. ONE SHORT WAVE WAS WORKING EAST
ACROSS THE REGION CURRENTLY...AND WAS RESULTING IN SOME RAIN
ACROSS IA/IL AND INTO FAR SOUTHERN WI. THAT SHOULD EXIT QUICKLY
YET THIS AFTERNOON. ANOTHER PASSING SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL SLIDE
THROUGH ON THURSDAY...JUST AS PEAK HEATING WILL BE MAXING OUT.
WITH THE COLD POOL STILL ON PLACE...FEEL THERE WILL BE SOME LIGHT
SHOWERS FOR CENTRAL AND EASTERN WI. INCLUDED SOME SMALL CHANCES.
ELSEWHERE MOISTURE APPEARS TO LIMITED AT THIS POINT. THE BRIEF
PERIOD BETWEEN DISTURBANCES TONIGHT SHOULD ALLOW FOR AT LEAST
PARTIAL CLEARING...HELPING TEMPERATURES TO DIP AGAIN TONIGHT.
THERE MAY BE SOME PATCHY FROST IN THE MORE FAVORED LOCATIONS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 244 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AS
THE UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS EAST JUST ENOUGH TO ENCOMPASS THE UPPER
MIDWEST. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BEGIN BY SATURDAY...BRINGING A
WARMING TREND...BUT ALSO ADDITIONAL MOISTURE...INSTABILITY...AND
SHORT WAVE TROUGH ENERGY EJECTING OUT OF THE MEAN LONG WAVE OVER
THE WESTERN U.S. ECMWF IS THE SLOWEST WITH THE ENERGY REACHING OUR
AREA...WHILE GFS/NAM WITH SUPPORT FROM OTHER MODELS SUGGESTING AT
LEAST A THREAT FOR CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ALREADY BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. IF THE EC SOLUTION VERIFIES...WE MAY GET WELL INTO
SUNDAY BEFORE THE RAIN ARRIVES. THIS WILL BE THE PRIMARY CONCERN
WITH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND NEARLY UPON US. FOR NOW HAD TO TAKE A
BLENDED APPROACH WITH NO CLEAR TREND EMERGING YET. WOULD EXPECT
MODELS TO BEGIN TO CONVERGE ON A SOLUTION IN THE NEXT 12-36 HOURS
NOW THAT THE MAIN TROUGH IS MAKING IT ONTO THE WEST COAST. THERE
IS A SECOND PIECE OF ENERGY IN THE MEAN TROUGH AND THE MODELS ALL
DIFFER IN HOW IT WILL PROGRESS FROM THE SOUTHWEST INTO THE CENTRAL
PART OF THE COUNTRY. THUS THE CONFIDENCE IN THE LONGER TERM
FORECAST BEYOND THIS WEEKEND IS ON THE LOW SIDE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 606 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS STILL COVER THE AREA WITH VFR CEILINGS
AND THIS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING UNTIL THE CLEARING WORKING
ACROSS MINNESOTA SPREADS OVER BOTH TAF SITES. HIGH PRESSURE OVER
NEBRASKA WILL THEN BE THE DOMINANT FEATURE INTO THURSDAY MORNING.
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS
A SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST. THIS WAVE DOES
NOT LOOK TO BE VERY STRONG AND SHOULD ONLY BE ABLE TO PRODUCE SOME
SCATTERED CLOUDS ALONG THE FRONT WITH ANY RAIN STAYING WELL TO THE
EAST OF THE REGION.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MW
LONG TERM...MW
AVIATION...04


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