Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS La Crosse, WI

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000
FXUS63 KARX 161702
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1205 PM CDT WED APR 16 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 411 AM CDT WED APR 16 2014

MAIN CONCERN DEALING WITH STRONG LOW PRESSURE AND ITS IMPACT ON  THE
AREA...INCLUDING ACCUMULATING SNOW ACROSS NORTHERN WI AND GUSTY
WINDS ELSEWHERE.

SURFACE MAP EARLY THIS MORNING HAS AN AREA OF DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE
OVER SOUTHERN SD WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING EASTWARD THROUGH
CENTRAL IA. BROAD SCALE ISENTROPIC LIFT AND STRENGTHENING MID-LEVEL
FRONTOGENESIS ACROSS CENTRAL MN INTO NORTHWEST WI STARTING TO FOCUS
SOME -SN ACROSS THAT AREA. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE AREA...SKIES WERE
CLOUDY WITH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S.

MODELS COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT NOW WITH HANDLING OF
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT. LOOKING LIKE
MODELS ARE TRENDING A FARTHER NORTH PUSH WITH PRECIPITATION ACROSS
NORTHERN WI...IN THE FORM OF SNOW THIS MORNING...AND RAIN MIXING
WITH SNOW BY THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE CONFINED HIGHER POPS A BIT FARTHER
NORTH FOR TODAY...BUT A FEW MODELS INCLUDING THE RAP AND LATEST SREF
SHOWING THE POSSIBILITY OF PRECIPITATION TOTALLY PUSHING NORTH OUT
OF OUR AREA THIS AFTERNOON. 16.00Z DETERMINISTIC NAM/GFS/EC ALL
SHOWING PRECIPITATION HANGING MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I-94
CORRIDOR WITH ACCUMULATING SNOW THROUGH THIS MORNING MAINLY NORTH OF
HIGHWAY 29 IN NORTHERN CLARK COUNTY. CURRENT THINKING WITH RADAR
TREND AND THE 00Z MODELS IN MIND IS FOR SNOW THIS MORNING ACROSS
CLARK/TAYLOR WITH 1-3 INCHES THROUGH LATE MORNING MAINLY NORTH OF
HIGHWAY 29. WITH THIS IN MIND...WILL HANG ONTO THE WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY FOR NOW ACROSS CLARK AND TAYLOR...BUT STARTING TO HAVE MY
DOUBTS WHETHER CARRYING IT PAST 18Z GIVEN WHAT THE RAP/SREF MODELS
ARE SAYING. THIS IS OBVIOUSLY A QUICKLY CHANGING SITUATION AND WILL
HAVE TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY BY THE DAY SHIFT TODAY.

OTHER CONCERN FOR TODAY WILL BE INCREASING/GUSTY SOUTH WINDS MAINLY
ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE I-90 CORRIDOR TODAY AHEAD OF THE DEEP LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING EAST ALONG THE IA/MN BORDER THIS AFTERNOON.
WILL SEE SUSTAINED WINDS OF 20-30 MPH WITH SOME GUST AROUND 40 MPH.
RIGHT NOW...WINDS LOOK BORDERLINE FOR A WIND ADVISORY...BUT WILL LET
THE DAYSHIFT MONITOR THIS AS WELL.

OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA WILL VARY FROM AROUND 40
ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL WI...TO THE 50S ALONG/SOUTH OF I-90.

FOR TONIGHT...THE LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL LIFT NORTHEAST INTO
NORTHERN WI WITH DEFORMATION RAIN/SNOW...CHANGING TO ALL SNOW
LOOKING LIKELY ACROSS EASTERN MN INTO NORTHERN WI. LOOKS LIKE THE
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF OF THE DEFORMATION SNOW CLIPS CLARK AND TAYLOR
WITH ACCUMULATING SNOW AGAIN TONIGHT...WITH AMOUNTS OF 1-2 INCHES.
MEANWHILE...THERE ARE A FEW WRF MODELS SHOWING A BAND OF SHOWERS
FORMING ALONG THE COLD FRONT OF THE LOW SWINGING ACROSS SOUTHERN
PARTS OF THE AREA DURING THIS EVENING. PUSHED POPS INTO LIKELY
CATEGORY BASED ON THIS SIGNAL. APPEARS PRECIPITATION MIXES AND
CHANGES TO ALL SNOW THROUGH THE NIGHT ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA
WITH THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION LIFTING NORTHEAST OF I-94 BY
MORNING. THEREFORE...LITTLE IF ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION EXPECTED
SOUTHWEST OF I-94 THROUGH THE NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 411 AM CDT WED APR 16 2014

THERE MAY BE SOME LINGERING LIGHT SNOW WITH MINIMAL ACCUMULATION
THURSDAY MORNING NORTHEAST OF I-94. REST OF THE DAY WILL BE
MOSTLY CLOUDY...AND COOL WITH HIGHS ONLY MAKING IT INTO THE 40 TO
50 DEGREE RANGE. A COLD NIGHT THEN SETS UP THURSDAY NIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE NOSES INTO THE AREA WITH LOWS DROPPING OFF INTO THE 20S.

A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH/PV-ADVECTION ROTATES THROUGH SOUTHERN
MN/IA ON FRIDAY. THIS GIVES PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST IA/SOUTHEAST MN A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF EARLY MORNING LIGHT SNOW AND DAYTIME RAIN.
OTHERWISE...PLAN ON HIGHS IN THE AGAIN IN THE 40S TO A FEW LOWER 50S
ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST IA/SOUTHWEST WI.

A CHANCE OF RAIN ENTERS THE PICTURE FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT AS A MID-LEVEL TROUGH AND WEAK SURFACE COLD FRONT PUSH
SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE AREA. LOOK FOR HIGHS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY IN
THE 50S.

THERE MAY BE A FEW LINGERING SHOWER ACROSS CENTRAL WI ON MONDAY BUT
THE REST OF THE AREA WILL SEE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AS MID/UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE AREA. THIS WARMS HIGHS INTO THE UPPER 50S
TO THE LOWER 60S. LOOK FOR THIS RIDGE TO PERSIST INTO TUESDAY FOR
MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS AND HIGHS TOPPING OFF AGAIN IN THE UPPER
50S TO LOWER 60S...OR RIGHT AROUND NORMAL LEVELS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1205 PM CDT WED APR 16 2014

MIXING WILL CONTINUE HIGHER WIND GUSTS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON...STAYING SOUTHEASTERLY BEFORE A COLD FRONT SWEEPS IN
OVERNIGHT. WINDS BECOME WESTERLY POST THE FRONT...WITH THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT STAYING FAIRLY TIGHT THROUGH THU MORNING.

CIGS WILL STAY VFR AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WITH BUFKIT SOUNDINGS AND RH
FIELDS POINTING TO A DROP INTO MVFR - POTENTIALLY IFR - AFTER THE
FRONT MOVES THROUGH. MOST OF THE PCPN ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM
WILL FALL TO THE NORTH...WITH SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. THAT
SAID...MESO MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST SOME LIGHT PCPN ALONG AND
BEHIND THE FRONT...WHICH MATCHES WITH THE LATEST RADAR TRENDS. TEMP
PROFILES SUPPORT MOSTLY RAIN AT THIS TIME. SOUNDINGS ARE SUGGESTING
A LOSS OF ICE AS THE FRONT WORKS ACROSS WESTERN WI OVERNIGHT...WHICH
WOULD RESULT IN DRIZZLE/VERY LIGHT RAIN. FREEZING PCPN WOULD BE A
CONCERN IF GROUND TEMPS ARE COLD ENOUGH. CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH
THAT THIS WILL OCCUR...SO WILL LEAVE OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR NOW.

WITH THE LOW MOVING INTO EASTERN WI BY 18Z THU...EXPECT SOME
CLEARING FROM WEST-EAST OF THE CLOUD COVER. GUIDANCE WOULD KEEP
BKN/OVC SKIES...BUT SOUNDINGS POINT TO MIXING OUT OF THE LOW CIGS.
GOING TO TREND THE FORECAST THIS WAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 411 AM CDT WED APR 16 2014

RIVERS REMAIN AT ELEVATED LEVELS FROM HEAVIER RAINFALL THIS PAST
WEEKEND. FLOOD WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHERN REACHES OF
THE KICKAPOO RIVER AT GAYS MILLS AND STEUBEN. A FLOOD WARNING IS ALSO
IN EFFECT FOR THE MISSISSIPPI AT WABASHA AND MCGREGOR. SEE
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/AHPS2/INDEX.PHP?WFO=ARX FOR LATEST RIVER LEVELS AND
FORECASTS.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR WIZ017-029.

MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DAS
LONG TERM....DAS
AVIATION.....RIECK
HYDROLOGY....DAS



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