Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS La Crosse, WI

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FXUS63 KARX 162326
AFDARX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
526 PM CST Thu Feb 16 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 250 PM CST Thu Feb 16 2017

A plume of high cirrus has been streaming southeastward over the
area today within the broad 1000-700 mb warm advection regime on
the eastern periphery of an upper ridge building across the
plains. As the ridge axis progresses into the area on Friday,
model soundings indicate less cloud cover, while 925 mb temps rise
to 11-14C by late in the day. This supports high temps at least
into the 50s over most of the area. Some 60s are possible, with
max temps ultimately depending on how much mixing occurs in the
boundary layer. Upstream obs south of a warm frontal boundary this
afternoon across southern Iowa, more indicative of our air mass
for tomorrow, are in the 50s to low 60s as of 20Z.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
Issued at 250 PM CST Thu Feb 16 2017

A shortwave passing across the Canadian border region on Friday night
will send a weak cold front through the region with high pressure
passing over the region for Saturday. This may knock temps back a
few degrees compared with Friday, but temps will remain well above
average.

The upper ridge will build into the area again Sunday into Monday
ahead of an upper trough. Temps will inch back upward Sunday with
potentially near record highs in the 50s and perhaps low 60s over
most areas. While only some high cloud cover is expected at times
through the weekend, timing of lower clouds/precip may impact Mon
temps. There are still some differences among models with the
evolution of the northern stream upper wave that will eject
northeastward Mon/Mon night. Strong low-level moisture transport
is expected ahead of the wave with anomalously high precipitable
water values in place just ahead of the surface boundary, but
assuming a relatively progressive system as the GFS indicates,
rainfall amounts would not be excessive. The highest rain chances
appear to be Monday afternoon into Monday night as the low-level
boundary passes through. A bit of thunder could not be ruled out,
but instability looks meager.

Upper level flow will return to zonal with weak ridging Tuesday into
Thursday. A few weak disturbances passing through/near the region
may produce some spotty light precipitation during this time period.
Temperatures will continue to be well above normal, with highs in
the 50s and lows mainly above freezing. Attention will then be
turning to a deepening upper level low ejecting eastward off the
Rockies on Thursday. Recent runs of the GFS have taken a slower and
more southerly track with this feature, while the ECMWF continues to
show a faster, more northerly track.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening)
Issued at 526 PM CST Thu Feb 16 2017

VFR conditions continue through the TAF period once again with
some passing mid and high clouds at times giving way to
sunny/clear conditions for much of Friday. Winds will subside
overnight and remain mainly from a southeasterly direction, likely
shifting more southerly toward midday Friday as a warm front
passes. Based on the setup, there is some chance that winds may
end up being more gusty Friday afternoon as temperatures warm
considerably, so something to watch with later forecasts.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 321 AM CST Thu Feb 16 2017

Temperatures will be some 20 to 30 degrees above normal Friday
through Monday.

Here are some record highs and record high lows for La Crosse and
Rochester for Friday February the through Monday February the the:

                          Record Highs
                          ------------

             La Crosse                     Rochester
            -----------                   -----------

Fri (17th)    64/1981        Fri (17th)     63/1981
Sat (18th)    64/1981        Sat (18th)     60/1981
Sun (19th)    59/1930        Sun (19th)     59/1930
Mon (20th)    61/1930        Mon (20th)     60/1930


                         Record High Lows
                         ----------------

Fri (17th)    41/1981        Fri (17th)     35/1981
Sat (18th)    38/1981        Sat (18th)     37/1954
Sun (19th)    38/2002        Sun (19th)     36/2002
Mon (20th)    41/1930        Mon (20th)     34/1954

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
IA...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM...JM
AVIATION...Lawrence
CLIMATE...DAS


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