Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS La Crosse, WI

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FXUS63 KARX 151726

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
1126 AM CST Thu Feb 15 2018

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Tonight)
Issued at 305 AM CST Thu Feb 15 2018

Surface map early this morning has a cold front extending  from Lake
Superior through northern MN, and then along the ND/SD border.
Meanwhile, a weak area of low pressure was along the NE/KS border
and was spreading high clouds into areas along and south of I-90.
Otherwise, southwest surface flow was keeping temperatures quite
mild as of 2 am with readings in the 30s.

For today, we`ll see the cold front slip southeast through the
region with that weak area of low pressure rippling northeast
through IL. Push of moisture ahead of the low and the advancing cold
front will increase cloud cover across the area but any
precipitation should remain south. Despite cold frontal passage, warm
start today should yield highs in the middle 30s to the lower

Models still show a weak mid-level trough passing through the
region this evening for a small-end chance of light snow or
scattered snow showers. Maintained a 20-40 pop to cover this.
Stronger cold air advection and clearing skies behind this wave
will drop lows into the single digits above zero.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Thursday)
Issued at 305 AM CST Thu Feb 15 2018

Friday will be sunny but colder as high pressure builds southeast
from the Northern Plains. Plan on highs in the teens to lower 20s.

Next chance of precipitation in the form of snow showers will be
late Friday night into Saturday as a cold front slips southeast
through the area. Look for lows Friday night in the single digits
and teens with highs Saturday in the upper 20s to the middle 30s.

Sunday looks quiet/dry as high pressure drifts across the region.
with highs topping off in the upper 20s to the middle 30s.

A storm system ejects northeast out of the Rockies into the region
Monday through Tuesday. Precipitation types/impact on the area a bit
uncertain at this time due to differing temperature profiles between
the models. Right now, will have to call it a wintry mix and dial in
more detail over the next couple of days.

Wednesday through Thursday looks dry with slightly below normal


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
Issued at 1126 AM CST Thu Feb 15 2018

Variety of conditions across the area this morning will lead to
changable flight rules as we head into tonight. Bulk of area is
experiencing VFR conditions now that fog is clearing in far south,
but still watching area of cold advection stratus come in from the
northwest with mainly MVFR ceilings. Have timed this in later this
afternoon with idea that it will persist until later tonight when
weak short wave passes through and helps clear skies. How quickly
that occurs a bit in question but after period of MVFR conditions
tonight, expect return to VFR Friday.




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