Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS La Crosse, WI

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FXUS63 KARX 091050
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
550 AM CDT WED APR 9 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 350 AM CDT WED APR 9 2014

AT 3 AM...A SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WAS LOCATED ACROSS THE
UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. MEANWHILE ALOFT...A 925 AND 850 MB
WARM FRONT WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING. THESE
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM BY 6C THIS MORNING...AND ANOTHER 4C THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS FRONT WILL PRODUCE A SCATTERED TO BROKEN ABOVE 10K
FEET THIS MORNING...AND SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY THIS AFTERNOON.
THE GFS BUFKIT SOUNDING LOOKS TO BE TOO COOL WITH ITS SURFACE
TEMPERATURE AND THIS AFFECTS HOW DEEP IT WILL MIX THIS AFTERNOON.
IT KEEPS THE 850 TO 800 MB CAP IN PLACE. MEANWHILE THE NAM AND
RAP HAS WARMER SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND THUS IT IS ABLE TO MIX
DOWN THE DRIER AIR FROM THE ELEVATED MIX LAYER ABOVE THE
CAP...THUS IT LOWERS DEW POINTS INTO THE LOWER AND MID 30S.
CONSIDERING THAT THE MOS AND THE SUPER BLEND HAS BEEN RUNNING A
BIT COOL OVER THE LAST 2 DAYS...OPTED TO GO WITH THE WARMER NAM
AND RAP FOR TODAY. WITH THIS SAID...DO THINK THAT THEY MAY BE
MIXED TOO MUCH...SO WENT WITH A COMPROMISE AND ONLY MIXED UP INTO
THE 800 TO 775 MB RANGE. THIS RESULTED IN HIGH TEMPERATURES OF 70
TO 75 DEGREES WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AND 63 TO 70 ACROSS
WESTERN WISCONSIN. THE COMBINATION OF THESE TEMPERATURES...LOW
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES /AROUND 25 PERCENT/...STRONG SOUTHWEST
WINDS...AND DRY FINE FUELS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE 90
CORRIDOR...THERE WILL BE A DANGER FOR WILD FIRES ESPECIALLY WEST
OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER THIS AFTERNOON. THOSE WHO PLAN ON DOING
ANY OUTDOOR BURNING SHOULD MOVE THEIR PLANS TO ANOTHER DAY. IN
ADDITION...ALL CIGARETTE BUTTS SHOULD BE DISCARDED INTO PROPER
PROPER CONTAINERS.

FOR TONIGHT...A CANADIAN COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH ACROSS
SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA...AND ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90. DUE TO
THE DRY AIR AHEAD OF THIS FRONT...THE SHOWERS WILL BE CONFINED
MAINLY ALONG AND IN THE WAKE OF IT. RAINFALL TOTALS WILL BE LESS
THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 AM CDT WED APR 9 2014

ON FRIDAY...ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE REGION. THERE IS MODERATE 290 TO 300K ISENTROPIC LIFT
AHEAD OF THIS WAVE AND IT LOWERS CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS TO
LESS THAN 10 MB. DUE TO THIS...WENT MORE WITH THE GFS...GEM...AND
ECMWF THAN THE DRY NAM. WITH THIS SAID...CONCERNED THAT THE
PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES MAY NOT BE HIGH ENOUGH WITH THIS
SYSTEM. ALSO WITH ML CAPES UP TO 250 J/KG INCLUDED ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS TO GO ALONG WITH THE SCATTERED SHOWERS.

FROM SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THE 09.00Z MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW
THAT A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION. THE
GFS CONTINUES TO THE BE THE FASTEST WITH MOVING THIS FRONT THROUGH
THE REGION. MEANWHILE THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO BE MUCH SLOWER THAN
THE GFS. WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES CLIMBING INTO THE 1 TO
1.25 INCH RANGE...THERE COULD BE SOME BRIEF PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN.
RAINFALL TOTALS LOOK TO BE IN THE 0.75 TO 1.25 INCH RANGE. THE
HIGHEST TOTAL LOOK TO BE ACROSS NORTHEAST IOWA AND SOUTHWEST
WISCONSIN. THIS IS DUE TO THE FRONT SLOWING DOWN AS A WAVE MOVES
ALONG THIS FRONT.

FROM SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...THE GFS CONTINUES TO KEEP THE AREA
DRY. MEANWHILE THE ECMWF STILL SHOWS THAT THE PRECIPITATION WILL
LINGER ACROSS NORTHEAST IOWA AND SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR THE RAIN TO TRANSITION OVER TO SNOW
OVERNIGHT. WITH THIS SAID...THE ECMWF HAS TRENDED A BIT MORE
TOWARD THE GFS WITH ITS LATEST RUN. AS A RESULT...ITS SNOW TOTALS
ARE MUCH LESS THAN WHAT IT SHOWED DURING ITS PREVIOUS 3 RUNS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 550 AM CDT WED APR 9 2014

WINDY DAY AS A TIGHT SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT AND GOOD MIXING IN THE
NEAR SFC LAYER BRINGS STRONGER WINDS TO THE SFC. EXPECT 15-25 KTS
WITH GUSTS AROUND 30 FROM LATE MORNING INTO THE EARLY EVENING.

A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP IN FROM THE NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT...ROUGHLY IN
A 09-10Z TIME FRAME AT KRST/KLSE. NAM BUFKIT SOUNDINGS INDICATING
THERE COULD BE A LLWS CONCERN FOR A FEW HOURS AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...ABOUT 22050KTS AT 2 KFT. HOWEVER...THE GFS IS MUCH LESS.
WILL LEAVE OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR THE MOMENT...BUT TRENDS WILL HAVE
TO BE MONITORED.

MID LEVEL CLOUDS MOVE IN TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE FRONT...LOWERING A BIT
POST THE BOUNDARY...BUT LOOK TO STAY VFR AT THIS TIME. BETTER
FORCING IS POST FRONT...AND THERE SHOULD BE -SHRA SCATTERED ABOUT.
WILL ADD TO FORECAST...BUT LEAVE OUT ANY POSSIBLE VSBY REDUCTION FOR
NOW.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...THIS AFTERNOON
ISSUED AT 350 AM CDT WED APR 9 2014

WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 70 TO 75 DEGREE RANGE...STRONG
SOUTHWEST WINDS /SUSTAINED 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH/...
LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES /AROUND 25 PERCENT/...AND DRY FINE
FUELS...THERE WILL BE A HIGH RISK FOR WILD FIRES TODAY ESPECIALLY
ACROSS SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND NORTHEAST IOWA. DUE TO THIS...A RED
FLAG WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM NOON THROUGH 7 PM.

OUTDOOR BURNING IS ALSO DISCOURAGED ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE
90 DUE TO THE HIGH FIRE DANGER.

THOSE WHO PLAN ON DOING ANY OUTDOOR BURNING SHOULD MOVE THEIR
PLANS TO ANOTHER DAY. IN ADDITION...ALL CIGARETTE BUTTS SHOULD BE
DISCARDED INTO PROPER CONTAINERS.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
     MNZ079-086>088-094>096.

IA...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
     IAZ008>011-018-019-029-030.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BOYNE
LONG TERM....BOYNE
AVIATION.....RIECK
FIRE WEATHER...BOYNE



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