Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS La Crosse, WI

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FXUS63 KARX 252305
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
605 PM CDT SAT JUL 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 257 PM CDT SAT JUL 25 2015

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON WITH MOSTLY SUNNY
...AND DRIER CONDITIONS COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. TEMPERATURES ACROSS
THE AREA RANGED FROM AROUND 80 ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL WI...TO NEAR 90
IN THE WISCONSIN RIVER VALLEY REGION OF SOUTHWEST WI.

RADAR MOSAIC WAS SHOWING A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE DAKOTAS INTO MN
HEADING EAST ASSOCIATED WITH A MID-LEVEL TROUGH...BUT APPEARS THESE
SHOULD DIMINISH AS THEY CLOSE IN ON THE REGION DUE TO THE DRIER AIR
IN PLACE. OTHERWISE...ANOTHER MID-LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE MOVING ACROSS
IA/NORTHERN MO TONIGHT WITH BULK OF CONVECTION STAYING SOUTHWEST OF
OUR AREA. THIS WAVE CONTINUES TO MOVE THROUGH EASTERN IA INTO IL
SUNDAY. NORTHERN FRINGES OF ASSOCIATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS COULD
GET INTO PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST MN INTO FAR SOUTHWEST WI. KEPT A 20-
30 POP ACROSS THAT AREA TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. AFTER OVERNIGHT LOWS IN
THE 60S...PLAN ON HIGHS SUNDAY IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 80S ALONG
WITH INCREASING DEW POINTS/HUMIDITY.

EXPECTING DRY/QUIET CONDITIONS SUNDAY NIGHT AS A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA. PLAN ON LOWS IN THE 60S.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 257 PM CDT SAT JUL 25 2015

MAIN STORY WILL BE BUILDING HEAT/HUMIDITY THROUGH TUESDAY ALONG WITH
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER THE REGION ON MONDAY UP
STREAM WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL BE DRIVING SOME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A WARM FRONT MOVING NORTHWARD THROUGH IA...BUT
RIGHT NOW IT APPEARS DRY FOR OUR AREA. PLAN ON HIGHS IN THE 85-90
DEGREE RANGE WITH HEAT INDICES INCREASING INTO THE 90S.

FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING...WILL BE WATCHING A WARM
FRONT LIFT NORTHEAST INTO THE AREA. MODELS SHOW SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND STORMS ALONG THE FRONT AS IT LIFTS THROUGH. NAM BUFKIT SHOWS
THIS CONVECTION WILL BE ELEVATED IN NATURE WITH NO SEVERE WEATHER
EXPECTED.

MODELS SHOWING THE WARM FRONT LIFTING THROUGH THE AREA BY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON WITH CAPPING TAKING PLACE DURING THE AFTERNOON. AS A
RESULT...DIMINISHED TO SMALLER END POPS IN THE AFTERNOON.
OTHERWISE...HIGHS TOPPING OFF IN THE UPPER 80S TO THE MIDDLE 90S
ALONG WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 70-75 DEGREE RANGE WILL COMBINE TO
PRODUCE HEAT INDICES IN THE 95 TO 105 RANGE. AS SUCH...WILL LIKELY
NEED A HEAT ADVISORY FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT FOR THE LIKELIHOOD OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS. A FEW OF THE STORM COULD BECOME SEVERE AS THE
FRONT CLASHES WITH THE VERY HUMID AIRMASS IN PLACE.

A BIT MORE COMFORTABLE CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE WEEK INTO SATURDAY AS UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE OUT OF THE
NORTHWEST. MOST OF THIS PERIOD LOOKS DRY...BUT THERE WILL BE A COLD
FRONT SLIPPING THROUGH THE REGION FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS. OTHERWISE...PLAN ON HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO MIDDLE 80S
WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 605 PM CDT SAT JUL 25 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL WHILE DEALING WITH CLOUD DEBRIS
FROM MORE ACTIVE ZONE OF CONVECTION WEST AND SOUTHWEST OF AREA NEXT
24 HOURS.

VERY BROAD UPPER RIDGE ACROSS CONUS MEANS PSEUDO ZONAL FLOW FOR
CORNBELT AND WESTERN GREAT LAKES WITH WEAK DISTURBANCES PASSING
THROUGH. HIGHER INSTABILITY REMAINS LOCKED UP WEST AND SOUTHWEST OF
AREA SO EXPECT BULK OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TO RIDE ALONG MIXED LAYER
CAPE AXIS LEAVING JUST MID/UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS WITH GRADUAL SOUTHEAST
LOW LEVEL FLOW DEVELOPING.

A BIT MORE CLOUD COVER TONIGHT AND DEW POINTS THAT MIXED OUT SHOULD
KEEP FOG RISK AT A MINIMUM...EVEN WITH LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DAS
LONG TERM...DAS
AVIATION...SHEA



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