Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS La Crosse, WI

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000
FXUS63 KARX 252313
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
510 PM CST THU DEC 25 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 254 PM CST THU DEC 25 2014

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS ARE ON LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE POTENTIAL
TONIGHT. FOCUS THEN TURNS TO SNOW ACCUMULATIONS FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.

LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE OR SNOW IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT OVER PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA INTO NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN. A MID LEVEL
TROUGH WILL PUSH EAST OUT OF THE DAKOTAS TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY
PRODUCING A BAND OF LIGHT SNOW AND POSSIBLY LIGHT FREEZING
DRIZZLE...MAINLY NORTHWEST OF THE FORECAST AREA. CONFIDENCE IS LOW
ON THE FREEZING DRIZZLE OCCURRING TONIGHT SO DECIDED TO KEEP IT
AS PROBABILITY INSTEAD OF COVERAGE. IF THE DRIZZLE DEVELOPS...SOME
VERY LIGHT ICING IS POSSIBLE ON UNTREATED ROADS AND ELEVATED
SURFACES. ALSO...MESOSCALE MODELS ARE SUGGESTING THE POTENTIAL FOR
SOME FOG TONIGHT RIGHT ALONG THE SURFACE TROUGH LATE TONIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING. WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS DURING THE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. OTHERWISE PLAN ON LOWS FALLING INTO
THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S TONIGHT.

ANOTHER TROUGH MOVES EAST OUT OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS FRIDAY AS A
SEPARATE TROUGH LIFTS NORTHEAST OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST CONUS. SNOW AND
RAIN LOOKS TO DEVELOP LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON...INCREASING IN
COVERAGE GOING INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. OTHERWISE...PLAN ON MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES WITH AREAS OF DRIZZLE AND POSSIBLY SOME FOG ON FRIDAY
WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE LOWER 30S OVER SOUTHEAST
MINNESOTA INTO NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN TO AROUND 40 ACROSS FAR
SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 254 PM CST THU DEC 25 2014

BY FRIDAY EVENING...A BAND OF SNOW SHOULD BE IN PLACE FROM PORTIONS
OF NORTHEAST IOWA...SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA...INTO NORTH CENTRAL
WISCONSIN. A MIX OF RAIN OR SNOW IS EXPECTED ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST
IOWA INTO SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN. THERE IS UNCERTAINTY ON WHETHER OR
NOT THE SOUTHERN STREAM AND NORTHERN STREAM TROUGHS WILL INTERACT
ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. THE NAM AND GFS OFFER
MORE PROGRESSIVE SOLUTIONS WHICH WOULD YIELD LIGHTER SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS. THE GEM AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS ARE MUCH STRONGER...AND
DEEPEN THE TROUGH OVER THE FORECAST AREA. IF THESE STRONGER
SOLUTIONS VERIFY...WE WOULD SEE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS IN THE 2 TO 4
INCH RANGE WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. EITHER WAY...TRAVEL WILL
BE IMPACTED BY THIS SYSTEM WITH SLIPPERY ROADS EXPECTED FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH ON SEEING
ACCUMULATIONS IN THE 1 TO 2 INCH RANGE. LOW CONFIDENCE ON SEEING
AMOUNTS IN THE 2 TO 4 INCH PLUS RANGE AT THIS TIME.

THE STORM SYSTEM WILL EXIT THE REGION LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY.
A MUCH COLDER AIRMASS THEN SWEEPS INTO THE REGION MONDAY AFTERNOON
INTO MONDAY NIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES PLUMMETING INTO THE SINGLE
DIGITS BELOW ZERO ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION. SOME LIGHT SNOW IS
POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON MAINLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 90 AS A WEAK
SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH. OTHERWISE...THE MAIN FOCUS IS ON THE COLD
TEMPERATURES MOVING IN. HIGHS WILL ONLY BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS
TO LOWER TEENS TUESDAY..WITH LOWS FALLING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS
BELOW ZERO TUESDAY NIGHT. WIND CHILLS MAY ALSO BE A CONCERN MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT OVER THE OPEN AREAS OF NORTHEAST IOWA...
SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN WHERE WIND CHILL
VALUES COULD FALL TO AROUND -20.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 510 PM CST THU DEC 25 2014

FINALLY A BREAK FROM THE LOW CIGS FOR A FEW HOURS TODAY...BUT LOW
STRATUS WILL RETURN LATER TONIGHT. A SFC TROUGH WILL TRACK SLOWLY
EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT/FRIDAY...WITH AN UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH SPINNING ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY
FRIDAY NIGHT. IFR-MVFR CIGS ARE LOCATED POST THE SFC TROUGH...AND
ANTICIPATE THESE WILL SPREAD ACROSS KRST TOWARD 08Z...CLOSER TO 12Z
FOR KLSE. DECENT UPGLIDE ON THE LOW LEVEL ISENTROPIC SFCS COUPLED
WITH SOME MOISTURE TRANSPORT SHOULD PRODUCED PATCHY AREAS OF
-DZ/FZDZ IN THE LOW CLOUD LAYER. SEE A BIT BETTER CHANCES AT
KRST...AND WILL INCLUDE A MENTION FOR THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF
FRIDAY. EXPECT SOME REDUCTIONS OF VSBY WITH LOW CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY
FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN LOCATION OF KRST. MOSTLY MVFR...BUT SOME 1-
2SM WITH -DZ POSSIBLE.

SNOW WILL SPREAD INTO THE REGION WITH THE SHORTWAVE FRIDAY
NIGHT...CONTINUING THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. ANTICIPATED
ACCUMULATIONS FROM 1 TO 3 INCHES AT THIS TIME. VSBY RESTRICTIONS SUB
1-2SM WITH THE HEAVIER SNOWS. LIFR/IFR CIGS ALSO LIKELY FOR A PERIOD
BETWEEN 06-18Z SAT.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...WETENKAMP
LONG TERM....WETENKAMP
AVIATION.....RIECK



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