Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Des Moines, IA

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000
FXUS63 KDMX 160854
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
354 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 353 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE DRAPED ACROSS IOWA EARLY THIS MORNING HAS
RESULTED IN CLEAR SKIES AND NEARLY CALM WINDS...ALLOWING FOR PATCHY
FOG FORMATION ACROSS THE AREA. THUS FAR DENSE FOG HAS BEEN VERY
ISOLATED AND THIS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE...WITH ALL FOG BURNING OFF
QUICKLY AFTER SUNRISE. THEREAFTER...IT WILL BE SUNNY WITH LIGHT
WINDS AS THE HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY MOVES OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST
TODAY.

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 353 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

CURRENT HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY MOVE EAST AND BE OVER
THE OHIO VALLEY ON WEDNESDAY. THIS HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE ABSORBED
BY A STRONGER CANADIAN SYSTEM AS IT MOVES SOUTH INTO THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES WED NIGHT AND THURSDAY. RETURN FLOW WILL LIFT THROUGH
KANSAS AND WRN MISSOURI AS THE INITIAL SYSTEM SHIFT EAST TONIGHT
ALONG WITH A SURGE OF THETA-E ADVECTION THAT WILL REACH WRN IA.
LOW POPS REMAIN OVER FAR SOUTHWEST IOWA WHERE AN ISOLATED STORM OR
TWO MAY REACH OTHERWISE DRY CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN. THE SECOND
HIGH WILL FURTHER REINFORCE THE MID LEVEL DRY AIR OVER IOWA AND
SHOULD PREVENT PRECIPITATION CHANCES.

THE UPPER NORTHWEST FLOW WILL TRANSITION TO SLIGHT RIDGING BY THE
END OF THE WEEK WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES ARRIVING ACROSS THE
STATE. THIS WILL RESULT RETURN FLOW TO CENTRAL IOWA AS THE HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM DEPARTS AND LOW PRESSURE TRIES TO ORGANIZE TO THE
WEST. RELATIVELY GOOD CONSENSUS ON TIMING OF FRONTAL BOUNDARY
TIMING ON SATURDAY. THE BOUNDARY SHOULD BE ACTIVE BUT WILL BE
MOVING THROUGH PRIOR TO PEAK HEATING. THE SYSTEM WILL HAVE SOME
GULF MOISTURE TO WORK AND THE MID LEVEL FLOW DOES BRING IN PACIFIC
MOISTURE...HOWEVER THE TROPICAL CONNECTION WILL JUST BRUSH THE
AREA AND LIKELY WILL HAVE MORE IMPACT AS IT PASSES BY CENTRAL IA.
THE OVERALL SYSTEM LOOKS PROGRESSIVE ENOUGH TO NULLIFY POTENTIAL
FOR WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN. NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PREVAIL FOR SUNDAY
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH RIDGING DEVELOPING OVER THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST WHILE A LARGE TROUGH IS CARVED OUT OVER THE
EAST.

&&

.AVIATION...16/06Z
ISSUED AT 1200 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

HIGH PRESSURE NWRN KS INTO LAKE SUPERIOR WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST AND
EAST SOUTHEAST OF IOWA BY TUE EVENING. AREAS OF MVFR FOG AROUND
SUNRISE...WITH PATCHY IFR CONDITIONS. THIS WILL IMPROVE RAPIDLY
AFTER SUNRISE WITH VFR THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL BRING A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS MAINLY TO THE WEST OF THE TAF SITES WED-FRI WITH A MORE
WIDESPREAD RAIN EVENT FOR THE WEEKEND.


&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LEE
LONG TERM...DONAVON
AVIATION...MS SEP 14


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