Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Des Moines, IA

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000
FXUS63 KDMX 300906
AFDDMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Des Moines IA
406 AM CDT MON MAY 30 2016

.SHORT TERM.../Today/
Issued at 406 AM CDT Mon May 30 2016

The main forecast concern was focused on thunderstorm chances
throughout the day. A few isolated storms have developed along a
weak area of theta-E advection in southeast Iowa and look to
persist through around 12-13z. This ribbon of theta-E extends
northwest close to a weak shortwave moving across South Dakota.
There are already a few storms located in northwest Iowa and
expect them to continue to press east as the theta-E advects north
and east. In addition, there is some weak isentropic lift between
300-315K surfaces and this should be enough to spawn additional
thunderstorms over western to northern Iowa through the morning
hours and into the afternoon as the shortwave transitions east.
However, the better forcing is located over the north today, and
thus have the highest pops going in this location. Severe threat
remains minimal due to the lack of significant deep layer shear to
hold any thunderstorms together. Mainly looking at pulse storms to
produce some brief hail at times.

.LONG TERM.../Tonight through Sunday/
Issued at 406 AM CDT Mon May 30 2016

Strong low level flow will initially be focused on convection west
of Iowa late this afternoon into this evening. Most convection
this evening in the forecast area will be generally isolated and
mainly in western Iowa. The convection across the plains will move
eastward into Iowa overnight as the low level jet veers with time.
Have gradually increased pops during the night from west to east
as the line of storms pushes into the state. While there may be a
severe storm late tonight, the overall system will have matured
by the time it reaches the forecast and will likely be weakening.
The better threat for seeing convection is expected on Tuesday as
the boundary pushes across the forecast areas and lift is enhanced
by the approaching shortwave. Once again, there is some threat for
severe convection, however shear will remain marginal with modest
instability. Some heavy rainfall will be possible given decent
PWATs but the rather progressive nature of the system should
preclude any bigger water issues.

As the front pushes east on Tuesday night, the threat for storms
will diminish and with subsidence overspreading the state, there
will be little threat of precipitation into Wednesday. The quiet
weather is expected to persist from Wednesday into Thursday as
cool Canadian high pressure passes through the region. By Friday,
the next threat of precipitation arrives with increasing warm
advection and theta-e advection ahead of an approaching boundary.

&&

.AVIATION.../For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night/
Issued at 1151 PM CDT Sun May 29 2016

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are the main aviation concern
during the forecast period. Initial threat will arrive early this
morning followed by additional chances into the afternoon and
evening. Cigs will generally remain VFR. Winds will be light and
be mostly less than 10 kts.

&&

.DMX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Podrazik
LONG TERM...Cogil
AVIATION...Donavon



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