Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Des Moines, IA

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000
FXUS63 KDMX 280830
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
330 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

IT WILL BE ANOTHER RELATIVELY COOL DAY ACROSS THE AREA WITH LIGHT TO
MODERATE NORTH NORTHWEST BREEZES. SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS DEPICT A LARGE AREA OF STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ADVANCING
FROM MINNESOTA AND EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA DOWN INTO NORTHERN
IOWA...WITH REGIONAL RADAR SHOWING A FEW SPRINKLES ACROSS SOUTHERN
MINNESOTA. EXPECT THAT THESE CLOUDS AND ISOLATES SPRINKLES WILL
CONTINUE TO INCREASE ACROSS OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES EARLY THIS
MORNING...THEN EXPAND INTO CENTRAL IOWA BY MIDDAY.
HOWEVER...FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE ONLY A VERY SHALLOW CLOUD
LAYER AND WITH AMPLE MIXING THERE SHOULD BE INCREASING BREAKS IN THE
CLOUDS AND A DOWNWARD TREND IN SPRINKLE/LIGHT SHOWER COVERAGE DURING
THE AFTERNOON WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES RETURNING BY LATER THIS
EVENING. HAVE MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS...BUT MOST RAIN WILL
ONLY PRODUCE TRACES AND ANY LIGHT MEASURABLE AMOUNTS SHOULD BE VERY
SPOTTY. WITH THE HIGHER CLOUD COVER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES
ALOFT MOVING IN...HAVE GONE WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES NEAR OR A LITTLE
BELOW YESTERDAYS LEVELS.

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

MUCH LIKE YESTERDAY...LITTLE CHANGE IN THE PATTERN IS ANTICIPATED
THROUGH THE PERIOD. HUDSON BAY UPPER LOW WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN WITH
TIME...BUT WRN RIDGE/ERN TROUGH LONG WAVE PATTERN WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE KEEPING IA RELATIVELY COOL AND DRY. ANY PRECIP THAT OCCURS
TODAY WILL LIKELY FADE DIURNALLY SO FORECAST IS DRY UNTIL MOISTURE
AND INSTABILITY INCREASE SLIGHTLY INTO FRI AND SAT. ANYTHING THAT
DOES OCCUR WOULD STILL LIKELY BE UNORGANIZED WEAK PEAK HEATING
CONVECTION WITH LITTLE SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING OR LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE SO NOTHING MORE THAN LOW END CHANCES.

WITH IA IN WEAK NW FLOW BETWEEN THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE/TROUGH...
SURFACE FEATURES AND TEMPS WILL CHANGE LITTLE.  PERSISTENT WEAK MO
VALLEY SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BREAKS DOWN SOMEWHAT LATER IN THE WORK
WEEK WITH WEAK LEE SIDE CYCLOGENESIS...BUT THE DOWNSTREAM SURFACE
FLOW WILL REMAIN WEAK AND REPLACED BY HIGH PRESSURE AGAIN BY THE END
OF THE WEEKEND.  THIS WILL RESULT IN A STAGNANT MAINLY BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURE REGIME WITH HIGHS AND LOWS OFTEN WITHIN A FIVE DEGREE
WINDOW THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...28/06Z
ISSUED AT 1144 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

CLOUD DECK IN MN IS DESCENDING UPON IA BUT THE QUESTION IS HOW FAR
SOUTH WILL IT GET.  FOR NOW I GRADUALLY SPREAD IT SOUTH REACHING
KMCW BY 09Z...KFOD BY 12Z AND IN THE AFTN BY KDSM.  AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL LIKELY PRODUCE SOME LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS THE NRN
HALF OR SO OF THE CWA.  COVERAGE WILL BE ISOLD BUT AND HARD TO TIME
SO VCSH WERE MAINLY WHAT WAS MENTIONED IN THE TAFS WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF KMCW AND KALO WHERE FORCING MAY BE A BIT BETTER.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LEE
LONG TERM...SMALL
AVIATION...FAB


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