Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Salt Lake City, UT

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000
FXUS65 KSLC 261702
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
1002 AM MST THU FEB 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A WEATHER DISTURBANCE WILL TRACK SOUTHEAST ACROSS
UTAH TODAY. A DEVELOPING STORM SYSTEM WILL AFFECT MUCH OF THE
SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL GREAT BASIN THIS WEEKEND. A THIRD STORM
WILL IMPACT THE ENTIRE AREA THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS CURRENTLY DROPPING INTO
NORTHWEST UTAH AND NORTHEAST NEVADA PER LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY.
RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS NORTHWEST FLOW AND 700MB COLD ADVECTION ALREADY
UNDERWAY ACROSS NORTHWEST UTAH AND MODELS SHOW THIS WILL CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP INTO CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN UTAH LATER TODAY. RADAR ALREADY
FILLING IN OVER NORTHERN UTAH WITH LIGHT SNOW REPORTED IN THE
MOUNTAINS AND DOWN TO AT LEAST SOME BENCH AREAS ALONG THE WASATCH
FRONT.

EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO CONTINUE TO FILL IN TODAY...BUT GENERALLY
LIGHT AND OF A SPOTTY NATURE GIVEN LACK OF A STRONG COLD
FRONT...WEAK LARGE SCALE LIFT AND MODEST INSTABILITY. GREATEST
AMOUNTS EXPECTED UP NORTH WITH THE BEST INSTABILITY...BUT HAVE
UPDATED TO INCREASE POPS A BIT DOWN SOUTH FROM AROUND CEDAR CITY TO
GREEN RIVER NEAR AN AREA OF SFC-700MB CONVERGENCE THIS AFTERNOON.
OTHERWISE HAVE ALSO INCREASED SKY COVER OVER SOUTHERN UTAH FOR THE
REST OF THE DAY AND MADE MINOR TWEAKS TO WIND GRIDS.

AS THIS STORM EXITS THE AREA TONIGHT...THE NEXT STORM WILL BEGIN TO
DROP IN FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THIS STORM IS EXPECTED TO CARVE
SOUTH ALONG THE WEST COAST...FORMING AN ELONGATED NORTHEAST TO
SOUTHWEST-ORIENTED TROUGH AXIS AS THE STORM STARTS TO SPLIT. A
CHANCE STILL EXISTS FOR POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT SNOW FOR MAINLY
SOUTHERN AND PORTIONS OF CENTRAL UTAH UNDER LONG-DURATION
PRECIPITATION EVENT LATE FRIDAY THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY. STILL SOME
MODEL DIFFERENCES TO WORK OUT REGARDING QPF AND WHERE THE FOCUS OF
HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION WILL BE LOCATED.

&&

.AVIATION...CEILINGS AT THE SLC TERMINAL ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEAR
OR BELOW 5000 FEET AGL INTO THE AFTERNOON. CONDITIONS MAY DROP INTO
THE MVFR RANGE AT TIMES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON IN RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

CHENG/KRUSE

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)


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