Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Salt Lake City, UT

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000
FXUS65 KSLC 201521
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
921 AM MDT SUN JUL 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A WEAK SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTH ACROSS UTAH TODAY. A
DRIER SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL FOLLOW FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY. MOISTURE
WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...UPPER RIDGE REMAINS CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN NEW
MEXICO THIS MORNING WITH A WEAK CLOSED LOW OFF THE SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA COAST. A WEAK SHORT WAVE...APPARENT IN SATELLITE WATER
VAPOR IS ROTATING NORTHWARD AROUND THIS LOW IS SHEARING APART
WITH THE EASTERN PORTION LIFTING ACROSS NORTHERN UTAH AT THIS
TIME AND EXPECTED TO EXIT THE STATE BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THIS EVENING. THIS FEATURE HAS ALLOWED AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE
OVER THE CWA...BUT IT IS MAINLY AT MID AND UPPER LEVELS. EXPECT
ONLY A FEW DROPS AND PLENTY OF VIRGA. SHOWERS WITH THIS WEAK SHORT
WAVE ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE NUMEROUS AS DAYTIME HEATING ADDS
TO THE LIFT. AS THIS FEATURE MOVES NORTH...THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF
THE STATE WILL BE UNDER A MORE SUBSIDENT ENVIRONMENT AND
CONVECTION THERE SHOULD BE SUPPRESSED. A FEW WEAK CELLS COULD
STILL FORM. NO UPDATES NEEDED THIS MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION...SOUTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AT THE SLC
TERMINAL THROUGH THE DAY. THERE IS A 30 PERCENT CHANCE THAT WINDS
COULD SHIFT TO WEST NORTHWEST FOR A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME BETWEEN
18-21Z. GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE FROM NEARBY SHOWERS. THERE IS A
10 PERCENT CHANCE THAT THUNDERSTORMS MAY IMPACT THE TERMINAL AFTER
18Z.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A DISTURBANCE MOVING NORTH ACROSS THE STATE TODAY
WILL BE THE FOCUS OF CONVECTION. THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS
DISTURBANCE WILL BE ACROSS CENTRAL UTAH THIS MORNING AND INTO
NORTHERN UTAH BY MIDDAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
ACCOMPANY THIS DISTURBANCE WHILE ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
MAY BE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE. DRYING WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE EXTREME
SOUTH BY EARLY AFTERNOON AND SPREAD INTO CENTRAL UTAH BY EVENING.
SOUTH WINDS WILL BECOME SOMEWHAT GUSTY OVER WEST
CENTRAL...SOUTHWEST...AND EAST CENTRAL AREAS TODAY BUT RELATIVE
HUMIDITY LEVELS SHOULD BE SOMEWHAT ELEVATED PREVENTING RFW CRITERIA
FROM BEING MET. THE MODELS ARE SOMEWHAT AT ODDS ABOUT WINDS ON
MONDAY BEING STRONG ENOUGH TO REACH RFW CRITERIA NOT ONLY ACROSS THE
WESTERN VALLEYS BUT ALSO ACROSS EASTERN ZONES 490 AND 491. TUESDAY
LOOKS TO HAVE THE STRONGEST WINDS WHICH MAY LINGER INTO WEDNESDAY
BUT THE RELATIVE HUMIDITIES MAY CLIMB ENOUGH TO PREVENT THE
DEVELOPMENT OF WIDESPREAD CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.


&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING
     FOR UTZ478-492-495.

WY...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC/AVIATION...YOUNG
FIRE WEATHER......HOSENFELD

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)



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