Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Salt Lake City, UT

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000
FXUS65 KSLC 162152
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
252 PM MST TUE DEC 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC WILL
SEND A SERIES OF WEAK WEATHER SYSTEMS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR FRIDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM (THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY)...
WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS A RIDGE PROPAGATING INTO THE
ROCKIES...WITH A WEST COAST TROUGH. THE FIRST EJECTING WAVE WAS
CROSSING CENTRAL NEVADA. AMDAR 400-250MB WIND OBSERVATIONS
INDICATE A 100-150KT ANTICYCLONIC JET FROM THE FOUR CORNERS INTO
THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. A NORTHERLY 110-165KT WAS
WELL OFF THE PACIFIC COAST. GOES/GPS/RAP/12Z RAOB INDICATE THE
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUE RANGES BETWEEN 0.15" MOUNTAINS...TO 0.40"
MOST VALLEYS. BLENDED PRECIPITABLE WATER PRODUCT SHOWS AN INCREASE
IN MOISTURE FROM THE WEST WITHIN THE TROUGH AXIS.

SHOULD BECOME A QUIET NIGHT ACROSS THE REGION AS THE FIRST WAVE
EJECTS NORTH OF THE REGION. THE DISTURBANCE OFF THE WEST COAST
CURRENTLY CAN BE SEEN ON WATER VAPOR ELONGATING. THIS FEATURE IS
FORECAST TO SPLIT...WITH THE SOUTHERN ENERGY TAKING AIM ON
ARIZONA.

MODELS HAVE TRENDED FURTHER SOUTH...AND HENCE LESS QPF ACROSS
SOUTHERN UTAH WITH THIS SYSTEM. HAVE LOWERED POPS TO HIGH CHANCE
RANGE TOMORROW.

COULD SEE A FEW MOUNTAIN SHOWERS DEVELOP THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH
RESIDUAL MOISTURE IN THE AREA AND ONE LAST WEAK ELONGATED WAVE
CROSSING THE EASTERN GREAT BASIN.

RIDGING BUILDS IN FRIDAY BUT COMBINATION OF RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AND BUILDING MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL MAINTAIN PARTLY TO
MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS. CONTINUED WARM THROUGH THE SHORT RANGE
OF THE FORECAST.

&&

.LONG TERM (AFTER 00Z SATURDAY)...
A SHORTWAVE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BE CROSSING THE CWA AT THE START
OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD. AS THE EASTERN PACIFIC HIGH
AMPLIFIES ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST US...SEVERAL WEAK DISTURBANCES
EMBEDDED WITHIN NORTHWEST FLOW WILL IMPACT THE AREA THROUGH THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. WITH WEAK WARM ADVECTION IN PLACE
ACROSS THE NORTH THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD...KEPT ABOVE CLIMO
POPS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS FOR MUCH OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST. THE
BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION IN THE VALLEYS...THOUGH STILL A LOW
END THREAT...IS EXPECTED TO BE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS A WEAK WAVES
PASSES BY.

&&

.AVIATION...NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE AT SLC TERMINAL
THROUGH 02-03Z BEFORE SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHEAST. CEILINGS WILL
GRADUALLY DECREASE TO 6000 FEET AGL BY 00-01Z AND REMAIN NEAR THAT
LEVEL THROUGH THE NIGHT.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ROGOWSKI
LONG TERM/AVIATION...KRUSE

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)


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