Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Salt Lake City, UT

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000
FXUS65 KSLC 252201
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
401 PM MDT MON APR 25 2016

.SYNOPSIS...A SLOW MOVING STORM SYSTEM WILL CROSS UTAH THROUGH
TUESDAY. THE SERIES OF STORM SYSTEMS WILL CONTINUE WITH ANOTHER
SYSTEM EXPECTED FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK...AND A THIRD FOR
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM (THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY)...AN UPPER LOW SPINNING ACROSS
SOUTHERN UT WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY TREK EAST INTO THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES REGION OVERNIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. A MODESTLY UNSTABLE
AIRMASS ACROSS NORTHERN UT COUPLED WITH LARGE SCALE ASCENT WITHIN
A REGION OF UPPER DIFFLUENCE WITHIN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT OF THE
UPPER CIRCULATION IS MAINTAINING SEVERAL CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL UT...AND THESE SHOULD
CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS.

FURTHER SOUTH PRECIPITATION IS MORE CLOSELY ALIGNED WITH THE MID
LEVEL CIRCULATION AND SHOULD CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS
ACROSS THE SOUTH AS THIS FEATURE SLOWLY CONTINUES EASTWARD. HAVE
MAINTAINED LIKELY POPS FOR MOST VALLEY LOCATIONS EXCLUDING THE
EAST...AND CATEGORICAL POPS IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN THROUGH TONIGHT.

AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES EAST INTO COLORADO A PERIOD OF WARM
AIR/MOISTURE ADVECTION ON THE BACK SIDE OF THIS LOW IS EXPECTED TO
SPREAD ACROSS NORTHERN UT TUESDAY MORNING WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR
A PERIOD OF BETTER ORGANIZED AND WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION WITH
ACCUMULATING SNOW ABOVE ROUGHLY 7 KFT. THIS PRECIPITATION MAY
LINGER INTO THE AFTERNOON BEFORE SLOWLY DIMINISHING. GIVEN WARM
SURFACE TEMPS AND LIMITED IMPACT HAVE HELD OFF ON ANY SORT OF
WINTER WX HEADLINES FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN THROUGH THIS PERIOD.

WEAK MID LEVEL RIDGING IS FORECAST TO BUILD INTO THE REGION
LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY...BEFORE THE NEXT UPSTREAM
WAVE DROPS INTO THE GREAT BASIN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. LARGE SCALE
ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS UPSTREAM WAVE IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WHICH SHOULD YIELD
INCREASING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES.
AS SUCH HAVE INCREASED POPS ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

.LONG TERM (AFTER 00Z THURSDAY)...ACTIVE SPRING PATTERN CONTINUES
INTO THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST. AS IS THE CASE WITH
THESE TYPE OF SYSTEMS...NARROWING DOWN SPECIFIC DETAILS IN THE
EXTENDED FORECAST IS DIFFICULT AT BEST. TO START...AN UPPER LEVEL
LOW WILL BE DEEPENING ALONG THE WEST COAST WEDNESDAY EVENING. THIS
LOW WILL THEN MOVE EAST ACROSS ARIZONA THROUGH THE DAY
THURSDAY...FINALLY EJECTING OUT OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST FRIDAY
AFTERNOON.

SUFFICIENT FORCING WILL EXIST WEDNESDAY EVENING INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT
FOR FAIRLY WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION ACROSS PORTIONS OF UTAH.
CURRENTLY...GLOBAL MODELS/ENSEMBLES FAVOR A LOCATION OF HEAVIEST
PRECIPITATION BETWEEN ROUGHLY CEDAR CITY AND WENDOVER. FAIRLY HIGH
SNOW LEVELS WILL KEEP THIS PRECIPITATION RAIN FOR ELEVATIONS AS HIGH
AS 8500 FEET. YET ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW IS EXPECTED TO SLIDE INTO
THE AREA IN NORTHWEST FLOW SATURDAY.

THE MAIN POINT...PERIODS OF PRECIPITATION...POSSIBLY HEAVY AT TIMES
WEDNESDAY EVENING/NIGHT ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH AT LEAST THE WEEKEND IF
NOT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS SHOULD ALSO KEEP TEMPERATURES NEAR TO
BELOW NORMAL LEVELS THROUGH THE LONG TERM FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION...SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE IN AND AROUND THE KSLC TERMINAL
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS WITH A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF A
THUNDERSTORM DIRECTLY IMPACTING THE TERMINAL THROUGH 04Z. WINDS
WILL REMAIN PREDOMINANTLY SOUTH THROUGH 03Z BEFORE SWITCHING TO
THE NORTHWEST WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT...HOWEVER
GUSTY/ERRATIC WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH ANY STORMS WHICH CROSS
THE AIRFIELD.

CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER BELOW 5 KFT LATER THIS
EVENING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF
MVFR CIGS/VIS WITHIN PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SEAMAN/KRUSE

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)



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