Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Salt Lake City, UT

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000
FXUS65 KSLC 142201
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
401 PM MDT SUN SEP 14 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN WILL
STRENGTHEN OVER THE REGION EARLY THIS WEEK. MOISTURE WILL SPREAD
NORTH INTO SOUTHERN UTAH EARLY WEDNESDAY...THEN CONTINUE NORTH
ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA BY THURSDAY.



&&

.DISCUSSION...A RELATIVELY STATIONARY HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE HAS
BUMPED TEMPERATURES UP A BIT FROM YESTERDAY STATEWIDE. MOISTURE
TRAPPED UNDER THE RIDGE AND A MODICUM OF INSTABILITY HAVE ALLOWED
A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION. THE RIDGE
WILL AMPLIFY MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BUILDS
IN THE PACIFIC...LIMITING ANY CONVECTION TO THE HIGHEST TERRAIN
THROUGHOUT THE CWA.

THE DEEPENING TROUGH BECOMES A MAJOR PLAYER ON WEDNESDAY AS IT
SHOVES THE RIDGE TO THE EAST AND INHALES MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH
HURRICANE ODILE INTO SOUTHERN UTAH. MODEL DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S
BEGIN TO NUDGE INTO THE SOUTHWEST CORNER OF THE STATE WEDNESDAY
MORNING AND PWAT VALUES SURGE ABOVE AN INCH BY THE
AFTERNOON...ENCOURAGING ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP FROM THE
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST HIGH TERRAIN. BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON THE
MOISTURE HAS EMBRACED MOST OF THE CWA. FORECAST PWAT VALUES
NEARING 1.25 INCHES WILL COINCIDE WITH MODERATE CAPE AND GOOD
INSTABILITY TO ALLOW WIDESPREAD AFTERNOON CONVECTION ON
THURSDAY...PROMOTING POTENTIAL HEAVY RAINFALL IN THE SOUTHWEST.
DRYING BEGINS IN THE NORTHWEST BY FRIDAY...THOUGH CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN REGIONS WILL LIKELY STILL EXPERIENCE AMPLE RAINFALL
THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

THE ECMWF AND GFS MODELS ARE CLOSER IN AGREEMENT REGARDING THE
FORMATION OF A CLOSED LOW IN THE GREAT BASIN LATE IN THE
WEEK...WHICH COULD MAINTAIN THE THREAT OF PRECIP FOR SOUTHERN UTAH
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE AT THE SLC
TERMINAL. A WIND SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST IS EXPECTED BETWEEN
02-04Z.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE DISTRICT THROUGH
TUESDAY. THIS WILL KEEP MILD AND GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS IN
PLACE...THOUGH ENOUGH INSTABILITY WILL BE AROUND TO PRODUCE ISOLATED
AFTERNOON CONVECTION OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. DEEP MOISTURE WILL
MOVE INTO THE STATE BY LATE WEDNESDAY AND HAS THE POTENTIAL TO
PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 2 PM TO 8 PM MDT TODAY WYZ277

&&

$$

PUBLIC...VERZELLA
FIRE WEATHER...TRAPHAGAN
AVIATION...KRUSE

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)


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