Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Salt Lake City, UT

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000
FXUS65 KSLC 272302
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
402 PM MST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A STORM SYSTEM WILL CROSS NORTHERN UTAH TONIGHT THROUGH
THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP DURING THE
LATTER PORTION OF THE WEEK ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST...AND MAY
IMPACT PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN UT.

&&

.SHORT TERM (THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY)...STORM SYSTEM CURRENTLY CENTERED
OVER WEST-CENTRAL NEVADA WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK TOWARDS NORTHWEST
UTAH BEFORE TURNING EAST. FIRST ROUND OF SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
BOUNDARY LIFTING NORTH ENDED UP NOT PRODUCING MUCH IN THE WAY OF
PRECIPITATION ACROSS NORTHERN UTAH. IN ITS WAKE PARTIAL CLEARING OF
SKIES WAS OBSERVED ACROSS WESTERN UTAH...AND SOUTHERLY SURFACE
GRADIENT COMBINED WITH 700MB WINDS 25-30KT PRODUCED LOCALLY GUSTY
WINDS. THE WINDS AND OCCASIONAL SUNSHINE ALLOWED BETTER MIXING IN
THESE AREAS. SOME WESTERN VALLEYS WARMED INTO THE UPPER 50S AS A
RESULT...AND SALT LAKE CITY MANAGED TO BREAK ITS RECORD HIGH FOR
TODAY.

MOST OF THE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE STORM HAS ALREADY WRAPPED
BACK AROUND TO ITS NORTH AND WEST. AS THE STORM TRACKS THROUGH
NORTHERN UTAH TONIGHT...BULK OF THIS MOISTURE IS PROGGED TO REMAIN
OVER IDAHO AS A RESULT. HOWEVER...ASSOCIATED 500MB COLD POOL DOWN TO
-22C SHOULD BE CENTERED OVER NORTHERN UTAH BY 6Z. EXPECT ENOUGH
MOISTURE IN PLACE TO COMBINE WITH THIS COLD POOL TO GENERATE SOME
SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN UTAH TONIGHT. BY TOMORROW MORNING...THE
STORM SYSTEM WILL BE ON ITS WAY OUT OF THE AREA...BUT A FEW SHOWERS
LOOK TO LINGER IN MOIST NORTHWEST FLOW BEFORE TAPERING OFF TOMORROW
EVENING. ALTHOUGH THE AIRMASS WILL REMAIN MILD...SNOW LEVELS ARE
EXPECTED TO LOWER TO NEAR 6KFT TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW.
HOWEVER...ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE MINOR GIVEN SPOTTY SHOWERS...LOW
EXPECTED QPF AND RELATIVELY LOW SNOW RATIOS.

A BIT OF A BREAK IN THE WEATHER IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BRIEFLY INTO UTAH. NEXT STORM
SYSTEM DEVELOPING UPSTREAM COULD BEGIN TO DRAW MOISTURE BACK INTO
THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH...PRODUCING SOME PRECIPITATION IN
OVERRUNNING SITUATION BEGINNING THURSDAY EVENING.

&&

.LONG TERM (AFTER 12Z FRIDAY)...DEEP MOISTURE FROM THE TROUGH
CENTERED ALONG THE CALIFORNIA COAST IS PROGGED TO CONTINUE TO MOVE
INTO THE AREA FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THE SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING
EASTWARD INTO ARIZONA THROUGH SATURDAY BEFORE DROPPING BACK SOUTH
SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY. AS THE MOISTURE INCREASES...SO WILL THE
INSTABILITY. BEST SHOT FOR PRECIP LOOKS TO BE OVER CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN UTAH...CLOSER TO THE MAIN SYSTEM. HOWEVER...CANNOT RULE OUT
SOME LIGHT PRECIP FOR NORTHERN UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING AS WELL.
MODELS HAVE REMAINED FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH THE CURRENT
SOLUTION...SO HAVE RAISED POPS SLIGHTLY WITH INCREASING CONFIDENCE.

HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO REBUILD OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST BEHIND
THE EXITING SYSTEM...RESULTING IN A MORE DRY AND STABLE AIRMASS FOR
THE FORECAST AREA. EC/GFS BOTH SHOW A WEAK WAVE POSSIBLY IMPACTING
NORTHERN UTAH ON TUESDAY...WITH THE EC FLATTENING OUT THE RIDGE
AHEAD OF IT ON MONDAY...SOONER THAN THAN GFS. THIS WOULD BRING AN
OUTSIDE THREAT OF MOUNTAIN PRECIP FOR THE END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN MILD ACROSS THE STATE
THROUGH THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD...AT LEAST 5F ABOVE SEASONAL
NORMS.

&&

.AVIATION...THE SLC TERMINAL WILL SEE VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
EVENING. CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP TO OR BELOW 6000 FT AGL FOR A
TIME BETWEEN ABOUT 02Z AND 08Z WITH SHOWERS IN THE VICINITY OF THE
TERMINAL. LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN TO THE SOUTHEAST BY
01Z.

$$


&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

CHENG/TRAPHAGAN

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)



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