Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Salt Lake City, UT

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203
FXUS65 KSLC 011510
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
910 AM MDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.SYNOPSIS...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL WORK ITS WAY THROUGH THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL RETURN TO THE
INTERIOR WEST BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS
SHOW AN UPPER LOW SPINNING ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST...WITH A
SOMEWHAT SUBTLE SHORTWAVE ROTATING AROUND THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY
OF THIS LOW INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN. THIS WAVE HAS HELPED
ENHANCE EASTERLY FLOW/COLD ADVECTION ACROSS NORTHERN UT RESULTING
IN A STOUT DOWNSLOPE WIND EVENT ALONG THE NORTHERN WASATCH FRONT.
LOCAL WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 70 MPH WILL LIKELY CONTINUE ACROSS
DAVIS COUNTY THROUGH AT LEAST LATE MORNING. 700MB EASTERLY FLOW
AND RESULTANT COLD ADVECTION IS FORECAST TO ABATE SOMEWHAT DURING
THE AFTERNOON...AND COUPLED WITH DAYTIME HEATING/MIXING SHOULD
DISRUPT THE CRITICAL LAYER NEAR RIDGETOP SUFFICIENTLY TO ALLOW A
MARKED DECREASE IN WIND SPEEDS BY MID AFTERNOON ACROSS THE
NORTHERN WASATCH FRONT.

WINDS ACROSS THE CACHE VALLEY HAVE ALSO STRENGTHENED THIS MORNING
WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS INTO THE 50 MPH RANGE. THESE TOO SHOULD
ABATE BY EARLY AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE FURTHER SOUTH AFTER AN INITIAL
BURST SATURDAY EVENING WINDS HAVE REMAINED WELL BELOW ADVISORY
CRITERIA IN THE SALT LAKE VALLEY...AND NEVER REALLY MATERIALIZED
ACROSS UTAH COUNTY. WENT AHEAD AND DROPPED THE GOING WIND ADVISORY
FOR THE SOUTHERN WASATCH FRONT EARLIER...AND WILL LIKELY DROP THE
ADVISORY FOR THE SALT LAKE VALLEY BY LATE MORNING IF WINDS REMAIN
BELOW THE ADVISORY THRESHOLD OF 45 MPH.

700MB EASTERLY FLOW IS FORECAST TO REMAIN IN PLACE INTO THE
EVENING AND MAY SEE A SECONDARY SPIKE IN WIND GUSTS ALONG THE
NORTHERN WASATCH FRONT THIS EVENING...ALBEIT NOT NEARLY AS STRONG
AS WHAT IS CURRENTLY ONGOING. HI-RES GUIDANCE SUGGESTS WIND GUSTS
MAY APPROACH 45-50 MPH LOCALLY NEAR FARMINGTON/CENTERVILLE...AND
MAY NEED TO REPLACE THE GOING HIGH WIND WARNING WITH A WIND
ADVISORY FOR THE EVENING HOURS LATER TODAY.

ELSEWHERE...MOISTURE WRAPPING AROUND THE UPPER LOW SPINNING
ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST CONTINUES TO SPREAD INTO THE RADAR
GAP ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN UT...AND WITH DAYTIME HEATING WILL LIKELY
SEE ADDITIONAL SHOWERS DEVELOP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON.

THE BROAD UPPER TROUGH IN PLACE ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS IS
FORECAST TO GRADUALLY FILL EARLY IN THE WEEK AS MID LEVEL RIDGING
BECOMES ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE REGION. AS SUCH WILL SEE A DOWNWARD
TREND IN PRECIPITATION ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTHERN UT ALONG WITH A
WARMING TREND AREAWIDE THROUGH TUESDAY. MILD SOUTHERLY FLOW IS
FORECAST TO DEVELOP WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT PACIFIC
TROUGH...WHICH WILL SPREAD INLAND FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...DUE TO NEARBY DOWNSLOPE WINDS ALONG THE WASATCH FRONT
EAST-SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL UNTIL 18Z - 19Z BEFORE
SWINGING SOUTHEAST. PERIODS OF ERRATIC WIND DIRECTIONS AT THE SLC
TERMINAL ARE EXPECTED INTO THIS AFTERNOON. AFTER 19Z - 20Z WINDS
SHOULD DECREASE BELOW 25-30KTS.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 3 PM MDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR UTZ002.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM MDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR UTZ001-003.

WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SEAMAN/DEWEY

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)



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