Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Salt Lake City, UT

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FXUS65 KSLC 241037

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Salt Lake City UT
437 AM MDT WED AUG 24 2016

.SYNOPSIS...A much drier northwesterly flow will spread across the
area today. Moisture will then make a quick return Thursday and
remain in place through the end of the week.


.SHORT TERM (Through 18z Saturday)...Showers have gradually
diminished across southern Utah overnight as the weather disturbance
responsible for these showers has now shifted east of the Four
Corners region. Meanwhile, an upper trough currently centered over
far northwest Montana and the Idaho panhandle continues to slowly
carve southward. A weak cold front is already draped across west-
central through northeast Utah, but will push farther south with
renewed energy today due to this trough. This will spread drier air
through much of the forecast area resulting in a less active day of
convection. That being said, lingering moisture across the far south
and southeast are still expected to generate isolated showers and
thunderstorms this afternoon over the southern mountains and adjacent
valleys to the south and southeast. Otherwise, temperatures will
trend slightly cooler than normal across northern Utah. Southern
Utah will be closer to normal but warmer than yesterday since less
cloud cover and precipitation will be present.

The aforementioned trough will carve back a bit as it approaches
northern Utah tomorrow. Winds will turn more southwesterly ahead of
this trough, drawing some moisture back into Utah. This trough will
provide some lift to aid convection which will be focused across
southern and central Utah. The moisture will remain in place Friday
as weak disturbances embedded within the mean cyclonic flow crosses
the area. This unsettled weather pattern is expected to maintain
cooler temperatures across the area through the end of the work

.LONG TERM (After 18Z Saturday)...The northern trough exits to the
east on Saturday, shifting winds northwest and delivering a dry,
relatively stable airmass to the northern 2/3 of the forecast area.
A southern trough passing across the AZ/UT border Saturday afternoon
offers lifting dynamics to a region with about 0.75 inches PWAT,
encouraging convection over the southern third of the CWA.
Temperatures for all but Utah`s very southern reaches begin their
inexorable ascent back to seasonal norms.

This final feature lingers into Sunday but is pushed far enough
south of the border that little potential exists for further
convection, save over the highest terrain in south/central Utah.
Meanwhile a ridge building off the soCal coast makes its way toward
the Great Basin, nudging high pressure and a dry, very stable
airmass into the region for Sunday into the first half of the work
week. Temps above climo and mostly sunny skies are forecast to usher
out the month of August.


.AVIATION...Light southerly winds at the SLC terminal are expected to
prevail through the morning hours. The shift to northwest is
expected in the 17-19z timeframe, with a 20 percent chance that it
could occur by 16z. VFR conditions will persist through the TAF


.FIRE WEATHER...A cooler and drier northwest flow aloft will
continue to spread southward encompassing much of the fire district
today. However, some lingering moisture across the far south and
southeast will allow for isolated showers and thunderstorms to
develop again near the higher terrain in that area. The flow will
turn more southwesterly tomorrow as a weak weather disturbance
crosses the area. This will draw moisture back into mainly southern
and central Utah with isolated to scattered mostly wet thunderstorms
expected. This moisture will remain in place on Friday, then become
more confined to the south on Saturday as the airmass begins to dry
once again. A mostly dry and warmer airmass will then settle across
the fire district Sunday through at least the first half of next


.SLC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...



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