Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Salt Lake City, UT

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000
FXUS65 KSLC 011641
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
941 AM MST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL LINGER OVER THE GREAT BASIN
THROUGH MONDAY THEN SHIFT EAST LATE TUESDAY. A DRYING AND WARMING
TREND WILL FOLLOW FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...MORNING SATELLITE IMAGERY AND OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS
DEPICTS AN UPPER LOW SPINNING ALONG THE CA COASTLINE WITH A MID
LEVEL DEFORMATION AXIS EXTENDING NORTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL NV AND
INTO NORTHERN UT. A 110KT UPPER JET ALONG THE DOWNSHEAR SIDE OF
THIS LOW STRETCHES FROM SOUTHEAST CA NORTHEASTWARD INTO SOUTHERN
UT...WITH AN INCREASE IN DIFFLUENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE ENTRANCE
REGION OF THIS JET NOTED ACROSS NORTHERN AZ. RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS
FAIRLY WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION WITHIN THIS REGION...SPREADING
NORTHWARD INTO SOUTH CENTRAL UT.

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOTED DIGGING ALONG THE BACK SIDE OF THE UPPER
LOW WILL PIVOT THE DOWNSTREAM JET TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT...ALLOWING
A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO SOUTHERN UT
THIS AFTERNOON THEN INTO CENTRAL UT OVERNIGHT AND EVENTUALLY
NORTHERN UT MONDAY LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. WITH THE BACKING FLOW
AND INCREASING WARM ADVECTION TEMPERATURES SHOULD GRADUALLY RISE
ACROSS THE SOUTH TODAY BRINGING SNOW LEVELS UP TO AROUND 5500 TO
6000 FEET...GIVEN THE LACK OF A STRONG SURFACE HIGH TO HOLD COLD
AIR IN PLACE. WITH THE RISING SNOW LEVELS AND INCREASING SNOW
DENSITY GOING WINTER WX ADVISORIES FOR THE VALLEYS OF SOUTHERN UT
APPEAR OK FOR NOW...BUT WILL NEED TO LOOK AT POSSIBLY UPGRADING
THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS TO A WARNING THIS AFTERNOON GIVEN THE
ABUNDANCE OF MOISTURE AND STRENGTH OF LARGE SCALE FORCING
OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY.

MEANWHILE FURTHER NORTH A FEW SHOWERS HAVE BEEN WORKING THEIR WAY
NORTHWARD INTO THE DEFORMATION AXIS EXTENDING ACROSS NORTHERN UT.
WEAK CONVERGENCE ALONG THIS AXIS COUPLED WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND
MODEST LAPSE RATES SHOULD PROVIDE FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE NORTHERN THIRD OF THE AREA. AS
MOISTURE ADVECTION INCREASES FROM THE SOUTH TONIGHT INTO MONDAY
PRECIPITATION SHOULD SPREAD ACROSS ALL BUT THE FAR NORTHWEST...AND
MAY NEED TO ADDRESS WINTER HIGHLIGHTS FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH
THE AFTERNOON PACKAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...SCATTERED CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED AT THE SLC TERMINAL
THROUGH TODAY WITH TEMPORARY CIGS REMAINING ABOVE 7K FT AGL. WINDS
WILL BE NORTHWEST THROUGH THE DAY WITH A SHIFT TO SOUTHEAST BETWEEN
04 AND 06Z TONIGHT. CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER BELOW 7 K FT AGL
AFTER ABOUT 06Z TONIGHT BUT COULD HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER 10-12Z.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM MST TUESDAY FOR UTZ010-517-
     518.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM MST MONDAY FOR UTZ012.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM MST MONDAY FOR UTZ016-020.

WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SEAMAN/STRUTHWOLF

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)



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