Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Salt Lake City, UT

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

000
FXUS65 KSLC 302133
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
333 PM MDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH NORTHERN UTAH THIS
EVENING BEFORE STALLING OVER CENTRAL UTAH TOMORROW MORNING. A
DRIER AND MORE STABLE PATTERN WILL RETURN FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK.


&&

.DISCUSSION...COLD FRONT LOOKS TO BE NEAR A KEKO-KSUN LINE THIS
AFTERNOON AND IS MAKING ITS WAY TOWARD NORTHWEST UTAH AS THE
ASSOCIATED STORM MOVES ACROSS IDAHO AND NEVADA. SHORTWAVE ENERGY
OUT AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM BROUGHT WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER AND A FEW
SHOWERS TO NORTHERN AND CENTRAL UTAH BUT THERE ARE NOW ONLY
SCATTERED CLOUDS OVER ALL BUT EASTERN UTAH. THERE SHOULD BE SOME
INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER AS THE STORM SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH NORTHERN
UTAH THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

MOISTURE IS LIMITED WITH THE STORM SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT...SO DESPITE THE INSTABILITY COVERAGE OF PRECIP WILL BE
LIMITED AND CONFINED TO NORTHERN UTAH. BASED ON THE HRRR AND OTHER
SHORT TERM GUIDANCE GOING POPS MAY EVEN BE A BIT OVERDONE BUT AM
HESITANT TO LOWER THEM FURTHER GIVEN THE EXPECTED INSTABILITY. THE
MORE NOTICEABLE IMPACT FROM THE SYSTEM WILL BE MUCH COOLER
TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE FRONT AS IT MOVES THROUGH NORTHERN UTAH
THIS EVENING AND STALLS OVER CENTRAL UTAH BY TOMORROW. MAXES ARE
EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 10F BELOW SEASONAL NORMS TOMORROW OVER
NORTHERN UTAH...COMPARED TO TEMPERATURES TODAY THAT ARE HOVERING
JUST BELOW CLIMO.

ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL MOVE ALONG THE UT/ID BORDER
DURING THE DAY SUNDAY BUT THE AIRMASS ALREADY STARTS TO DRY AT
THAT POINT SO THE THREAT OF PRECIP LOOKS TO END SUNDAY MORNING.
BEHIND THE EXITING SYSTEM...A DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIRMASS WILL
BUILD OVER THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF THE
UPCOMING WEEK...ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO WARM BACK NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS.

GLOBAL MODELS NOW INDICATE THAT A PACIFIC NORTHWEST TROUGH MOVING
ONSHORE WEDNESDAY WILL SHIFT THE RIDGE AXIS EASTWARD...ALLOWING
SOUTHWEST FLOW TO INCREASE. BY THURSDAY THE SYSTEM GETS CLOSE
ENOUGH TO BRING SOME COOLER AIR TO NORTHERN UTAH IN THE EC BUT IT
REMAINS WELL NORTH OF THE AREA IN THE GFS. THE PASSING SYSTEM MAY
PROVIDE A BIT OF INSTABILITY BUT IT APPEARS THE AIRMASS WILL
REMAIN MOSTLY DRY THROUGH DAY 7.

&&

.AVIATION...THE TIMING OF A POTENTIAL WIND SHIFT AT THE SLC TERMINAL
IS THE LOWEST CONFIDENCE PART OF THE CURRENT FORECAST. WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO SWITCH TO THE NORTHWEST BETWEEN 22Z AND 23Z...WITH A
CHANCE THAT WINDS REMAIN SOUTHEASTERLY THROUGH AT LEAST 00Z.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH CLEARING SKIES THROUGH
THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A WEAK COLD FRONT CURRENTLY OVER NORTHWESTERN UTAH
WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH TWO THIRDS OF THE STATE
BY THIS TIME TOMORROW. DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN ACROSS
THE SOUTH WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT/TOMORROW MORNING ACROSS MAINLY NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS. HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGING WILL BEGIN TO BUILD IN TOMORROW ALLOWING A DRYING
AND WARMING TREND TO TAKE PLACE MONDAY THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY OF
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...TRAPHAGAN
FIRE WEATHER...MERRILL
AVIATION...SCHOENING

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.