Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Salt Lake City, UT

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000
FXUS65 KSLC 251646
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
1046 AM MDT SAT JUL 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A DRY SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A DRY COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA ON
MONDAY...BRINGING MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES TO NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
UTAH THROUGH TUESDAY.


&&

.DISCUSSION...SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT PREVAILS ACROSS THE
INTERIOR WEST THIS MORNING...DOWNSTREAM FROM A MEAN MID LEVEL
TROUGH SITUATED ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST. THE AIRMASS ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA REMAINS DRY WITH GOES DERIVED PW VALUES GENERALLY
AT OR BELOW 0.5 INCHES. THE EXCEPTION IS NORTHWEST UT WHERE
LINGERING MOISTURE REMAINS...AND PW VALUES REMAIN NEAR 0.7 INCHES.
CANT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO OVER THE RAFT RIVERS
THIS AFTERNOON...OTHERWISE ANTICIPATE A DRY AND SUNNY DAY AREAWIDE
WITH MAX TEMPERATURES NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW CLIMO. GOING FORECAST
LOOKS IN GOOD SHAPE AND NO UPDATES CURRENTLY PLANNED...ALTHOUGH
WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE FAR NORTHWEST FOR POTENTIAL
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT.

THE TROUGH ALONG THE WEST COAST IS FORECAST TO AMPLIFY SUNDAY
BACKING THE DOWNSTREAM FLOW ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN...AND
ADVECTING MOISTURE IN PLACE ACROSS SOUTHERN AZ NORTHWARD INTO THE
FOUR CORNERS REGION. MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THIS MOISTURE WILL
GENERALLY REMAIN EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY...ALTHOUGH WOULD
NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE HIGH BASED CONVECTION OVER THE HENRY
MOUNTAINS AND PERHAPS AS FAR NORTH AND WEST AS BOULDER MOUNTAIN AS
WELL SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE AIRMASS IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN QUITE DRY
ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA...AND WITH THE BACKED FLOW WARMER
AIR WILL ADVECT INTO THE FORECAST AREA ALLOWING FOR A WARMING
TREND.

THE PACIFIC COAST TROUGH IS FORECAST TO SWING INLAND AND THROUGH
THE GREAT BASIN MONDAY...PUSHING A GENERALLY DRY COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA...ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR TWO IS
POSSIBLE ALONG THE IDAHO BORDER. A MUCH COOLER AIRMASS IN THE
WAKE OF THIS FRONT WILL KEEP MAX TEMPERATURES CONFINED TO THE
UPPER 70S ACROSS NORTHERN UT TUESDAY.

MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE MID LEVEL RIDGE CURRENTLY
CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL RETROGRADE AND AMPLIFY
ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS DURING THE MIDDLE TO LATTER PORTION OF
NEXT WEEK...WITH MONSOON MOISTURE POTENTIALLY RETURNING TO THE
FORECAST AREA LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT KSLC THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD...WITH NORTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY 18Z.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL STRENGTHEN A BIT
SUNDAY...WHICH MAY RESULT IN MARGINALLY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS WHERE FUELS ARE DRY ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST UTAH.
A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE DAY MONDAY
BRINGING MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES TO NORTHERN AND CENTRAL UTAH.
HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP DURING THE MIDDLE TO
LATTER PORTION OF NEXT WEEK ALLOWING FOR A WARMING TREND...WITH
MOISTURE POTENTIALLY RETURNING LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SEAMAN

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)


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