Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Salt Lake City, UT

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000
FXUS65 KSLC 151002
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
402 AM MDT TUE APR 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS NORTHERN UTAH THIS
AFTERNOON...THEN CONTINUE SOUTH THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
STATE OVERNIGHT. A PAIR OF WEAK WEATHER SYSTEMS WILL FOLLOW FOR
WEDNESDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM (THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY)...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY
CROSSING THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL CONTINUE ON AN EAST-SOUTHEAST
TRAJECTORY TODAY AS IT CROSSES THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. THE
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO REACH NORTHWEST UT THIS
AFTERNOON...THEN CONTINUE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST AREA TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT IN KEEPING THE BEST UPPER
LEVEL FORCING AND MOISTURE NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH THE
COLD FRONT REMAINING MOSTLY DRY ASIDE FROM A FEW SHOWERS. AS SUCH
HAVE TRIMMED POPS DOWNWARD ANOTHER 10 TO 20 PERCENT ALONG THIS
BOUNDARY. WINDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE POST
FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT ACROSS NORTHWEST UT THIS AFTERNOON...HOWEVER
THE POST-FRONTAL GRADIENT IS NOT PARTICULARLY STRONG AND WITH
700MB FLOW IN THE 30-35 KT RANGE WINDS WOULD SEEM TO COME UP A BIT
SHY OF ADVISORY CRITERIA...THUS HAVE HELD OFF ON THE ISSUANCE OF
ANY HEADLINES.

A WEAK SECONDARY SHORTWAVE IS FORECAST TO TRANSLATE EASTWARD
ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT BASIN DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY...BRINGING
ANOTHER SMALL CHANCE FOR SHOWERS TO NORTHERN AND CENTRAL UT. AS
THIS WAVE MOVES EAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SHORTWAVE RIDGING IS
FORECAST TO AMPLIFY ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT BASIN THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM (AFTER 12Z FRIDAY)...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH
AWAY FROM THE AREA FRIDAY MORNING. MODEL TO MODEL CONSISTENCY HAS
INCREASED OVER THE PAST FEW MODEL RUNS...WITH BOTH THE 00Z EC AND
THE 00Z GFS INDICATING A FAIRLY WEAK...SPLITTING SYSTEM WILL CROSS
THE AREA LATER FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. EXPECT THE ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT TO CROSS THE STATE SATURDAY. THERE SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT LIFT
NEAR AND BEHIND THE COLD FRONT TO DEVELOP AT LEAST A FEW SHOWERS.
INCREASED POPS A BIT MORE TOWARD CLIMO GIVEN THE INCREASING
CONFIDENCE AS MODEL CONSISTENCY HAS IMPROVED. IT SHOULD BE
NOTED...HOWEVER...THAT THE GFS ENSEMBLE CONTINUES TO SHOW SOMEWHAT
LARGE SPREAD WITH DEPTH AND SPEED OF THIS SYSTEM.

A VERY LARGE PACIFIC SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE WEST COAST
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE 00Z GFS STILL BRINGS A FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT STORM
THROUGH AT LEAST NORTHERN UTAH LATER IN THE WEEK WHILE THE 00Z EC IS
CONSIDERABLY FURTHER NORTH...WITH JUST A DRY COLD FRONT FOR UTAH.
SUFFICE IT TO SAY...CONFIDENCE IN ANY SOLUTION IS LOW AT BEST.

&&

.AVIATION...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE AT THE SLC TERMINAL
THROUGH THE MORNING. EXPECT AN UPTICK IN SPEEDS AFTER 16Z. A COLD
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE TERMINAL BETWEEN 21-23Z...SHIFTING
THE WINDS TO THE NORTHWEST.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SEAMAN/KRUSE

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)



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