Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Salt Lake City, UT

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000
FXUS65 KSLC 261016
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
416 AM MDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING A WARMING TREND TO THE REGION
INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM (THRU 00Z MON)...THE AXIS OF THE UPPER RIDGE REMAINS
OVER THE WEST COAST STATES EARLY THIS MORNING WITH A COOL DRY
NORTHERLY FLOW OVER THE CWA. WEAK WARM ADVECTION DID GENERATE A
FEW MID CLOUDS ACROSS THE NORTH DURING THE NIGHT BUT THESE ARE
DISSIPATING AT THIS TIME AND SHOULD BE GONE NOT LONG AFTER
SUNRISE.

OTHERWISE EXPECT OCCASIONAL MOSTLY THIN CIRRUS TO CROSS THE CWA
TODAY WITH AIRMASS WARMING PUSHING MAX TEMPS UP ABOUT 10 DEG FROM
YESTERDAY. THE LOCAL NORTH WINDS THAT PERSISTED IN DOWNSLOPE AREAS
OF ERN AND SRN UT SHOULD DIMINISH EARLY TODAY AS THE FLOW ALOFT
BECOMES LIGHTER AND THE SURFACE GRADIENT RELAXES.

EXPECT LESS CIRRUS AND A CONTINUED WARMING AIRMASS TONIGHT THRU
FRI AS THE UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS INTO THE GREAT BASIN. THE RIDGE AXIS
SHIFTS EAST SAT AS A WEAKENING PAC SHORT WAVE CROSSES THE NRN
ROCKIES AND SENDS A LOW LEVEL COLD FRONT INTO NRN UT DURING THE
AFTN.

MED RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO DIVERGE ON HOW THEY HANDLE THIS
WAVE WITH THE GFS LEAVING THE BOUNDARY STALLED ACROSS THE NRN CWA
INTO SUNDAY AND GENERATING SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION ALONG IT.

THIS WAVE IS DEEPER IN THE EC AND THE SURFACE BOUNDARY SWEEPS OUT
OF THE CWA BY SAT NIGHT TAKING THE THREAT OF ISOLATED CONVECTION
WITH IT.

HAVE KEPT A LOW POP IN THE FORECAST FOR SAT AFTN/EVE AND AGAIN SUN
PER GFS AND RELUCTANCE TO MAKE CHANGES AS CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN
THE FORECAST PAST SAT MORNING. ALSO KEPT SAT TEMPS WARM BUT THE
EC COULD JUST AS EASILY BE RIGHT WITH THE STRONGER FRONT SENDING
COOLER AIR INTO THE CWA SAT AFTN.

&&

.LONG TERM (AFTER 00Z MONDAY)...MADE MINIMAL CHANGES TO PREVIOUS
LONG TERM FORECAST AS SIMILAR SPREAD IN GLOBAL GUIDANCE EXISTS AND
CONFIDENCE IN FORECAST DETAIL REMAINS LOW. WHAT IS EVIDENT IS THAT
SEVERAL PROGRESSIVE SHORT WAVES WILL BE TRANSLATING EAST THROUGH THE
PACNW INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES REGION DURING THE LONG TERM
PERIOD...WITH SOUTHERN EXTENT OF WAVES BOTH TUE AND THU POTENTIALLY
CLIPPING NORTHERN UTAH/SW WYOMING. FOR NOW MODELS SUGGEST PRIMARILY
SHALLOW AND MOSTLY DRY COLD FRONTS PASSING THROUGH THE NORTH WITH
EACH WAVE...WITH A NET COOLING OF TEMPS THE MOST NOTED CHANGE IN
SENSIBLE WEATHER. THIS SAID...A SLIGHT SOUTHERN SHIFT OF THE MEAN
STORM TRACK WOULD MORE LIKELY BRING A BETTER THREAT FOR PRECIP AND
COLDER TEMPS. FOR NOW AM MAINTAINING SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER THE
NORTHERN MTNS DURING PERIODS OF FRONTAL PASSAGES AND A COOLER TREND
OF MAX/MIN TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION...OPERATIONAL WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
MINIMAL AT THE KSLC TERMINAL THROUGH THE VALID TAF PERIOD. SOUTHEAST
SURFACE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SWITCH TO THE NORTHWEST BETWEEN 18-19Z
PER NORM...WITH VFR CONDITIONS HOLDING UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...WILENSKY
LONG TERM/AVIATION...MERRILL

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)


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