Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Salt Lake City, UT

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000
FXUS65 KSLC 092242
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
342 PM MST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SYNOPSIS...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT ACROSS THE INTERIOR WEST
WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE THROUGH THE BALANCE OF
THE WORK WEEK.


&&

.SHORT TERM (THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY)...A STRONG RIDGE REMAINS IN
PLACE OVER THE GREAT BASIN THIS AFTERNOON...WITH LOW LEVEL
INVERSION CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. MOST LOCATIONS
IN UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING HAVE SUNNY SKIES...BUT SOME AREAS
OF FOG AND STRATUS ARE LINGERING OR EVEN EXPANDING...MOST NOTABLY
A LARGE AREA OF STRATUS OVER THE NORTHWEST DESERT.

PERSISTENCE IS THE WORD OF THE DAY FOR THE FORECAST...WITH MANY OF
THE FORECAST ELEMENTS REMAINING THE SAME OR SIMILAR WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY...AS THE RIDGE SHOWS NO SIGNS OF GOING AWAY
THROUGH THIS TIME. OTHER THAN THE STRATUS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST
DESERT...WHICH WAS LEFT IN THE FORECAST FOR A COUPLE DAYS...THE
ONLY TIME THE SKY FORECAST CHANGES IS TO ACCOUNT FOR SOME
TRANSIENT CIRRUS. LEFT THE PREVIOUSLY ADVERTISED WARMING TREND IN
THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST...BUT TRIED TO SLOW THIS TREND DOWN IN
THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. ALSO EXPANDED THE MENTION OF PATCHY FOG INTO
MUCH OF WESTERN UTAH...AND THIS MAY HAVE TO BE INCREASED TO AREAS
OF FOG ON FUTURE SHIFTS DEPENDING ON OBSERVATIONS THE NEXT FEW
NIGHTS.


.LONG TERM (AFTER 00Z SATURDAY)...THE RIDGE IS PROGGED TO FLATTEN
FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY AS A PACIFIC TROUGH MOVES JUST NORTH OF THE
AREA. STILL SOME DIFFERENCES BETWEEN EC AND GFS WITH REGARD TO
TIMING AND TRACK IN THE 12Z RUNS. THE EC MOVES IT PAST
SOONER...FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING...AND KEEPS IT FARTHER
NORTH COMPARED TO THE GFS WHERE THE SYSTEM GRAZES NORTHERN UTAH
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. BOTH BRING SOME COLDER AIR ALOFT
INTO NORTHERN UTAH...BUT BECAUSE THE GFS MOVES THE SYSTEM FARTHER
SOUTH...THE SOLUTION IS A BIT COLDER FOR THE AREA.

ALL GLOBAL MODELS BRING LITTLE IN THE WAY OF MOISTURE WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE TROUGH...BUT BOTH BRING SOME MOISTURE OVER NORTHERN
UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING ON SUNDAY IN NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND THE
TROUGH. THIS WILL CAUSE INCREASING CLOUD COVER...BUT ALSO BRINGS A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIP...PRIMARILY TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THE
PASSAGE OF THE FRONT SHOULD ALSO ACT TO WEAKEN INVERSIONS OVER
NORTHERN UTAH BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW THAT THEY WILL COMPLETELY MIX
OUT. HIGH PRESSURE IS THEN EXPECTED TO RETURN FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK
BEHIND THE SYSTEM...REMAINING IN PLACE THROUGH DAY 7.

&&

.AVIATION...DENSE FOG WILL LIKELY FORM ALONG THE NORTH RUNWAY OF
THE SLC TERMINAL AGAIN TONIGHT...WITH A 40 PERCENT CHANCE THAT
THIS FOG SPREADS ACROSS THE ENTIRE TERMINAL AT SOME POINT. THE
MOST LIKELY TIME FOR THIS FOG TO DEVELOP IS BETWEEN 08Z AND
14Z...WITH ANY IMPACTS POTENTIALLY LINGERING THROUGH 18Z.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...SCHOENING
LONG TERM...TRAPHAGAN

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)


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