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000
FXUS65 KSLC 171131
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
531 AM MDT FRI MAY 17 2013

.SYNOPSIS...A COOL MOIST UPPER TROUGH WILL CROSS THE GREAT BASIN
TODAY THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY. A COLDER SYSTEM WILL CROSS THE REGION
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR THE FIRST
PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THE AXIS OF THE UPSTREAM UPPER TROF IS NEAR THE CA/NV
BORDER EARLY THIS MORNING WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT STALLED
ACROSS CENTRAL UT NEAR A VERNAL TO DELTA LINE. BANDED PRECIP HAS
PERSISTED OVER THE NWRN CORNER OF THE CWA THRU THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS AND IS BEGINNING TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AT THIS TIME.

THE BAND OF PRECIP SHOULD SHIFT EAST THIS AFTN AS THE MAIN UPPER
TROF STARTS TO CROSS THE GREAT BASIN SPREADING INTO THE WASATCH
FRONT AROUND MID AFTN. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE STATE IS
FORECAST TO WAVE BACK WWD FOR A TIME THIS MORNING BEFORE SHIFTING
EAST AGAIN THIS EVE BUT DONT EXPECT IT TO MAKE IT BACK UP TO SLC.

THE COMBINATION OF CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS AND REMAINING ON THE
COOL SIDE OF THE FRONT WILL KEEP TEMPS AT SLC QUITE A BIT COOLER
THAN YESTERDAY AND LIKELY EVEN A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL.

EXPECT FAIRLY WIDESPREAD PRECIP TO PERSIST ACROSS THE MTNS AND WRN
VALLEYS NORTH OF ABOUT MILFORD OVERNIGHT INTO SAT MORNING THEN TURN
SHOWERY AS THE UPPER TROF PASSES.

A TRAILING SHORT WAVE TROF IS FORECAST TO BRING SLIGHTLY COLDER AIR
AND ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIP TO THE NORTH WITH SNOW LEVELS LOWERING TO
NEAR 7000 FT FOR A TIME. DONT SEE ANY MORE THAN LOCAL MINOR
IMPACT OVER THE PASSES ON THE MAJOR TRANSPORTATION ROUTES.

SHOWERS LINGER OVER THE FAR NORTHEASTERN CWA INTO MON MORNING IN
WRAPAROUND BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW THEN RIDGING BUILDS QUICKLY IN
WITH TEMPS REBOUNDING TO ABOVE NORMAL BY TUE.

THE 00Z EC AND GFS CAME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON HOW THEY HANDLE THE
DEEP CLOSED LOW OVER THE PACNW AFTER TUE WITH BOTH SWINGING A LOBE
AROUND THE BASE OF THE LOW THAT PUSHES THE COLD FRONT INTO NRN UT
WED EVE. HOWEVER...THE 06Z GFS HAS DIVERGED AGAIN FROM THIS IDEA SO
CONFIDENCE IN WHETHER OR NOT THE FRONT REACHES NRN UT IS LOW. EITHER
WAY BOTH MODELS BRING THE WARM SECTOR BACK OVER THE CWA FOR THU INTO
FRI THEN DIVERGE AGAIN ON HOW THE LOW LIFTS OUT OF THE WESTERN STATES.

&&

.AVIATION...NORTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AT THE SLC
TERMINAL THROUGHOUT THE DAY. WINDS WILL LIKELY REMAIN BELOW 8 KTS
THROUGH 17-19Z. ANTICIPATE SHOWERS DEVELOPING IN THE VICINITY OF
THE TERMINAL THIS AFTERNOON BECOMING WIDESPREAD BY TONIGHT. WINDS
WILL LIKELY BE GUSTY AND ERRATIC NEAR ANY SHOWERS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A COLD FRONT STALLED ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND
WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE DISTRICT WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR MUCH
OF THE DAY TODAY BEFORE CROSSING THE STATE LATE TODAY INTO
SATURDAY. AHEAD OF THIS FRONT...EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF GUSTY
WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITIES. FUELS REMAIN BELOW CRITICAL LEVELS...SO
NO WARNINGS HAVE BEEN ISSUED. NEAR AND BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT...EXPECT SOMEWHAT COOL AND SHOWERY CONDITIONS TO PERSIST. A
SERIES OF DISTURBANCES WILL CONTINUE TO BRING COOLER CONDITIONS
AND PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND EVEN A FEW THUNDERSTORMS FOR MUCH OF
THE WEEKEND THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. A SIGNIFICANT WARMUP IS
FORECAST NEXT TUESDAY...AND THE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES SHOULD
CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

WILENSKY/KRUSE

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