Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Salt Lake City, UT

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619
FXUS65 KSLC 161540 AAA
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
940 AM MDT SAT MAY 16 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WITH SEVERAL EMBEDDED
WEATHER DISTURBANCES WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY
AND TONIGHT. A WEAK RIDGE WILL MOVE IN SUNDAY INTO MONDAY BUT
ANOTHER SYSTEM IS EXPECTED LATER MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.


&&

.DISCUSSION...WARM ADVECTION WRAP AROUND PRECIPITATION EXPANDING
ACROSS NORTHWEST UTAH THIS MORNING AND WILL SPREAD INTO THE
CENTRAL WASATCH BY LATE THIS MORNING AND SOUTHERN WASATCH BY
EARLY AFTERNOON. THE NAM AND GFS SHOW A VORTICITY LOBE MOVING
SOUTHWARD FROM IDAHO THIS AFTERNOON TO HELP ENHANCE THE
PRECIPITATION FROM THE IDAHO BORDER TO ABOUT UTAH COUNTY THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. HAVE PUSHED POPS UP TO NEAR 100
PERCENT ALONG THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN WASATCH FRONT AND MOUNTAINS
FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND FOR THE NORTHERN WASATCH ALL DAY TODAY.
INCREASED QPF AMOUNTS TO AROUND 0.50 OF AN INCH FOR THIS AFTERNOON
FROM SLC NORTHWARD. LOCAL AMOUNTS OF 0.75 OF AN INCH WOULD NOT BE
OUT OF THE QUESTION.

THE SNOW LEVELS SHOULD BE AROUND 7500 FEET BUT MAY LOWER TO JUST
BELOW 7000 FT AT TIMES IN HEAVIER PRECIP. MAIN ACCUMULATION WILL
OCCUR ABOVE 8000 FT WHERE 5-10 INCHES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT
WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE.

HAVE LOWERED TEMPS UNDER THIS RAIN AND SNOW SHIELD IN THE NORTH
TODAY AS TEMPS LIKELY AT THERE WARMEST LEVELS NOW AND WILL LIKELY
LOWER SOME THIS AFTERNOON.

FARTHER SOUTH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES GREETED THE REGION BUT CLOUDS
HAVE FILLED IN RAPIDLY ALONG THE I-15 CORRIDOR AS THE MOIST WEST
TO NORTHWEST FLOW PUSHES IN AGAINST THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THE AIR
MASS IS MOIST AND THEREFORE INSTABILITY SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. THIS IS
CURRENTLY HANDLED WELL IN CURRENT PACKAGE WITH NO UPDATES NEEDED.


&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT THE SLC TERMINAL THROUGH
THE MORNING. CIGS WILL LOWER TO NEAR 3000 FT AGL BY MIDDAY THEN
FALL BELOW THAT LEVEL AFTER ABOUT 20-21Z AS RAIN SPREADS ACROSS
THE SALT LAKE VALLEY. MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN RAIN ARE EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL FROM 21Z UNTIL AT LEAST 03-04Z THIS EVENING. THERE IS A 30
PERCENT CHANCE OF IFR CONDITIONS IN HEAVY RAIN DURING THIS PERIOD.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...STRUTHWOLF
AVIATION...STRUTHWOLF

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)



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