Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Salt Lake City, UT

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FXUS65 KSLC 210249

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Salt Lake City UT
849 PM MDT SAT AUG 20 2016

.SYNOPSIS...Moisture will spread back into much of the forecast
area Sunday into Monday. An upper level disturbance will interact
with this moisture as it crosses the region Monday into Tuesday.


.DISCUSSION...A dry northwest flow resides across the forecast
area this evening, along the eastern flank of a mid level high
centered over northern California. An elongated upper trough to
the south of this low stretches inland across the lower Colorado
River Valley, and is helping to focus convection within deeper
moisture across portions of Arizona this evening. Further north,
just enough moisture remained in place across the far south to
produce scattered high based convection this afternoon, however
this activity has weakened/diminished while moving south with the
loss of daytime heating. Went ahead and updated to remove POPs
from going forecast.

The high centered over CA will continue to break down over the
next 24 hours as an upper trough along the British Columbia
coastline digs southward. As this occurs moisture will begin to
slowly spread back northward into southern Utah during the day
Sunday, then increase across much of the remainder of the area
Monday into Tuesday as the upstream trough moves inland through
the southern Great Basin and eventually across the Colorado
Plateau region.


.AVIATION...VFR conditions will prevail at KSLC through the TAF
period, with winds becoming southerly by 04z.


.FIRE WEATHER...Moisture begins to spread back north on Sunday
which will bring isolated valley and scattered mountain
thunderstorms to central and southern Utah. There is the potential
for an isolated dry thunderstorm across west central Utah on the
leading edge of the return moisture...but confidence is low at
this time. Deeper moisture continues to spread north Monday and
Tuesday bringing the threat of storms to much of the area. A weak
storm passing north of the area will help spread drier air back
into the region during the middle of the week.

Winds will largely be terrain driven across the district on Sunday.
Monday will see an increase in southwest winds across southern Utah
although minimum relative humidity values will be trending up by
this time.


.SLC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...



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