Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Salt Lake City, UT

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FXUS65 KSLC 191558

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Salt Lake City UT
958 AM MDT Thu Oct 19 2017

.SYNOPSIS...A weak disturbance will move northeast across southern
and central Utah today, followed by a stronger and colder storm
system on Friday. Ridging will build in for Sunday through the
middle of next week.


.DISCUSSION...Weak upper level circulation over southern Nevada
early this morning will open up and become an elongated trough as
it moves northeast across southern and central Utah
today. Isolated to scattered light showers have made it as far
north as Millard and extreme southwest Emery counties so far this
morning. A few models including the 12Z NAMNST show simulated
radar echoes continuing over southeast portions of the CWA through
03Z this evening. With this slower exit of the upper level trough
have added PoPS to the Escalante Grand Staircase and Canyonlands
for this afternoon into this evening.

In addition, have added minor PoPs a little farther north over
the central mountains and the Sevier Valley for today as the HRRR
has been trending in this direction for the 22-23Z time frame
which support s the latest 12Z GFS as well.

Strong radiational inversion across northern Utah will hold down
temps across the GSL desert today but GFS and more so the NAM
shows that this inversion will get mostly erased by 2-3pm today
along the Wasatch Front and Cache Valley. Little concerned about
this as the GFS still shows a weak surface high across the north
end of the GSL at 3pm with hints of it persisting through 6pm
which would keep south winds from becoming well established. Did
not touch temps in update, but confidence in reaching 76 at SLC is
low. Amount of high clouds will likely be the determining factor
as to whether the inversion breaks.


.AVIATION...Southeast winds at the KSLC terminal are expected to
shift to the northwest between 20-21z with a 30 percent chance of
holding off until 22-23Z or not shifting at all. VFR conditions
will prevail through the TAF period.





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