Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Salt Lake City, UT

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

000
FXUS65 KSLC 211629
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
1029 AM MDT MON JUL 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BE OVER THE AREA TODAY
THROUGH TUESDAY. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH AGAIN ON
WEDNESDAY AND COULD LINGER ACROSS MAINLY SOUTHERN AND EASTERN UTAH
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A DRY SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW REMAINS IN PLACE THIS
MORNING DRIVEN BY THE RELATIVELY CLOSE PROXIMITY OF AN UPPER
LOW OFF THE SOCAL COAST...AND HIGH PRESSURE REESTABLISHING ITSELF
OVER NEW MEXICO. PWAT CONTINUES TO PLUMMET ALL AREAS OUTSIDE OF
THE EXTREME NORTHWEST AS SAID FLOW HAS ALLOWED A SUBSTANTIAL DRY
SLOT HAS SPREAD IN FROM THE SOUTH IN WAKE OF YESTERDAYS SHORT WAVE
PASSAGE. CONVECTION SHOULD FIRE OVER AND AROUND THE RAFT RIVER
MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON WHERE DEEPER MOISTURE CONTINUES TO
EXIST...BUT A NET TRYING TREND IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS
THERE AS WELL. NEAR CLIMO TEMPS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL BE THE
NORM ACROSS THE AREA TODAY THROUGH TOMORROW.

CONTINUED BUT GRADUAL WESTWARD PROPAGATION OF THE HIGH WILL ALLOW
TRAJECTORIES TO BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR A RESURGENCE OF
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THIS OWING
FOR A GREATER THREAT OF CONVECTION MOST AREAS EAST OF INTERSTATE
15 WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY THE SOUTHEAST.

LARGE SCALE PATTERN EVOLUTION WITHIN GLOBAL MODELS SUGGESTS THE
AFOREMENTIONED HIGH WILL FLATTEN AT LEAST SOME AND BULGE WEST BY
THURSDAY...THIS AS A FAIRLY SUBSTANTIAL TROUGH CARVES THROUGH THE
PACNW ON INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES STATES. AWAITING FULL SUITE OF
12Z GUIDANCE TO SEE IF PREVIOUS INCONSISTENCIES BETWEEN THE EC/GFS
HAVE IRONED OUT AT ALL...AS THE DEEPER SOLUTION IN THE 06Z GFS
WOULD LIKELY HAVE AN IMPACTED ON MAX TEMPS AND OR BREADTH OF
MOISTURE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST COME LATE WEEK.

NO UPDATES MADE OR PLANNED...

&&

.AVIATION...SOUTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY
AT THE KSLC TERMINAL...BUT A 30 PERCENT CHANCE EXISTS THAT WINDS
WILL SWITCH TO THE NORTHWEST DURING THE 22-01Z WINDOW. PERIODIC
SOUTHERLY WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 30 MPH ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
18/19Z. OUTSIDE OF THIS...OPERATIONAL WEATHER CONCERNS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE MINIMAL THROUGH THE VALID TAF PERIOD.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A SIGNIFICANTLY DRIER AIRMASS HAS MOVED INTO MUCH OF
UTAH OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL LEAD TO MUCH LOWER RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES...AS WELL AS RESTRICTING THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO FAR
NORTHERN UTAH. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS MUCH OF THE
DISTRICT THIS AFTERNOON. WHILE WIND GUSTS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO
REMAIN BELOW CRITICAL VALUES TODAY...ISOLATED CRITICAL CONDITIONS
ARE POSSIBLE...PARTICULARLY ACROSS PARTS OF WESTERN UTAH.

WINDS WILL INCREASE A LITTLE MORE ON TUESDAY...MAKING CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS MORE LIKELY ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE STATE.
THERE IS RELATIVELY LOW CONFIDENCE IN HOW STRONG WINDS WILL BE ON
TUESDAY...AND WILL EVALUATE LATER TODAY WHETHER A RED FLAG WARNING
IS NEEDED.

WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW REMAINING IN PLACE...CRITICAL CONDITIONS COULD
ALSO BE POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO RETURN FOR PORTIONS OF THE STATE WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY...ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY
     EVENING FOR UTZ478-492-495.

WY...NONE.
&&

$$

MERRILL/HOSENFELD


FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.