Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Salt Lake City, UT

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000
FXUS65 KSLC 241019
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
419 AM MDT TUE MAR 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL CROSS MAINLY NORTHERN UTAH
AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING TODAY INTO TONIGHT. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE
ALOFT WILL RETURN FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (THRU 00Z SAT)...WARM FRONTAL PRECIP AHEAD OF THE
NEXT PAC SHORT WAVE TROF HAS SPREAD THRU SWRN ID AT THIS TIME AND
IS FORECAST TO REACH FAR NRN UT NOT LONG AFTER SUNRISE THIS
MORNING. THIS SAGS SWD TO ABOUT THE SALT LAKE VALLEY BY LATE AFTN
AND THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT REACHES THE NRN BORDER.

PRECIP COULD START AS SNOW IN THE CACHE VALLEY BUT SHOULD SWITCH
OVER TO RAIN BY LATE MORNING WITH LITTLE OR NO ACCUMULATION. SOME
ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED IN THE ADJACENT NRN MTNS BUT AMOUNTS
SHOULD REMAIN SUB ADVISORY.

THE BEST CHANCE OF PRECIP FOR THE REST OF THE NRN CWA SHOULD COME
WITH THE COLD FRONT AS IT DROPS SWD THRU THIS AREA LATE AFTN/EARLY
THIS EVE. PRECIP SHOULD END FAIRLY QUICKLY LATE EVE AS THE FRONT
CONTINUES ON SOUTHWARD MOVING AWAY FROM WHATEVER WEAK UPPER
SUPPORT IT HAD.

ALTHO THIS SHORT WAVE TROF IS FAIRLY LOW AMPLITUDE IT WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY GUSTY WINDS WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS ACROSS THE
NORTH JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT THIS AFTN. THE STRONGER WINDS SHIFT
SWD AND BECOME POST FRONTAL IN THE DOWNSLOPE AREAS IN ERN UT BUT
SHOULD STAY UNDER ADVISORY LEVELS OUTSIDE OF A FEW BRIEF STRONG
GUSTS.

THE DOWNSLOPE WINDS INCREASE ACROSS WASHINGTON CO ONCE THE FRONT
PASSES THERE JUST BEFORE DAYBREAK WED AND REMAIN GUSTY INTO WED
NIGHT. HERE TOO DO NOT EXPECT MORE THAN A FEW BRIEF GUSTS TO REACH
ADVISORY LEVELS.

THE COOL DRY NORTHERLY FLOW WED WILL KEEP TEMPS NEAR NORMAL WED
THEN TEMPS SHOULD RESPOND TO AIRMASS WARMING THU/FRI AS THE
UPSTREAM RIDGE NOSES INTO THE GREAT BASIN.

&&

.LONG TERM (AFTER 00Z SATURDAY)...RIDGE AXIS CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. GFS INDICATES A PACIFIC NORTHWEST TROUGH
FLATTENING THE RIDGE AS IT TRACKS ALONG THE US/CANADA BORDER ON
SAT BUT THE EC KEEPS THIS SYSTEM FARTHER NORTH. REGARDLESS...
STILL LOOKING AT MAXES IN EXCESS OF 15F ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS
SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

MODELS CONTINUE TO BE RATHER INCONSISTENT WITH RESPECT TO HOW THEY
DEAL WITH THE STORM SYSTEM OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST THAT IS EXPECTED
TO IMPACT THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK. EC IS NOW MUCH FASTER WITH THE
SYSTEM THAN THE GFS...TRACKING THE LOW ACROSS THE UT/AZ BORDER
SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY AS IT WEAKENS. LATEST GFS IS MUCH SLOWER THAN
PREVIOUS RUNS AND NOW BRINGS IT OVER NORTHERN MEXICO MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. NEITHER SOLUTION DOES MUCH FOR THE FORECAST AREA...BUT MAY
PROVIDE ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR A FEW SHOWERS SUNDAY AND MONDAY...SO
HAVE MAINTAINED SOME TOKEN POPS IN THE FORECAST.

AFTER THIS...FLOW OVER THE AREA BECOMES MORE ZONAL AS A PACIFIC
NORTHWEST SYSTEM GRAZES NORTHERN UTAH...BRINGING A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
THROUGH ON TUESDAY. GFS SHOWING A BIT MORE MOISTURE WITH THE FRONT
THAN THE EC BUT IN BOTH SOLUTIONS COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION WOULD BE
LIGHT AT BEST. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO RETURN AFTER DAY 7.

&&

.AVIATION...THE SLC TERMINAL WILL SEE VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
MORNING WITH INCREASING CLOUDS. SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. RAIN
SHOWERS WILL IMPACT THE TERMINAL PRIMARILY ALONG AND BEHIND THE
FRONT LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING...DROPPING CIGS TO
OR BELOW 6000 FT AGL. THERE IS A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF BRIEF MVFR
CONDITIONS IN HEAVIER RAIN SHOWERS.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...WILENSKY
LONG TERM/AVIATION...TRAPHAGAN

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)



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