Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Salt Lake City, UT

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000
FXUS65 KSLC 302246
AFDSLC
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
446 PM MDT SAT MAY 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT STRENGTHENING ACROSS THE INTERIOR
WEST WILL BRING A SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND TO THE REGION THROUGH
THE REST OF THE WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A STORM SYSTEM
OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL ENTER NORTHERN UTAH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.UPDATE...QUICK UPDATE FOR CONVECTIVE TRENDS. SPC MESOANALYSIS PAGE
SHOWS ENOUGH CAPE TO SUPPORT CONVECTION INTO THE EARLY EVENING
HOURS. THIS IDEA IS ALSO SUPPORTED BY THE HRRR. MENTION CONVECTION
ACROSS NORTHWEST UTAH...AND MUCH OF THE EASTERN ZONES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...HIGH PRESSURE IS IN PLACE OVER THE FORECAST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON...RESULTING IN A WARMING TREND WITH SOME DRYING. PWS ARE
STILL IN EXCESS OF 0.5 INCH OVER MUCH OF THE STATE...BUT CONVECTION
IS STRUGGLING A BIT TO FORM OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. SO FAR IT IS
MOSTLY CONFINED TO SOUTHERN UTAH...BUT SOME ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT
IS EXPECTED BEFORE THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING THIS EVENING.
TEMPERATURES ARE NOTICEABLY WARMER THAN YESTERDAY...RUNNING AT LEAST
5F ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS.

THE WARMING AND DRYING WILL CONTINUE INTO TOMORROW AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS...WITH MAXES RUNNING AROUND 10F ABOVE CLIMO...THE
HOTTEST TEMPERATURES OF THE YEAR SO FAR. WITH MORE DRY AIR IN
PLACE UNDER A STABLE AIRMASS...AFTERNOON CONVECTION OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN WILL BE ISOLATED AT BEST.

A LARGE PACIFIC NORTHWEST STORM SYSTEM IS PROGGED TO MOVE ONSHORE
ON MONDAY...WITH A LEADING WAVE MOVING A COLD FRONT INTO NORTHERN
UTAH TUESDAY...PUSHING MAXES NEAR CLIMO OVER THE NORTH BY
WEDNESDAY. BY MIDWEEK...A SECOND WAVE FROM THE MAIN TROUGH IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE STATE...RESULTING IN SOME INCREASING
INSTABILITY FOR PRIMARILY NORTHERN UTAH. HOWEVER...THE AIRMASS IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN GENERALLY DRY. MODELS NOW INDICATE WEAK RIDGING
DEVELOPING ON THURSDAY...THOUGH INSTABILITY WILL LINGER OVER
NORTHERN UTAH.

BY THE WEEKEND...EC/GFS MOVE THE MAIN LOW ONSHORE BUT CONTINUE TO
DISAGREE ON THE DETAILS. EC STILL DROPS THE LOW DOWN INTO SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA ON FRIDAY BEFORE SLOWLY MOVING EAST OVER ARIZONA AND
NEW MEXICO OVER THE WEEKEND. MEANWHILE...THE GFS SHOWS A SPLITTING
SYSTEM. IN ITS SOLUTION THE STRONGER NORTHERN BRANCH GRAZES
NORTHERN UTAH OVER THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...WHILE THE SOUTHERN
BRANCH DIVES INTO NORTHERN MEXICO. HAVE KEPT POPS IN THE
FORECAST...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW WITH RESPECT TO THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...TDWR DATA INDICATES THE LAKE BREEZE IS STRUGGLING TO
REACH THE SLC TERMINAL THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT WINDS TO REMAIN
SOUTHERLY AT THE TERMINAL THROUGH THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOWEVER
THERE IS A 40 PERCENT CHANCE WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST
BETWEEN 22-00Z.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE FIRE
DISTRICT THROUGH TONIGHT. THE HIGH WILL THEN SHIFT EAST TOMORROW
AFTERNOON...ALLOWING SOUTHWEST FLOW TO INCREASE OVER THE AREA. AN
APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT INTO NORTHWEST UTAH
BY LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON. WARM...DRIER AND BREEZY TO WINDY
CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE FRONT...BUT FUELS HAVE NOT
CURED ENOUGH TO WARRANT ANY HIGHLIGHTS. ENOUGH MOISTURE MAY REMAIN
IN PLACE TO GENERATE A FEW TERRAIN-BASED THUNDERSTORMS
TOMORROW...THEN EXPECT GREATER COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
NORTH ON MONDAY DUE TO THE COLD FRONT.

A WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL FOLLOW FOR THE REMAINDER OF NEXT WEEK.
HOWEVER...WEAK WEATHER DISTURBANCES EMBEDDED IN THIS FLOW WILL KEEP
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTH DURING THIS TIME
WHILE SOUTHERN UTAH WILL LIKELY REMAIN DRY.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...ROGOWSKI
PUBLIC...TRAPHAGAN
AVIATION...KRUSE
FIRE WEATHER...CHENG

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)




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