Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Salt Lake City, UT

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000
FXUS65 KSLC 242035
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
235 PM MDT FRI JUL 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MOISTURE WILL REMAIN CONFINED TO FAR NORTHWEST
UTAH THROUGH TONIGHT...OTHERWISE A DRY AIRMASS WILL SETTLE ACROSS
THE AREA.


&&

.DISCUSSION...DRY SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ON THE NORTHWEST SIDE
OF AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO RESULT IN CLEAR SKIES FOR THE
MAJORITY OF THE CWA. THE EXCEPTIONS ARE OVER THE FAR SOUTHEAST WHERE
RETURN FLOW AROUND THE RIDGE HAS GENERATED SOME CLOUD COVER...AND
THE FAR NORTHWEST WHERE ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE STILL
EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVES
THROUGH.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...A VERY PLEASANT WEEKEND IS ANTIPICATED AS DRY
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW CONTINUES. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM UNDER CLEAR
SKIES AHEAD OF AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ADVANCING EASTWARD FROM THE
PACIFIC...WITH SUNDAY LIKELY THE WARMEST DAY DURING THE FORECAST
PERIOD.

MONDAY...A FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH FOR JULY WILL PASS
JUST NORTHWEST OF THE CWA...FROM IDAHO INTO MONTANA. A WEAK SURFACE
TROUGH WILL ACCOMPANY THIS FEATURE WITH SOME GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE
BEFORE AND AFTER ITS PASSAGE ON MONDAY. PRECIPITATION IS NOT
EXPECTED WITH THIS SYSTEM...AS ANY MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH TEH
SYSTEM WILL BE CONCENTRATED FURTHER NORTH.

TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL LEAD TO VERY PLEASANT CONDITIONS
OVER THE NORTHERN CWA WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES UP TO 15 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL ON TUESDAY. AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL BEGIN BUILDING OVER THE
WESTERN U.S. FOLLOWING THIS SYSTEM...AND TEMPERATURES WILL INCREASE
THROUGHOUT THE WEEK. BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...THE EC SUGGESTS THAT
SOME MOISTURE WILL WORK ITS WAY INTO THE SOUTHERN CWA...BUT THE GFS
DISAGREES AND CONFIDENCE IN THIS FORECAST IS LOW.

&&

.AVIATION...SOUTHERLY WINDS AT THE KSLC TERMINAL ARE EXPECTED TO
SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST BETWEEN 21Z AND 22Z. THERE IS A 30 PERCENT
CHANCE THIS SHIFT WILL OCCUR EVEN LATER OR WILL NOT OCCUR AT ALL.
WINDS IF THEY DO SHIFT WILL RETURN TO SOUTHERLY AROUND 04Z.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A DRYING AND WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE ACROSS UTAH
THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. TWO AREAS OF MOISTURE CURRENTLY OVER
EXTREME NORTHWEST UTAH AND NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS REGION WILL FUEL A
FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING.

A STRONG AND UNSEASONABLY COLD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SETTLE INTO
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST SUNDAY...THEN SWING EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL SETTLE INTO
NORTHWEST UTAH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT/EARLY MORNING...THEN SWEEP SOUTH
ACROSS BUT EXTREME SOUTHERN UTAH THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. DRY AIR AHEAD
OF THE FRONT WILL LIMIT PRECIPITATION. WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN ISSUE
BOTH AHEAD OF AND BEHIND THE FRONT SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MORNING
AFTERNOON. LOW HUMIDITIES AND STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS OVER WEST-
CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST UTAH SHOULD CREATE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS IN THE ZONES WHICH CURRENTLY HAVE DRY FUELS. COOL
TEMPERATURES AND MODESTLY HIGHER HUMIDITIES BEHIND THE FRONT WILL
PERSIST THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. A WARMING TREND WILL DEVELOP AGAIN
MIDWEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT SETTLES OVER THE GREAT BASIN.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...RUTZ
AVIATION...WILENSKY
FIRE WEATHER...CONGER

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)



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