Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Salt Lake City, UT

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000
FXUS65 KSLC 272109
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
309 PM MDT SAT JUN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AND REMAIN OVER THE WESTERN STATES THROUGH
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY)...
VERY HOT DAY ACROSS THE CWA TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO
GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN OVER THE EASTERN GREAT BASIN. HAVE SEEN KSLC
REACH 100F AND KSGU HAS ALREADY RECORDED 106F WITHIN THE LAST
HOUR...SHOULD BE ABLE TO SQUEAK OUT ONE OR TWO MORE DEGREES AS WE
ARE JUST NOW ENTERING THE PEAK HEATING HOURS. MODELS CONTINUE TO
REMAIN CONSISTENT REGARDING FURTHER H7 WARMING THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY
AT KSLC BEFORE PLATEAUING. HAVE MAINTAINED A FURTHER WARMING TREND
AS SUCH THROUGH MON WITH CONSECUTIVE DAYS ABOVE 100F EXPECTED
ALONG THE WASATCH FRONT. H7 TEMPS LOOK TO BE PLATEAUING ACROSS THE
SOUTH TODAY...AND WILL LIKELY SEE TEMPS LOWER A FEW DEGREES A DAY
EACH DAY...BUT ALL IN ALL ANY DROP WILL BE NEGLIGIBLE INTO EARLY
WEEK.

ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE
UINTAS AND SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS...SOME CELLS APPEARING DEEP ENOUGH TO
ALLOW FOR AT LEAST A LITTLE RAIN ON THE HIGHER TERRAIN...BUT LARGELY
THESE APPEAR TO MAINLY DRY AND GUSTY. ONE SUCH OUTFLOW PASSED
THROUGH KCDC/KBCE AND ZION OVER THE LAST HOURS TIME WITH GUSTS INTO
THE 30-40 MPH RANGE. A SIMILAR DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTIVE THREAT
WILL OCCUR TOMORROW AFTERNOON ACROSS LARGELY THE SAME AREAS AS THE
MOISTURE/HIGH POSITION WILL CHANGE LITTLE.

THE MEAN RIDGE POSITION WILL ELONGATE SOME TUE AS A WEAK TROUGH
CURRENTLY OFF THE CENTRAL CALI COAST OPENS AND MOVES NORTHEAST INTO
THE PACNW REGION. WEAK MIDLEVEL CAA ACROSS THE NORTH SHOULD HALT THE
WARMING TREND ALLOWING A FEW DEGREES OF COOLING ACROSS THE NORTH
TUE...BUT IN THE BIG PICTURE ANY DROP WILL REMAIN NEGLIGIBLE. PWAT
APPEARS TO PEAK WITH THIS /ON AVERAGE AROUND .80 INCHES/ AND EXPECT
AREAL EXTENT OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED HIGH BASED TERRAIN INDUCED
CONVECTION WILL PEAK AT THAT TIME.

.LONG TERM (BEYOND 06Z WEDNESDAY)...
HOT WEATHER WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD...HOWEVER TEMPERATURES SHOULD TREND A FEW DEGREES COOLER
ACROSS THE NORTH DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WORK WEEK.

THE RIDGE BECOMES SUPRESSED TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST DURING THE SECOND
HALF OF THE WORK WEEK...BEFORE MIGRATING OVERHEAD AGAIN NEXT
WEEKEND. THIS SHOULD SUPPORT A COOLING/DRYING NORTHWEST FLOW WHICH
WILL RESTRICT CONVECTION NORTH OF THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS AS THE
SECOND HALF OF THE WORK WEEK PLAYS OUT. BY SATURDAY...CONVECTION
APPEARS TO EXPAND BACK INTO WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN UTAH ON THE
BACKSIDE OF THE RIDGE.

&&

.AVIATION...THE SLC TERMINAL WILL SEE VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
EVENING. NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN TO THE SOUTHEAST
BETWEEN 03Z AND 05Z.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...EXCESSIVE HEAT AND LOW RH WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE
REGION FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY WITH A SLIGHT DOWNWARD TREND IN
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE SOUTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY WHILE TEMPERATURES
WILL INCREASE A COUPLE MORE DEGREES SUNDAY AND MONDAY ACROSS THE
NORTH. THE MAIN CONCERN DURING THIS HOT SPELL WILL BE THE INFUSION
OF MID-HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE WHICH WILL BRING A THREAT OF HIGH-BASED
THUNDERSTORMS TO MAINLY THE HIGH TERRAIN EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ISOLATED WITH LIGHTNING AND GUSTY
ERRATIC WINDS BEING THE MAIN THREAT.

A SLIGHT INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE OCCURS LATER MONDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE TEMPORARILY FLATTENS THE
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AND FOCUSES WHAT LITTLE MOISTURE THERE IS FOR
A SLIGHTLY HIGHER CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO
SHIFT WESTWARD IN THE WAKE OF THIS DISTURBANCE WHICH WILL ALLOW A
DRIER NORTHWEST FLOW TO SET IN FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN HOT.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MERRILL
LONG TERM/FIRE WEATHER...ROGOWSKI
AVIATION...TRAPHAGAN

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)



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