Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Salt Lake City, UT

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886
FXUS65 KSLC 022206
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
406 PM MDT MON MAY 2 2016

.SYNOPSIS...A WEAKENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS
SOUTHERN UTAH THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD STARTING
TUESDAY...BRINGING A WARMING TREND THROUGH MIDWEEK. THE NEXT
PACIFIC TROUGH WILL ADVANCE INTO THE GREAT BASIN LATE IN THE WEEK.


&&

.SHORT TERM (THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY)...A WEAKENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
IS SLIDING ACROSS THE UTAH/ARIZONA BORDER THIS AFTERNOON...AND HAS
HELPED INITIATE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF UTAH. NORTHERN UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING HAVE
PRIMARILY REMAINED CLEAR AND DRY...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME WEAK
CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. AS THE WEAK
DISTURBANCE EXITS THE REGION TONIGHT AND SOLAR HEATING IS
LOST...SHOWERS AND CLOUD COVER SHOULD DISSIPATE FAIRLY QUICKLY
BETWEEN 02Z AND 06Z...LEADING TO A MOSTLY CLEAR AND COOL NIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST STARTING
TUESDAY...WITH A CONSIDERABLE WARMING AND DRYING TREND ACROSS THE
AREA. WARMING WILL BE ESPECIALLY NOTICEABLE WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY...AS MIXING IMPROVES AND SOUTHERLY WINDS
INCREASE...THOUGH WARMING THURSDAY COULD BE HINDERED A BIT BY
INCREASING MID-LEVEL CLOUD COVER AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING PACIFIC
TROUGH. THIS TROUGH COULD BRING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO WESTERN
UTAH THURSDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING...BUT MORE WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION WILL HAVE TO WAIT UNTIL THE TROUGH MOVES INTO THE
AREA IN EARNEST BEGINNING FRIDAY.

.LONG TERM (AFTER 06Z FRIDAY)...THE ELONGATED TROUGH DIGS SOUTHWARD
WITH A CUT OFF LOW PRESSURE CENTER OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. A
PREDOMINANT SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW WILL ADVECT IN WARMER MID LEVEL
TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING TROUGH...WHEN COOLER AIR AND
DIFFLUENCE ALOFT MAY BE JUST THE COMBINATION OF DYNAMICS TO CREATE
CONVECTION FRIDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS SOUTHERN UTAH.

THE PROGRESS OF THE LOW CENTER IS ON THE SLOW SIDE...AS LINGERING
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
AGREEMENT AMONG THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS DEPICT THIS WELL.
HOWEVER...BY SUNDAY...THE GFS BEGINS TO EJECT THE LOW NORTHEASTWARD
WHILE THE EC SLIGHTLY RETROGRADES THE TROUGH...BOTH WHILE HOLDING ON
TO A CUT OFF LOW. SEVERAL VORT LOBES OF ENERGY ROTATE AROUND THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THROUGH MONDAY CREATING SOME WRAP AROUND
PRECIPITATION CHANCES MAINLY ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF UTAH
BEFORE COMPLETELY EJECTING THE TROUGH SOUTH AND EAST.

AFTER MONDAY MODEL SOLUTIONS DIFFER WITH HOW QUICKLY THE SAGGING
TROUGH EXITS AND HOW RAPIDLY RIDGING BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE SLC TERMINAL THROUGH
THE FORECAST PERIOD. NORTHWEST WINDS THIS AFTERNOON ARE EXPECTED TO
GIVE WAY TO LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS BETWEEN 0200 AND 0400 UTC.
HOWEVER...THERE IS A 20 PERCENT CHANCE THAT THIS WIND SHIFT WILL
HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER 0400 UTC.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...LINGERING MOISTURE IS PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN UTAH THIS AFTERNOON...AND
THESE SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO THE EVENING BEFORE
DISSIPATING...WITH RAPIDLY CLEARING SKIES OVERNIGHT.

SIGNIFICANTLY WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS WILL SHIFT INTO THE
STATE FOR TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH INCREASING SOUTHERLY
WINDS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE INTO THE AREA FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...BRINGING COOLER
AND MOISTER WEATHER.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/FIRE WEATHER...SCHOENING
LONG TERM...DEWEY
AVIATION...GRAHAM

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)



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