Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Salt Lake City, UT

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000
FXUS65 KSLC 252234
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
334 PM MST WED FEB 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN WILL
BRING A SERIES OF WEATHER DISTURBANCES INTO UTAH THROUGH
THURSDAY. A SLOW MOVING STORM SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE REGION LATE
FRIDAY THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM (THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY)...DEEP NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS
THE EASTERN GREAT BASIN CONTINUES THIS AFTERNOON...WITH MANY
LOCATIONS SEEING GUSTY NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS. THIS ALLOWED MANY
LOCATIONS TO REALIZE SIGNIFICANT MIXING AND THUS FAIRLY WARM
TEMPERATURES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

A SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL CROSS THE
AREA THURSDAY BRINGING THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS
MAINLY THE HIGHER TERRAIN THROUGH THE DAY AND INTO THE EVENING.
EXPECT ANY ACCUMULATIONS TO BE MINOR AND ANY SNOW THAT DOES FALL
ACROSS THE VALLEYS WILL LIKELY BE MITIGATED BY WARM SURFACE
TEMPERATURES FROM THIS AFTERNOON.

THE NEXT SHORTWAVE IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN AND DEVELOP INTO A
FAIRLY DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE WESTERN UNITED STATES
FRIDAY INTO THIS WEEKEND. THIS SYSTEM IS FAIRLY SIMILAR TO THIS
WEEKENDS STORM...BUT CUTS OFF FURTHER WEST. EXPECT THE CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION TO INCREASE ACROSS MUCH OF THE STATE FRIDAY IN
RESPONSE TO THE TROUGH PASSING OVER THE AREA...BUT DO NOT EXPECT
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE NORTH. THE STORY IS DIFFERENT
ACROSS THE SOUTH AS THE WEEKEND PROGRESSES. MORE ON THIS STORM CAN
BE FOUND IN THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION.

&&

LONG TERM (AFTER 00Z SATURDAY)...GLOBAL MODELS IN SYNC INDICATING
A DEEPENING CYCLONE TRACKING DOWN THE WEST COAST SATURDAY.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY MAINLY ACROSS
SOUTHERN UTAH THIS WEEKEND IN RESPONSE TO ARRIVAL OF EXIT REGION
OF THE UPPER LEVEL JET AND DIFFLUENCE ALOFT. THIS IS ALSO EVIDENT
WITH A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW OVER SOUTHERN NEVADA.

AS OF NOW AXIS OF HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION APPEARS TO BE FROM ARIZONA
INTO THE FOUR CORNERS AND COLORADO GIVEN MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND
ISENTROPIC LIFT TRAJECTORY. BECAUSE OF THIS WILL ALLOW MORE TIME TO
PASS BEFORE A WATCH IS CONSIDERED FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN UTAH.

GIVEN DEEPENING LOW TO OUR SOUTHWEST...NORTHEASTERLY PRESSURE
GRADIENT STRENGTHENS THIS WEEKEND ALONG WITH SOME COLD ADVECTION
FROM WYOMING AT 700MB. WILL NEED TO MONITOR POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY
DOWNSLOPE/CANYON WINDS ALONG THE WASATCH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

GLOBAL MODELS ARE AGAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT OF ANOTHER POTENTIAL
WINTER STORM SYSTEM TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. HAVE INCREASED POPS AND
HELD ONTO COLDER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE EXTENDED PORTION OF
THE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION...THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS TONIGHT TO THE SLC TERMINAL...LOWERING TO ABOUT 6KFT AROUND
MID MORNING. GUSTY NORTH-NORTHWEST WINDS WILL ABATE THIS EVENING AND
GIVE WAY TO A LIGHT SOUTHEAST DRAINAGE WIND MID EVENING.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

KRUSE/ROGOWSKI

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)


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