Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Salt Lake City, UT

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000
FXUS65 KSLC 140947
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
347 AM MDT MON APR 14 2014

.SYNOPSIS...THE REMNANT OF THE COLD PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM OVER
UTAH WILL EXIT THE STATE THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL
RETURN MONDAY...THEN WEAKEN TUESDAY AS A SERIES OF PACIFIC STORM
SYSTEMS MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN DURING THE MIDDLE OF
THE WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY)...THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WHICH
BROUGHT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA
OVER THE WEEKEND CONTINUES TO SLIDE OFF TO THE EAST...AS MID LEVEL
RIDGING ALONG THE WEST COAST BEGINS TO BUILD INLAND. LINGERING
CLOUD COVER OVER THE FAR EASTERN CWA WILL CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE
DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS LEADING TO SUNNY SKIES
AREAWIDE FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. WINDS CONTINUE TO DIMINISH ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING...AND THIS TREND WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY.

THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL WEAKEN AS IT CONTINUES
INLAND TODAY...AND EVENTUALLY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. AS
A RESULT HIGH AND EVENTUALLY MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. ANY HIGH CLOUDS DURING THE
LATE EVENING SHOULD NOT BE THICK ENOUGH TO BLOCK OUT THE LUNAR
ECLIPSE. THESE CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO THICKEN OVERNIGHT...AND
THIS COUPLED WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL KEEP ANOTHER
HARD FREEZE FROM OCCURRING ACROSS NORTHERN AND EASTERN UT...THUS
NO HEADLINES.

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH FORECAST TO MOVE INLAND DURING THE MIDWEEK
PERIOD IS EXPECTED TO PUSH A COLD FRONT INTO NORTHERN UT LATE IN
THE DAY TUESDAY...WITH THIS FRONT CONTINUING SOUTHWARD THROUGH
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN UT OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE
GFS HAS TRENDED DRIER AND LESS AMPLIFIED WITH THIS TROUGH THAN IT
HAD BEEN OVER THE PAST WEEKEND...AND THIS FRONT NOW LOOKS TO
CROSS THE AREA AS A GENERALLY DRY FEATURE WITH ONLY A SMALL CHANCE
OF PRECIPITATION. AS SUCH HAVE TRENDED POPS DOWNWARD A BIT TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...BUT STILL RETAINED SLIGHT CHANCE WORDING IN
THE NORTHERN VALLEYS AND CHANCE IN THE MOUNTAINS.

CYCLONIC FLOW WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION INTO THURSDAY WITH
TEMPERATURES REMAINING RELATIVELY COOL AREAWIDE...HOWEVER PRECIP
CHANCES APPEAR TO REMAIN MINIMAL DURING THIS TIMEFRAME.

&&

.LONG TERM (AFTER 00Z FRIDAY)...MODEL DIVERGENCE IS LARGER THAN
TYPICAL THROUGH THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST...WITH
RELATIVELY LARGE DISCREPANCIES NOTED BETWEEN THE 00Z GFS AND 00Z EC.
GFS ENSEMBLE 500 MB HEIGHT STANDARD DEVIATIONS ARE LARGE OVER UTAH
FROM 00Z FRIDAY THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...INDICATING DISPERSION OF THE
MEMBERS AS TO WHETHER THE TROUGH WILL HANG FURTHER WEST LIKE THE
OPERATIONAL GFS OR MORE PROGRESSIVE...REMINISCENT OF THE 00Z EC.

THAT SAID...SHORTWAVE RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE WAKE OF
THE TROUGH. DEPENDING ON HOW QUICKLY THE TROUGH DEPARTS THE
AREA...RIDGING SHOULD ALLOW FOR A WARM DAY FRIDAY BUT THE EC WOULD
FAVOR A WARMER HIGH THAN THE GFS.

ANOTHER WEAKENING TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY. GIVEN THE MODEL TO MODEL INCONSISTENCIES MENTIONED
ABOVE...DID NOT LEAN TOWARD A PARTICULAR MODEL. ADJUSTED POPS A BIT
CLOSER TO CLIMO GIVEN UNCERTAINTY AND THE DISTURBANCES MOVING
THROUGH THE AREA. BOTH MODELS INDICATE THE POSSIBILITY OF A RATHER
LARGE STORM SOMETIME DURING THE WEEK OF THE 20TH. WHILE TOO FAR OUT
TO HAVE ANY REAL CONFIDENCE...SOMETHING TO WATCH OVER THE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...VARIABLE WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED AT THE SLC TERMINAL
THROUGH 12-13Z. WINDS WILL LIKELY SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST EARLIER
THAN NORMAL...BETWEEN 16-18Z. THERE IS A 30 PERCENT CHANCE THESE
WINDS WILL SHIFT EVEN EARLIER...POSSIBLY AS EARLY AS 15Z.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SEAMAN/KRUSE

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)



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