Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Salt Lake City, UT

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000
FXUS65 KSLC 231031
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
431 AM MDT MON MAR 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL UTAH
TODAY. A SECOND SYSTEM WILL CROSS MAINLY NORTHERN UTAH AND
SOUTHWEST WYOMING TUESDAY. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL RETURN
FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (THRU 00Z THU)...A LOW AMPLITUDE TROF IS MOVING INTO
THE GREAT BASIN EARLY THIS MORNING AND IS FORECAST TO CROSS THE
CWA DURING THE DAY. THIS WAVE SENDS A COLD FRONT THRU NRN/CENTRAL
UT TODAY PASSING SLC AROUND MID MORNING WITH A BAND OF PRECIP
ACROSS THE NORTH. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THE MOST WIDESPREAD
PRECIP WILL BE STARTING WITH THE FRONT AND LINGERING INTO THE
AFTN THEN TURNING MORE OROGRAPHIC AND SHOWERY.

SNOW TOTALS IN THE MTNS SHOULD BE MOSTLY 6 INCHES OR LESS THROUGH
THIS EVENING AND EXPECT LITTLE IMPACT ON TRAVEL AS MOST OF THIS
FALLS DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS AND ROAD SURFACES ARE STARTING
FAIRLY WARM.

A SECOND SHORT WAVE SENDS A WARM FRONT THRU NRN UT TUE MORNING
THEN A COLD FRONT THRU THE ENTIRE CWA TUE NIGHT. PRECIP WITH THE
WARM FRONT WILL BE LIMITED TO AREAS MAINLY NORTH OF ABOUT I-80 AND
ANY SUPPORT FOR SHOWERS ALONG THE COLD FRONT QUICKLY WANES ONCE IT
REACHES CENTRAL UT. A LITTLE SNOW COULD REACH DOWN TO THE BENCHES
IN SALT LAKE AND DAVIS COUNTIES EARLY TUE AS WELL AS THE CACHE
VALLEY BUT EXPECT NO ACCUMULATION. THE MTNS WILL PICK UP SEVERAL
MORE INCHES BUT WITH LITTLE IMPACT ANYWHERE SOUTH OF ABOUT LOGAN
SUMMIT AND NOT MUCH EVEN THERE.

A FEW SHOWERS COULD LINGER OVER THE NORTH WED WITH A COOL DRY
NORTHERLY FLOW FORECAST FOR THE REST OF THE CWA. LOCAL GUSTY
WINDS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE USUAL DOWNSLOPE AREAS BUT SPEEDS WILL
STAY SUB ADVISORY.

&&

.LONG TERM (AFTER 00Z THURSDAY)...HIGH PRESSURE IS PROGGED TO MOVE
BACK IN STRONGLY BEHIND THE EXITING TROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/EARLY
THURSDAY WHICH SHOULD BRING AN END TO ANY LINGERING SHOWERS ACROSS
NORTHERN UTAH. THE STRENGTHENING RIDGE WILL ALLOW FOR A QUICK
WARMING TREND FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK WITH MAXES ONCE AGAIN
CLIMBING TO AT LEAST 15F ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS FOR THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND.

GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A STORM SYSTEM OFF THE CALIFORNIA
COAST IMPACTING THE STATE EARLY NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER...EC/GFS DISAGREE
ON THE DETAILS AND RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY REMAINS QUITE POOR. LATEST
GFS IS MORE FAVORABLE FOR PRECIPITATION...BRINGING THE SYSTEM
DIRECTLY ACROSS THE STATE SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY AS THE CLOSED LOW
BECOMES AN OPEN WAVE. EC IS A BIT SLOWER WITH THE SYSTEM AND TRACKS
IT ACROSS SOUTHERN ARIZONA AS AN OPEN WAVE. REGARDLESS...HAVE ADDED
SOME POPS IN FOR DAY 7 AS ALL GUIDANCE FOR THAT PERIOD INDICATES AT
LEAST SOME INSTABILITY.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE DAY AT THE SLC
TERMINAL. SOUTHEAST WINDS SHOULD PREVAIL BEFORE A SHIFT TO NORTHWEST
BETWEEN 13Z AND 15Z WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT.
HOWEVER...SHOWERS IN THE VICINITY OF THE TERMINAL WILL RESULT IN
PERIODS OF GUSTY AND/OR ERRATIC WINDS. CIGS AT OR BELOW 6000 FT AGL
ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AFTER ABOUT 12Z AS COVERAGE OF SHOWERS
INCREASES. THERE IS A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR
CIGS IN HEAVIER SHOWERS...PRIMARILY ALONG AND JUST BEHIND THE FRONT.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...WILENSKY
LONG TERM/AVIATION...TRAPHAGAN

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)


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