Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Salt Lake City, UT

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000
FXUS65 KSLC 071019
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
419 AM MDT MON JUL 7 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT FEATURE
ACROSS THE INTERIOR WEST THIS WEEK. MOISTURE POOLED ACROSS
SOUTHERN UTAH AND ARIZONA WILL RETURN NORTH BEGINNING LATE
TUESDAY...AND SPREAD ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA FOR THE
LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (UNTIL 06Z FRIDAY)...THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING
FROM THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES THEN NORTHWEST INTO OREGON TODAY WILL
GRADUALLY GAIN A NORTH-TO-SOUTH ORIENTATION THROUGH THE FOUR-
CORNERS REGION BY MIDWEEK. DEEP LAYER MOISTURE ALONG THE SOUTHWEST
FLANK OF THE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE DESERT SOUTHWEST THROUGH
SOUTHWEST UTAH AND ACROSS NEVADA. WILL LIKELY SEE CONVECTION FIRE
UP AGAIN WITHIN THE MOISTURE PLUME THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.
ANY WEAK SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED IN THE MOISTURE PLUME WILL ENHANCE
CONVECTION...LEADING TO THE POSSIBILITY OF HEAVY RAIN IN SLOW-
MOVING CONVECTION AGAIN TODAY. THE BEST CHANCE FOR HEAVY RAIN WILL
AGAIN EXIST ALONG THE AXIS OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE ACROSS THE
EXTREME SOUTHWEST PORTION OF THE STATE.

SUFFICIENT MOISTURE WILL EXIST TO THE IMMEDIATE NORTHEAST OF THE
RIDGE AXIS TO SUPPORT ISOLATED AFTERNOON/EVENING CONVECTION
THROUGH MAINLY THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE STATE. ACROSS NORTHERN
THROUGH EAST-CENTRAL UTAH THE DRIER AIR IN PLACE WILL SEVERELY
LIMITED THE POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTIVE PRECIP AGAIN TODAY.

THE RETURN OF THE UPPER RIDGE TO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION MIDWEEK
WILL SERVE TO TAP THE RATHER MOIST AIRMASS POOLED ACROSS ARIZONA
THROUGH NORTHWEST MEXICO. THE INITIAL RETURN FLOW COULD DEVELOP
AS EARLY AS TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH A FAIRLY DEEP AND MOIST SOUTHERLY
FLOW IN PLACE ACROSS UTAH BY LATE IN THE WEEK. THE VARIOUS MODEL
GUIDANCE ALL INDICATE THE PRESENCES OF WEAK SHORTWAVES LIFTING
NORTH THROUGH THE REGION ONCE THE MOISTURE IS FIRMLY IN PLACE.
DYNAMIC LIFT WORKING ON THIS MOISTURE ALONG WITH THE FAIRLY WEAK
MEAN LAYER FLOW SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN WILL EXIST
ACROSS MAINLY SOUTHERN AND WESTERN UTAH.

&&

.LONG TERM (AFTER 06Z FRIDAY)...A TYPICAL JULY PATTERN WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST. BOTH THE 00Z EC AND
THE 00Z GFS FEATURE A SUBSTANTIAL MOISTURE SURGE ACROSS ALL BUT THE
NORTHWESTERN PORTION OF THE CWA BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. PW
VALUES ARE FORECAST TO RANGE BETWEEN 0.80 AND 1.25 INCHES ACROSS
MUCH OF THE STATE. ALTHOUGH FORCING WILL BE WEAK...EXPECT SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA FRIDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING.

A TROUGH MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA WILL HELP TO SHIFT THE RIDGE
AXIS WESTWARD...RESULTING IN A DRYING TREND ACROSS NORTHERN AND
WESTERN UTAH SATURDAY. THIS WILL KEEP PRECIPITATION CONFINED TO THE
HIGHER TERRAIN AND EASTERN VALLEYS. THE DRIER CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN
IN PLACE THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH LITTLE AGREEMENT ON ANOTHER MONSOONAL
PUSH UNTIL EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...DEEP MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS SOUTHERN
UTAH THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THESE AREAS THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE THREAT OF
HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY/ERRATIC WINDS. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH TUESDAY.

MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD FURTHER NORTH...REACHING MUCH OF THE
REST OF THE DISTRICT WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. HEAVY RAINFALL AND
GUSTY WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS WITH THESE STORMS. A DRYING
TREND IS EXPECTED NEXT WEEKEND...BUT WINDS LOOK TO REMAIN LIGHT
UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.AVIATION...LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE AT THE KSLC
TERMINAL THROUGH THE MORNING...SHIFTING TO THE NORTH TO NORTHWEST
BETWEEN 17Z AND 18Z. THERE IS LITTLE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
IMPACTING THE TERMINAL THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CONGER
LONG TERM/AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER...KRUSE

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)



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