Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Salt Lake City, UT

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

000
FXUS65 KSLC 241044
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
444 AM MDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A COOL AND MOIST NORTHWEST FLOW WILL RESIDE ACROSS
THE REGION TODAY...FOLLOWED BRIEFLY BY AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
TUESDAY. THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM TO IMPACT THE GREAT BASIN WILL
SLOWLY CROSS THE REGION DURING THE MIDWEEK PERIOD.


&&

.SHORT TERM...AN UPPER LOW SPINNING ACROSS WESTERN CO EARLY THIS
MORNING WILL CONTINUE A SLOW NORTHEASTWARD DRIFT TODAY THROUGH
TONIGHT AS IT SLOWLY WEAKENS AND EVOLVES INTO AN OPEN WAVE. IN
ITS WAKE A RELATIVELY COOL...MOIST AND UNSTABLE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. IN THE ABSENCE OF ANY
DISCERNIBLE SHORTWAVE FEATURES TO FOCUS ORGANIZED
PRECIPITATION...IT APPEARS DIURNALLY DRIVEN TERRAIN BASED
CONVECTION WILL BE THE PRIMARY PRECIPITATION PROCESS TODAY...WITH
CELLS DRIFTING INTO THE ADJACENT VALLEYS AT TIMES. AS SUCH HAVE
MAINTAINED CHANCE POPS ACROSS MOST VALLEYS WITH HIGHER POPS ACROSS
THE MOUNTAINS.

A SIMILAR SETUP IS EXPECTED FOR MEMORIAL DAY...ALTHOUGH WITH
SHORTWAVE RIDGING EXPECTED TO AMPLIFY AS THE DAY PROGRESSES
ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE MAY RESULT IN LESS CONVECTIVE COVERAGE
MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. IN ADDITION...AS THE UPPER LOW
TRANSLATES EASTWARD AWAY FROM THE REGION A GRADUAL WARMING TREND
IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE EARLY PORTION OF THE WEEK.

BY TUESDAY THIS PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO HAVE
SHIFTED EAST INTO THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL ROCKIES...ALLOWING A
CYCLONIC SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT TO OVERSPREAD THE EASTERN GREAT
BASIN...ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LOW DROPPING INTO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST. THIS COUPLED WITH MOISTURE REMAINING IN PLACE SHOULD
BRING A BETTER CHANCE FOR ORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY EVENING.

.LONG TERM (AFTER 12Z WEDNESDAY)...THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TROUGH
IS PROGGED TO CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DIG SOUTH ON WEDNESDAY BEFORE
MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN UTAH DURING THE DAY THURSDAY. THIS TRACK IS
A BIT FARTHER SOUTH THAN MODELS WERE ADVERTISING YESTERDAY...SO
HAVE BUMPED POPS A BIT AND INCLUDED CENTRAL UTAH MORE EXTENSIVELY.
A BIT OF COOLER AIR SHOULD FOLLOW WITH THE SYSTEM EARLY
THURSDAY...SO HAVE INDICATED A SLIGHT COOLING TREND FOR MAXES OVER
NORTHERN UTAH.

BEHIND THE TROUGH...GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE HIGH PRESSURE FINALLY
MOVING BACK IN. THE SYSTEM EXITS MUCH MORE QUICKLY IN THE EC
SOLUTION COMPARED TO THE GFS...SHOWING DRIER AIR SPREADING IN BY
FRIDAY. GFS KEEPS SOME LINGERING SHORTWAVE ENERGY OVER MOSTLY
NORTHERN UTAH THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY...SO HAVE KEPT
SOME TOKEN POPS IN. ALL MODELS INDICATE THE WARMING AND DRYING
TREND COMMENCING BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON...SO HAVE REMOVED POPS
AFTER THAT POINT. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB QUICKLY FOR
THE LATTER HALF OF THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AS THE RIDGE BUILDS.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE DAY AT THE
SLC TERMINAL. CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE 6000 FT AGL...BUT
THERE IS A 20 PERCENT CHANCE THEY COULD DROP TO OR BELOW THAT VALUE
AT TIMES THIS AFTERNOON IN SHOWERS. SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST BETWEEN 17Z AND 19Z...BUT SHOWERS IN THE
VICINITY OF THE TERMINAL MAY CAUSE PERIODS OF GUSTY AND/OR ERRATIC
WINDS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SEAMAN/TRAPHAGAN

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.