Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Salt Lake City, UT

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

971
FXUS65 KSLC 012319
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
419 PM MST MON FEB 1 2016

.SYNOPSIS...A VIGOROUS UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE MOVING AWAY FROM
THE AREA TONIGHT. A COLD NORTHERLY FLOW WILL FOLLOW THIS SYSTEM
TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM (THRU 00Z THU)...A DEEP VIGOROUS UPPER LOW HAS
SHIFTED EAST TO SOUTH CENTRAL CO THIS AFTN AND CONTINUES TRACKING
RAPIDLY EAST. SNOW HAS BEEN TAPERING OFF ACROSS THE CWA BUT EXPECT
IT TO PERSIST OVER AND UPSTREAM OF THE MTNS INTO THIS EVENING AS
WELL AS ACROSS WY.

NORTH WINDS HAVE RAMPED UP THIS AFTN ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA WITH
THE STRONGEST WINDS ACROSS THE SRN MTNS. ALTHO THE SURFACE
GRADIENT IS NWLY THE WINDS ALOFT ARE VERY NORTHERLY AND AS A
RESULT DO NOT EXPECT A HIGH WIND EVENT ALONG HIGHWAY 10 THRU
CARBON AND EMERY COUNTIES...ALTHO GUSTY WINDS WILL OCCUR. IT
APPEARS THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL FAVOR THE DOWNSLOPE AREAS ACROSS
WASHINGTON AND KANE COUNTIES BUT THEY SHOULD STILL STAY GENERALLY
SUB ADVISORY. HAVE LEFT WINTER WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS UP FOR THE MTNS
AND W-CENTRAL AND SWRN UT VALLEYS DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF WIND
AND RESIDUAL SNOW SHOWERS. LEFT WY IN EFFECT AS WELL DUE TO SNOW
AS THE WINDS HAVE DROPPED OFF THERE. CANCELED THE ERN VALLEYS AND
ALLOWED THE WASATCH MTN VALLEYS TO EXPIRE AS THE THREAT OF ANY
ADDITIONAL FALLING SNOW IN THESE AREAS IS SMALL.

EXPECT SOME RESIDUAL SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE TERRAIN TUE BUT THATS
ABOUT IT AS A SURFACE HIGH BUILDS IN AND INVERSION CONDITIONS
RETURN TO THE NWRN VALLEYS INTO MID WEEK.

.MID TERM (00Z THURSDAY-12Z SATURDAY)...MODEL GUIDANCE IS
CONSISTENT ON A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ENTERING THE INTERMOUNTAIN
WEST WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE TROUGH WILL ELONGATE AND CUT-OFF OVER
UTAH ON THURSDAY...BRINGING LIGHT TO MODERATE PRECIP FROM THURSDAY
MORNING TROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. WITH TEMPS BELOW -8 AT 700 MB
THE PRECIP WILL FALL AS SNOW EVERYWHERE BUT THE LOW ELEVATIONS OF
WASHINGTON AND KANE COUNTIES. THE CUT-OFF LOW WILL SAG TO THE
SOUTHEAST FRIDAY WITH RIDGING BUILDING OVER THE AREA SATURDAY.

.LONG TERM (AFTER 12Z SATURDAY)...AN UPPER RIDGE SHOULD REMAIN
OVER THE FORECAST AREA FOR MUCH OF SATURDAY...THOUGH WINDS AND
MIXING COULD INCREASE A BIT ACROSS THE FAR NORTH SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AS THE NEXT WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE
NORTH. MOST MODEL RUNS HAVE JUST HAD THIS WAVE BRUSHING THE FAR
NORTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT THERE ARE OCCASIONAL SOLUTIONS LIKE THE 18Z GFS
THAT BRING A MORE DIRECT HIT INTO NORTHERN UTAH.

THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO AT THE MOMENT IS THAT SOME LOW LEVEL COLD
AIR MOVES INTO THE AREA...BUT LIGHT SHOWERS GENERALLY REMAIN
CONFINED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN AS THE BEST INSTABILITY STAYS OFF
TO THE EAST. FOR NOW...HAVE KEPT POPS FAIRLY LOW. ALSO COOLED
TEMPERATURES A BIT DUE TO THE REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD
AIR...PARTICULARLY ON MONDAY MORNING...WITH SKIES LOOKING TO CLEAR
AS THE TROUGH BEGINS TO EXIT THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...THERE IS A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS
AT THE SLC TERMINAL DUE TO LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS BETWEEN 23Z
AND 04Z...WITH SHOWERS GENERALLY DISSIPATING THROUGH THE NIGHT.
ANY ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATION SHOULD BE LESS THAN HALF AN INCH.
CEILINGS WILL LIKELY REMAIN NEAR OR BELOW 7000FT THROUGH AT LEAST
06Z. THERE IS ALSO A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF REDUCED VISIBILITIES DUE
TO PATCHY FOG AFTER 10Z.

&&

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR
     UTZ008>010.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 11 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR UTZ015-016-
     517-518.

WY...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 AM MST TUESDAY FOR WYZ021.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...WILENSKY
MID TERM...JEGLUM
LONG TERM/AVIATION...SCHOENING

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.