Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Salt Lake City, UT

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000
FXUS65 KSLC 131027
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
427 AM MDT SAT SEP 13 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL SHIFT EAST ACROSS THE GREAT
BASIN THIS WEEKEND...THEN STRENGTHEN EARLY NEXT WEEK. MOISTURE
WILL RETURN TO UTAH FROM THE SOUTH LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (UNTIL 18Z WEDNESDAY)...THE AXIS OF THE LOW AMPLITUDE
RIDGE CURRENTLY TO THE WEST OF UTAH WILL SHIFT EAST INTO THE STATE
LATE IN THE WEEKEND. FROM THERE THE RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY OVER THE
INTERIOR WEST EARLY IN THE UPCOMING WEEK...BRINGING ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPS TO THE ENTIRE FORECAST BY MIDWEEK.

THE FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE MOISTURE POOL ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO THROUGH
SOUTHERN ARIZONA WILL REMAIN PINNED WELL TO THE SOUTH OF UTAH BY
THE FLAT RIDGE OVER THE REGION. GOES PWAT IMAGERY DOES SHOW MOISTURE
NEAR THE UTAH/ARIZONA BORDER EARLY THIS MORNING. SOME OF THIS
MOISTURE WILL DRIFT NORTH THIS AFTERNOON. DIFFERENTIAL HEATING
WILL GENERATE CUMULUS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN DURING THE
AFTERNOON WITH A FEW SHOWERS OR EVEN A THUNDERSTORM POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. LOOKING AT SIMILAR THREAT
SUNDAY...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF CONVECTIVE PRECIP REACHING INTO
THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS.

THE STRENGTHENING OF THE UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE INTERIOR WEST
SHOULD SUPPRESS MOST CONVECTIVE PRECIP EARLY IN THE WEEK.
MOISTURE POOLED ACROSS SOUTHERN ARIZONA WILL BEGIN TO WORK NORTH
ALONG THE WEST SIDE OF THE RIDGE THROUGH NEVADA AND EXTREME
SOUTHWEST UTAH BY MIDWEEK. THE BEST CHANCE AT CONVECTIVE PRECIP
WILL LIKELY HOLD OFF UNTIL THE END OF THE WEEK.

TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB BACK TO READINGS ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS THE
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. HAVE LOWERED TO
TEMPS A BIT TODAY AS MIXING IS NOT ALL THAT GREAT AND THE NEAR
700MB TEMPS ARE ONLY 2-3 DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY. MAY SEE A
LITTLE BETTER MIXING SUNDAY WITH READING GETTING BACK TO OR A
LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL STATEWIDE.

THE BUILDING HEIGHTS EARLY IN THE WEEK WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO
CONTINUE TO CLIMB THROUGH MIDWEEK. STABLE CONDITIONS UNDER THE
HIGH ALONG WITH THE MID-SEPTEMBER SUN ANGLE SHOULD KEEP WARMING
IN CHECK DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK...THOUGH READINGS WILL
BE ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A DRY NORTHWEST FLOW WILL REMAIN OVER THE FIRE
DISTRICT INTO SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA MONDAY
AND TUESDAY BUT THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT INCREASE IN MID LEVEL
MOISTURE AS EARLY AS SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL BRING A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF CONVECTION OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN FROM SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY. THE RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL REMAIN LOW IN THE UPPER TEENS IN
MOST VALLEYS THROUGH TUESDAY BUT THIS WILL CHANGE AS MOISTURE
INCREASES FROM THE SOUTH BEGINNING LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
CONFIDENCE IN THE TRACK OF TROPICAL STORM/HURRICANE ODILE MOVING UP
THE BAJA COAST. CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING WITH DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE
EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO UTAH THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. WETTING RAINS ARE
LIKELY OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND THE AT LEAST THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
CWA FROM THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM (AFTER 18Z WEDNESDAY)...CONFIDENCE IN A DEEP MOISTURE
SURGE INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND THE EASTERN GREAT BASIN
CONTINUES TO INCREASE AS MOST COMPUTER MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH
THE TRACK OF TROPICAL STORM/HURRICANE ODILE MOVING UP THE BAJA
COAST. DEEP MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS STORM ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE
UP THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER BASIN AND INTO THE EASTERN GREAT BASIN
THURSDAY AS A TROUGH FROM THE WEST INTERACTS WITH IT. THE EC IS
FASTER AND DEEPER WITH THE TROUGH COMPARED TO THE GFS ENSEMBLE AND
OPERATIONAL FORECAST BUT THE OVERALL SENSIBLE WEATHER SHOULD BE
ABOUT THE SAME WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
MOVING ACROSS THE CWA THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. HAVE BOOSTED POPS BIG
TIME FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY AS GFS SHOWS WIDE AREA OF
NEGATIVE LIFTED INDICES AND PWAT GREATER THAN 1.00 INCH.

&&

.AVIATION...NO WEATHER CONCERNS FOR THE SLC TERMINAL THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM SOUTHEAST TO NORTHWEST ABOUT 20Z THIS
AFTERNOON AND THEN BACK TO SOUTHEAST ABOUT 03-04Z TONIGHT.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

CONGER/STRUTHWOLF

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)



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