Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Salt Lake City, UT

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968
FXUS65 KSLC 241033
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
433 AM MDT SUN APR 24 2016

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY MOVE OVER THE AREA TODAY.
THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM WILL START TO MOVE INTO THE GREAT BASIN
TONIGHT AND MOVE SLOWLY EAST THROUGH TUESDAY. YET ANOTHER STORM
SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE AREA TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (THRU 12Z WEDNESDAY)...THE UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO
TRACK EAST AND IS NOW CENTERED OVER ERN WY AS OF EARLY THIS
MORNING. THE WRAP AROUND PRECIP THAT KEPT RAIN FALLING ALONG THE
WASATCH FRONT AND ACROSS THE NRN CWA OVERNIGHT IS FINALLY BREAKING
UP AND EXPECT ANY LINGERING PRECIP TO END BY MID MORNING.

THE UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE RIDGE AXIS CROSSES THE CWA AROUND MIDDAY
WITH FLOW BACKING AROUND TO SWLY THIS AFTN AS THE NEXT PAC TROF
MOVES ASHORE. CLOUDS WILL BE INCREASING THIS AFTN AS THIS TROF
ENTERS THE GREAT BASIN AND CLOSES OFF OVER SRN NV BY 12Z MON.

MODELS DEVELOP SOME CONVECTIVE PRECIP OVER THE CWA AFTER MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT BECOMING GRADUALLY MORE WIDESPREAD ON MON AS THE NEWLY
FORMED CLOSED LOW TRACKS INTO SRN UT. THE LOW IS FORECAST TO BE
POORLY ORGANIZED SO PRECIP WILL LIKELY STAY MORE SCATTERED IN
NATURE THRU MON. WE DO GET INTO A WRAP AROUND ENVIRONMENT ACROSS
WRN UT MON NIGHT AS THE LOW CENTER SHIFTS INTO ERN UT AND THIS
SHOULD BRING SOMEWHAT MORE ORGANIZED PRECIP TO THE WRN CWA
OVERNIGHT LINGERING WELL INTO TUE. SOME OF THIS APPEARS TO LINGER
ACROSS THE NORTH INTO TUE NIGHT.

THE AIRMASS WITH THE LOW IS COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW TO MIX IN DOWN TO
WRN VALLEY FLOORS TUE MORNING BUT THIS SHOULD HAVE LITTLE IMPACT.
MOST MTN ACCUMULATION SHOULD REMAIN SUB ADVISORY AND EVEN IN AREAS
THAT REACH ADVISORY AMOUNTS THE IMPACT ON MTN ROUTES WILL BE
NEGLIGIBLE.

.LONG TERM (AFTER 12Z WEDNESDAY)...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IS PROGGED TO
MOVE IN BRIEFLY BEHIND THE EXITING STORM SYSTEM DURING THE DAY
WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...LINGERING MOISTURE WILL KEEP A FEW SHOWERS
GOING OVER THE FORECAST AREA. THE RIDGE WILL BRING A WARMING TREND
IN TEMPERATURES...WITH MAXES EXPECTED TO RISE TO NEAR SEASONAL NORMS.

THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM TO IMPACT THE AREA IS EXPECTED TO DROP SOUTH
ALONG THE CALIFORNIA COAST WEDNESDAY BEFORE TRACKING EASTWARD
BEGINNING WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY. 00Z MODEL GUIDANCE COMING INTO A
BIT BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING AND TRACK OF THE
STORM...INDICATING THE CENTER OF THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE ALONG THE
UT/AZ BORDER THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THIS WILL SPREAD MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY BACK OVER THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA...THOUGH SOUTHERN
UTAH WILL SEE THE BEST COVERAGE OF SHOWERS. THE SYSTEM DOES NOT LOOK
TO HAVE MUCH IN THE WAY OF COOLER AIR WITH IT...SO SNOW LEVELS WILL
REMAIN QUITE HIGH.

THE MAIN SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO EXIT THE AREA BY EARLY SATURDAY.
EC/GFS BOTH SHOW A SECOND TRAILING WAVE MOVING ACROSS ARIZONA BUT
THE EC IS MUCH SLOWER IN BRINGING IT THROUGH COMPARED TO THE GFS.
THOUGH THE BEST INSTABILITY WILL BE WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA...THE
PASSAGE OF THIS SYSTEM WILL ALLOW FOR UNSETTLED WEATHER TO REMAIN
OVER THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH DAY 7 WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...THE SLC TERMINAL WILL SEE VFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE
DAY. CIGS NEAR 6000 FT AGL ARE EXPECTED TO RISE ABOVE THAT VALUE BY
13Z. SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST BETWEEN
17Z AND 19Z.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...WILENSKY
LONG TERM/AVIATION...TRAPHAGAN

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)



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