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000
FXUS65 KSLC 022321
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
421 PM MST SUN MAR 2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...MOIST WESTERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST ACROSS NORTHERN UTAH
TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY RETURN ON
WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM (THRU 00Z THU)...CONVECTIVE SHOWERS HAVE INCREASED
ACROSS THE NRN CWA THIS AFTN AS DAYTIME HEATING WORKED ON THE
MOIST AND MARGINALLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS IN PLACE. THESE WILL
DIMINISH SOMEWHAT AFTER SUNSET BUT SHOULD INCREASE AGAIN LATER
TONIGHT AS A WEAK PAC SHORT WAVE CROSSES THE REGION.

THIS NEXT WAVE IS FORECAST TO BRING SOME ADDITIONAL MOISTURE INTO
THE CWA TONIGHT WITH THIS MOISTURE LINGERING INTO MON. IT IS
HOWEVER MOVING THROUGH A LARGER SCALE LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGE AND WILL
NOT HAVE MUCH THERMAL STRUCTURE BUT THE MOIST ENVIRONMENT SHOULD
STILL ALLOW THIS FEATURE TO GENERATE FAIRLY WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
ACROSS THE NRN CWA LATE TONIGHT THRU MON MORNING.

EXPECT SNOW LEVELS TO REMAIN IN THE 5500-6500 FT RANGE WITH NOT
ENOUGH ACCUMULATION IN THE MTNS TO WARRANT A WINTER WEATHER
HIGHLIGHT.

EXPECT PARTIAL CLEARING AND SOLAR HEATING TO KICK OFF ANOTHER
ROUND OF SCATTERED CONVECTIVE SHOWERS MON AFTN ACROSS THE NRN CWA
BEHIND THIS WEAK WAVE AND THIS THREAT SHOULD CONTINUE ACROSS THE
NORTH INTO THE EVE.

THE NEXT MORE ORGANIZED WAVE ARRIVES LATE MON NIGHT AND BRINGS
FAIRLY WIDESPREAD PRECIP BACK TO ABOUT THE NRN 1/3 OF THE CWA THRU
MIDDAY TUE TAPERING OFF TUE AFTN AND ENDING TUE EVE. ALTHO THIS
SYSTEM IS STILL RELATIVELY WEAK...IT IS FORECAST TO BE VERY MOIST
AND THIS COULD BRING SUFFICIENT SNOWFALL TO THE NRN MTNS TO
WARRANT A WINTER WEATHER HIGHLIGHT.

THE UPSTREAM RIDGE IS AMPLIFYING WHILE THIS WAVE CROSSES THE CWA
AND IS PART OF THE REASON FOR ITS BETTER STRUCTURE BUT IT STILL
DOES NOT HAVE VERY COLD AIR WITH IT SO SNOW LEVELS SHOULD STAY
ABOVE THE VALLEY FLOORS.

THIS RIDGE ADVANCES INTO THE GREAT BASIN TUE NIGHT/WED BRINGING A
BREAK IN THE MOIST WESTERLIES...WITH A DRIER DAY EXPECTED. TEMPS
WED MAY NOT WARM TO THEIR FULL POTENTIAL HOWEVER AS CONSIDERABLE
HIGH CLOUDINESS IS FORECAST TO BE SPREADING OVER THE CWA IN
ADVANCE OF THE NEXT UPSTREAM TROF. THE RIDGE SHIFTS E OF THE CWA
BY THU AS THIS NEXT SHORT WAVE TROF MOVES INTO THE WESTERN
STATES.

&&

.LONG TERM (AFTER 00Z THURSDAY)...THE PACIFIC TROUGH WHICH HAS BEEN
EJECTING A SUCCESSION OF WAVES THIS WEEK WILL ITSELF MOVE INLAND
LATE WEDNESDAY EVENING. THIS PROGRESSION WILL FLATTEN THE WEDNESDAY
RIDGE AND INJECT MOISTURE INTO NORTHERN UTAH BY THURSDAY MORNING.
THE GFS MODEL COUPLES THESE DYNAMICS WITH WARM ADVECTION AT 700
MB...PROMOTING THE ONSET OF PRECIPITATION BY NOON IN WHAT OTHERWISE
LOOKS LIKE A WEAK INITIAL FEATURE. THE ECMWF MODEL HESITATES ON
DELIVERING PRECIP UNTIL THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO EVENING. HAVE LEANED
TOWARD THE GFS FOR POP GRID PRECIP...FURTHER INCREASING POPS FOR
AREAS NORTH OF BRIGHAM CITY.

MODELS ARE SHOWING MORE AGREEMENT ABOUT THE TIMING OF THE SURFACE
COLD FRONT...BRINGING INTO THE NORTHWEST CORNER OF THE STATE AROUND
FRIDAY 00Z. MOUNTAIN SHOW SHOWERS WILL LIKELY LINGER INTO
FRIDAY. WITH THE COLDEST AIR NOT ARRIVING UNTIL AFTER THE BULK OF
THE PRECIP HAS OCCURRED...MOST VALLEY LOCATIONS WILL EXPERIENCE
RAIN WITH POTENTIAL RAIN-SNOW MIX LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY
MORNING.

A RIDGE QUICKLY BUILDS OVER THE REGION FOR THE WEEKEND...BRINGING
TEMPS INTO THE 60S FOR MUCH OF THE WASATCH FRONT BY SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AT THE
SLC TERMINAL THROUGH THE NIGHT. HOWEVER THERE IS A 30 PERCENT
CHANCE THAT THE WINDS COULD SWITCH TO NORTHERLY THROUGH ABOUT 02Z.
CIGS WILL REMAIN 7K FT AGL OR HIGHER THROUGH 07Z.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...WILENSKY
LONG TERM/AVIATION...VERZELLA/STRUTHWOLF

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)