361
FXUS65 KSLC 270947
AFDSLC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Salt Lake City UT
347 AM MDT Fri Jun 27 2025

.SYNOPSIS...Hot and dry conditions are expected to continue
through at least the weekend, with the potential for a moisture
surge arriving next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM (Through 12Z/6AM Sunday)...Temperatures will remain
elevated around 5-10 degrees above normal through the weekend with
very little change in the upper-level pattern. Weak moisture
moving into the state along a fleeting boundary on Saturday could
result in a few isolated showers over northern Utah Saturday
afternoon, especially given slightly cyclonic flow over the
region. Aside from that, expect largely hot and dry conditions to
continue through at least the weekend statewide.

.LONG TERM (After 12Z/6AM Sunday)...On Sunday a ridge of high
pressure will remain flexed over the local area as a trough churns
off the California Pacific coast. Strong positive H7 temperature
anomalies will in turn drive warm high temperatures, generally
running around 5-10F above climatological normal. The subsident
effects of the ridge should help preclude widespread precipitation,
but limited quantities of moisture trapped beneath the ridge in
combination with daytime heating should be sufficient for a few
terrain initiated showers/thunderstorms. Highest chances appear to
be in the vicinity of the Uinta Mountains.

Temperatures nudge upward slightly and peak on Monday as the ridge
strengthens a bit over the Four Corners region and the approaching
trough helps to introduce a bit more deep layer southerly flow.
Numbers have dipped slightly from prior forecasts, but it still
appears portions of the Wasatch Front could flirt with the 100F
mark, and lower elevations across southern Utah (lower Washington
County, lower Zion NP, Glen Canyon NRA, etc.) will sit in the 100-
110F range. While at the moment this doesn`t push HeatRisk to
headline levels, those spending time outdoors should still practice
typical heat related precautions such as wearing light colored loose
fitting clothing, taking breaks when possible to help stay cool, and
keeping well hydrated. With the slightly enhanced southerly flow,
moisture also increases slightly and as such will see slightly
better precipitation chances, though once again largely focused
along/adjacent to high terrain.

Moving onward through the week the trough continues to very slowly
translate eastward through the Great Basin. The nearby ridge will
still help lead to warm daytime temperatures, but the combination of
the circulation around the ridge in addition to the trough will
yield a favorable southerly tap for the introduction of more
monsoonal type moisture into the region. As such, will see
precipitation chances increase further. Activity will still largely
be initiated off of high terrain and drift into adjacent lower
elevations, especially in southern Utah where there is more
favorable odds of stronger moisture quantities. Any stronger
thunderstorms would likely be capable of periods of heavy rain,
posing a threat to rain sensitive areas such as burn scars, slot
canyons, typically dry washes, and slickrock areas. The loose model
consensus still supports a similar pattern being maintained into the
4th of July, and while it is far too early to tell just how
strong/widespread activity may become, it remains a forecast worth
keeping an eye on given associated recreation and festivities with
the holiday.

&&

.AVIATION...KSLC...Another fairly benign TAF period expected.
Conditions to remain VFR with a mix of primarily limited mid/high
level cloud cover. Winds largely expected to remain less than 15 kts
through the day. Typical directional changes anticipated with SSE
becoming NW ~19-21Z Fri, and back to SSE ~02-04Z thereafter.

.REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING...Minimal large scale pattern
changes, thus another largely quiet TAF period expected. Some
mid/high level clouds at area terminals, but majority should
maintain VFR conditions. Noted exceptions are those near fires, such
as BCE, which could see some smoke settle down low overnight and
yield periodic IFR to LIFR conditions until daytime heating/winds
help mix out the smoke. Winds will also once again have modest
sustained magnitudes/gusts and generally exhibit a typical diurnal
directional pattern.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Warm and very dry conditions will continue through
at least Monday ahead of a pattern change. This afternoon,
slightly enhanced winds across southeastern Utah will result in
elevated to isolated near-critical fire weather conditions where
fuels are critical, with wind gusts to 20-25 mph at best.
Otherwise, winds should remain relatively light through the
weekend. Weak moisture will start to filter into northern Utah
from the northwest on Saturday, resulting in a slight increasing
trend in min/max RH, though many areas will still experience
critical RH during the afternoons.

Monsoonal moisture will likely move into Utah mid next week,
though more detailed timing uncertainties still remain. As a
whole, this moisture surge looks to be more of a dry microburst
threat (gusty and erratic outflow winds and little precipitation)
rather than a widespread rainfall threat, though locally wetting
rains can`t be ruled out. RH is likely to improve in most
scenarios, especially overnight recoveries, but there is still
that question of the magnitude of improvement.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...None.
WY...None.
&&

$$

Cunningham/Warthen

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