Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Salt Lake City, UT

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FXUS65 KSLC 240232
AFDSLC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Salt Lake City UT
832 PM MDT SAT JUL 23 2016

.SYNOPSIS...Strengthening high pressure aloft across the region
beginning tomorrow will lead to very warm and generally dry
conditions across Utah next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Water vapor loop shows a positively tilted trough over northern
Rockies, and a ridge off the southern California coast. MDCARS wind
observations show a 60-90kt cyclonic jet from Washington into Nevada
then northeast into the upper plains. GOES/HRRR/00Z KSLC RAOB
indicate the precipitable water value ranges from 0.15"-0.25"
northern and central mountains to 0.60"-0.90" southern and eastern
valleys.

Convection looks to hold on for several more hours near the frontal
zone given the late summer sunset. Kept a few showers in near the
Green River in case activity lasts beyond midnight as some high
resolution models suggest.

Otherwise a beautiful summer evening aside from any wildfire smoke.
Expect overnight lows will be a couple degrees cooler than this
morning due to the cooler daytime highs and drying.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
Drier westerlies have spread across the CWA this afternoon in the
wake of the trof passing to our north. Precipitable water imagery
shows the moisture has been shunted east with just some lingering
along the southern and eastern fringes of the CWA. Even with the
drying, isolated convection did manage to develop over the
southern mountains and over the Book Cliffs but cells are small
and do not appear to have much rain with them.

Somewhat cooler air has spread into the north and temps are
running about 5-10 degrees below yesterday while the south sees
little change.

A new trof is forecast to develop along the west coast tomorrow
and the flow over UT backs around to swly but stays light. This
swly flow persists thru Mon and starts to bring a little moisture
back into the south but sufficient moisture for an increase in
convection looks to hold off until Mon.

Temps start to warm back up across the north Sun as the high
centered to our southeast starts to expand nwd. Temps warm more on
Mon with readings reaching 100 again for portions of the Wasatch
Front.

The headline for next week continues to be another extended
streak of above-normal min and max temperatures, with most days
reaching triple digits along portions of the Wasatch Front. The
primary driver will be a strengthening ridge over the Great Basin
and southwestern U.S., with 700mb temperatures reaching +16C to
+20C over much of the region. Dry west to northwesterly flow
around the northern edge of the ridge will dominate all but the
southernmost CWA throughout the week, resulting in clear skies and
dry conditions to go with the warm weather.

Global models begin to diverge later in the week as subtle
differences in the orientation of an upper-level ridge over the
Southwest will impact the forecast. The GFS brings in substantially
higher PWATs and a period of enhanced cloud cover and PoPs Friday
and Saturday, whereas the EC relegates this action farther southwest
with limited effects on the CWA.

&&

.AVIATION...North winds will prevail at the KSLC terminal 04z,
with winds becoming light and variable for the overnight period. Smoke
from the Antelope Island fire could occasionally drift past the
airfield, but visibilities are expected to remain greater than 6
statute miles.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A drier westerly flow has spread across the fire
district today and only isolated small buildups are expected over
the southern and eastern mountains through this evening. The drier
airmass remains in place on Sunday with just a few afternoon
buildups expected again over the southern mountains. Moisture
increases a little across the south Monday with a little better
chance of afternoon thunderstorms over the southern mountains and a
few buildups possible farther north...while hot temperatures return
to the northern valleys. The moisture remains over the south and
east Tuesday while it stays hot and dry northwest.

&&

.SLC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
UT...None.
WY...None.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...Rogowski/Wilensky/Rutz
AVIATION...Rogowski
FIRE WEATHER...Wilensky

For more information from NOAA`s National Weather Service visit...
http://weather.gov/saltlakecity

For frequently asked questions about the Area Forecast Discussion
visit...
http://weather.gov/saltlakecity/general/afd_faqs.php



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