Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Salt Lake City, UT

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FXUS65 KSLC 141729

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Salt Lake City UT
1029 AM MST Tue Feb 14 2017

.SYNOPSIS...High pressure aloft will expand across the interior
west midweek, resulting in dry and stable conditions. An active
weather pattern is expected to redevelop late in the week, and
persist through the upcoming weekend.


.DISCUSSION...Mid level ridging continues to expand over the area
this morning allowing a dry northeasterly flow to remain
in place, this on the downstream side of the axis. This ridge
axis will gradually shift overhead over the next 48 hours
retaining a stable and dry environment, while allowing for a net
warming trend of temps.

Weak valley inversions in place will remain within this regime,
though the combination of lack of snowpack in many valleys and the
increasing solar angle will preclude much strengthening. Have
noted modest mixing in the lower 1kft each afternoon, and don`t
expect trends to change much if at all through tomorrow.

The ridge axis will shift east Wednesday-Thursday allowing flow
aloft to back more southwesterly in orientation while
strengthening WAA aloft. Expecting Thursday to be the warmest day
of the week as deeper mixing potential combined with H7 temps
peaking near +2 C should drive afternoon temps some 10-15 degrees
above normal, especially across the north.

Current forecast handles the near term well. No need to update.

Primary forecast problem this shift focuses on the mid/latter
periods as a progressive pattern will once again become
established across the western CONUS.


.AVIATION...Operational weather concerns will remain minimal at the
KSLC terminal through the valid TAF period. Light southerly winds
are expected to return after 09Z, but there is a 40 percent chance
that winds will remain northerly through the night and into





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