Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Salt Lake City, UT

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000
FXUS65 KSLC 170516
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
1016 PM MST SUN NOV 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ALONG THE WEST COAST WILL
SHIFT EAST INTO THE GREAT BASIN BY MIDWEEK. A SERIES OF WEAKENING
WEATHER DISTURBANCES WILL THEN MOVE EAST ACROSS THE REGION LATE
IN THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SHARP UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ALONG THE WEST COAST WITH A DEEP
TROUGH POSITIONED OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN U.S.  BETWEEN
THESE TWO FEATURES UTAH IS SITUATED UNDER COLD NORTHERLY FLOW.
NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTED SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS SOUTHWEST
UTAH GRADUALLY RELAXING THIS EVENING. IN ADDITION...COLD
ADVECTION DECREASING ACROSS FAR SOUTHWEST UTAH AS NORTH WINDS
DECREASE. IN RESPONSE TO THESE TRENDS NORTHEASTERLY CANYON WINDS
HAVE BEEN DECREASING ACROSS UTAHS DIXIE SINCE MIDDAY AND HIGH WIND
WARNING WAS ALLOWED TO EXPIRE THIS EVENING. MAY STILL SEE SOME
GUSTS TO AROUND 40 MPH NEAR CANYON MOUTHS INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT
HOURS.

VERY COLD AIRMASS REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING
WITH 700 HPA TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM AROUND -3C IN SOUTHWEST
UTAH TO -12C OVER SOUTHWEST WYOMING. WITH CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT
RADIATIVE COOLING WILL BE SIGNIFICANT. THIS WILL BE ESPECIALLY
APPARENT IN PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST UTAH WHERE SOME SNOW COVER
REMAINS. OVER THIS AREA...EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO DROP TO AROUND 0
DEGREES F...INCLUDING THE CEDAR CITY AREA. TEMPERATURES IN UTAHS
DIXIE ARE EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE MID-UPPER 20S AND A HARD
FREEZE WARNING IS IN EFFECT THERE THROUGH MID-MORNING MORNING.
ALONG THE WASATCH FRONT...WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS
TO AROUND 15F.

MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW RIDGING OVER THE EASTERN GREAT BASIN
THROUGH MID-WEEK BEFORE A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES IMPACT UTAH LATE IN
THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. ECMWF AND GFS ARE IN AGREEMENT
THAT NEXT SHOT FOR MORE SUBSTANTIAL PRECIPITATION WILL ASSOCIATED
WITH A SYSTEM EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE STATE NEXT WEEKEND.

CURRENT GRIDS IN GOOD SHAPE AND ONLY MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO
OVERNIGHT LOWS. PRIMARY CHANGE WAS TO DROP MINIMUM TEMPERATURES
OVER UTAHS EASTERN VALLEYS A LITTLE BIT BASED ON EVENING TRENDS.


&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT THE KSLC TERMINAL
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD UNDER CLEAR SKIES. LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST BETWEEN 1800 UTC AND 2000
UTC.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...HARD FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 10 AM MST MONDAY FOR UTZ019.

WY...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...GRAHAM
AVIATION...

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)



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