Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Salt Lake City, UT

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

000
FXUS65 KSLC 232303
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
403 PM MST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION BY MIDWEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY)...DEEP...MOIST NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. OCCASIONAL SNOW
SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS OF NORTHERN UTAH...BUT
ANOTHER PERIOD OF SNOW IS EXPECTED LATER TONIGHT INTO MONDAY AS
ANOTHER WAVE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.

THIS SHORTWAVE WILL DIG SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN
INTERMOUNTAIN REGION TONIGHT. WARM AIR ADVECTION COLOCATED WITH A
170KT+ JET STREAK WILL HELP TO REDEVELOP SNOW ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS OF NORTHERN UTAH TONIGHT. SNOW WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE ADJACENT VALLEYS OF NORTHERN UTAH...IN PARTICULAR THE
CACHE VALLEY. THERE IS SOME CONCERN THIS SNOW WILL FALL DURING THE
MORNING COMMUTE ACROSS THE CACHE...LESS CONCERN THIS SNOW WILL
IMPACT THE COMMUTE FOR THE WASATCH FRONT. ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY FOR THE CACHE VALLEY TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. IT
SHOULD BE NOTED IN LOCATIONS ALONG THE WASATCH FRONT THAT RECEIVE
HIGHER INTENSITY SNOW...ROADS MAY BRIEFLY BECOME SLUSHY FOR A
TIME DURING THE MONDAY MORNING COMMUTE.

STRONG WINDS AND ACCUMULATING SNOW ARE ALSO EXPECTED FOR UINTA
COUNTY WYOMING...WITH 700MB WINDS REACHING 50KTS FOR AT TIME
TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR
THIS ZONE FOR SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW...WHICH COULD IMPACT TRAVEL
DURING THIS TIME.

AFTER A BRIEF PERIOD OF SHORTWAVE RIDGING...STRONG WARM AIR
ADVECTION WILL OCCUR ACROSS NORTHERN UTAH TUESDAY. MOISTURE WILL
INCREASE TUESDAY MORNING...BRINGING THE THREAT OF PRECIPITATION TO
MANY LOCATIONS OF NORTHERN UTAH...PARTICULARLY THE MOUNTAINS. THE
MIDLEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION IS EXPECTED TO MODIFY 700MB
TEMPERATURES FROM -7C OR SO ACROSS THE WASATCH FRONT EARLY
TUESDAY TO NEAR -2C BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE DEGREE OF
MIDLEVEL WARMING...ANY SNOW IN THE VALLEYS WILL LIKELY MIX WITH OR
CHANGE TO RAIN THROUGH THE DAY.

THE EASTERN PACIFIC RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA
WEDNESDAY...BRINGING AN END TO THIS STORM CYCLE.

&&

.LONG TERM (AFTER 12Z THURSDAY)...THE LARGE RIDGE LOOKS TO
FLATTEN A BIT THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY...BUT SHOWS NO SIGNS OF
SHIFTING FROM ITS POSITION CENTERED OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST...SO
MOSTLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE CWA THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS FLATTENING MAY ALLOW SOME SLIGHTLY
COOLER AIR TO ENTER THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA...WHICH COULD
KEEP TRENDS IN THE DAYTIME HIGHS RELATIVELY FLAT DESPITE
OCCASIONAL BETTER MIXING...WITH INCREASING ZONAL FLOW OVER THE
AREA.

BY SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...THE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EVEN FURTHER
SOUTH...OPENING UP THE REGION TO A SLIGHTLY MORE ACTIVE ZONAL
FLOW. THAT SAID...ANY DEEP MOISTURE IS FORECAST TO STAY NEAR THE
IDAHO BORDER OR NORTHWARD...SO HAVE KEPT ANY MENTIONABLE POPS IN
THE NORTHERN THIRD OF THE CWA. BEYOND DAY 7...MODELS INDICATE THE
PATTERN COULD GET EVEN MORE PROGRESSIVE...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF
A DEEPER TROUGH IMPACTING THE AREA ON MONDAY OR TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...CEILINGS BELOW 7000FT ARE EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP AT THE
SLC TERMINAL BETWEEN 23Z AND 02Z...AND WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH
MUCH OF THE TAF PERIOD. THERE IS A 70 PERCENT CHANCE OF PERIODS OF
IFR SNOW BETWEEN 08Z AND 16Z...WITH SHOWERS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE
SHORTLY AFTER 16Z MONDAY. THE WIND DIRECTION FORECAST IS RELATIVELY
LOW CONFIDENCE...BUT MOST LIKELY SCENARIO AT THE MOMENT IS FOR
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS TO DEVELOP BETWEEN 02Z AND 04Z...WITH
NORTHERLIES RETURNING BETWEEN 13Z AND 17Z MONDAY.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM MST MONDAY FOR UTZ006-010.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 PM MST
     MONDAY FOR UTZ001.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST MONDAY FOR UTZ007>009.

WY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 PM MST
     MONDAY FOR WYZ021.

&&

$$

KRUSE/SCHOENING

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.