Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Salt Lake City, UT

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000
FXUS65 KSLC 160402
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
902 PM MST MON DEC 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A SERIES OF WEAK WEATHER SYSTEMS WILL CROSS THE
REGION TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR
FRIDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THE AXIS OF THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE GREAT BASIN HAS
SHIFTED TO THE ERN UT BORDER THIS EVE AND MOISTURE HAS BEEN
INCREASING ACROSS THE CWA IN THE DEVELOPING SWLY FLOW DOWNSTREAM
FROM THE ERN PAC TROF ALONG THE COAST.

WEAK WARM FRONTAL LIFT HAS PRODUCED A COUPLE NW-SE ORIENTED BANDS
OF RETURNS ON RADAR ACROSS NWRN AND SWRN UT. THE NWRN BAND DROPPED
VIS AT WENDOVER BRIEFLY TO JUST UNDER 2 MILES EARLIER THIS EVE
WHICH WAS LIKELY DUE TO LIGHT SNOW. THE WEAK SRN END OF THIS BAND
IS CROSSING SLC AT THIS TIME BUT PRECIP HAS FAILED TO REACH THE
SURFACE HERE.

THE SRN BAND APPEARS WEAKER AND SEEMS TO JUST BE PRODUCING LOWER
CIGS WITH NO REPORTS OF SNOW YET.

WITH THE SURFACE HIGH OFF TO THE EAST AND THE EASTERLY PRESSURE
GRADIENT EXTENDING WEST TO THE COAST STILL HAVE CONCERNS THAT THIS
IS A FAVORABLE SET UP FOR A LIGHT OVERRUNNING SNOW EVENT LATER
TONIGHT INTO TUE IN THE CASTLE COUNTRY BASINS NEAR PRICE AND IN
THE WESTERN UINTA BASIN NEAR DUCHESNE. THE 18Z NAM WAS QUITE
CLEARLY INDICATING THIS WHILE OTHER MODELS WERE A LITTLE LESS
EXCITED BUT STILL HINTED AT THIS DEVELOPING. WENT AHEAD AND
UPDATED FORECASTS EARLIER TO RAISE POPS CONSIDERABLY IN THESE
AREAS FOR LATE TONIGHT INTO TUE MORNING BUT KEPT SNOW AMOUNTS
LIGHT.

NEW 00Z NAM HAS SHIFTED THE FOCUS A LITTLE NORTH AND EAST AND
SLOWED THE ONSET BUT STILL EXPECT AT LEAST SOME LIGHT SNOW IN
THESE AREAS LATER TONIGHT INTO TUE. THIS MODEL ALSO FILLS PRECIP
IN ACROSS THE NORTH LATER TUE AS THE INITIAL TROF ALONG THE COAST
LIFTS THRU THE NRN GREAT BASIN TUE AFTN/EVE.

THE NEXT PAC TROF STARTS TO SPREAD PRECIP BACK INTO SRN UT LATE
TUE NIGHT THAT INCREASES ACROSS ABOUT THE SRN 2/3 OF THE CWA ON
WED AND LINGERS INTO THU.

EARLIER UPDATE ALSO RAISED POPS IN THE WENDOVER AREA AND ACROSS
THE WRN CWA FOR THIS EVE. NO ADDITIONAL UPDATES PLANNED AT THIS
TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...THE SLC TERMINAL WILL SEE VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
NIGHT WITH CEILINGS PRIMARILY ABOVE 6000 FT AGL...WITH A 30 PERCENT
CHANCE OF CIGS PERIODICALLY DROPPING LOWER. CALM WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO BECOME PREDOMINANTLY SOUTHEAST BETWEEN 04Z-05Z.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

WILENSKY/VERZELLA

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)


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