Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Salt Lake City, UT

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000
FXUS65 KSLC 250431
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
1031 PM MDT MON AUG 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH EARLY
TUESDAY. MOISTURE WILL SPREAD NORTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY
AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE ROTATES ACROSS THE REGION. THIS
MOISTURE SURGE WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE AREA INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AFTERNOON CONVECTION HAS LARGELY DIED OUT THIS
EVENING...WITH A FEW REMNANT CLOUDS MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. EVENING SATELLITE IMAGERY CLEARLY DEPICTS A SHORTWAVE
MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO...NEAR THE ARIZONA BORDER...WITH
AMPLE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH IT ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO AND
ARIZONA. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES NEAR 0.90 INCHES ARE
APPROACHING THE ARIZONA/UTAH BORDER AHEAD OF THIS SHORTWAVE...WITH
VALUES IN EXCESS OF 1.2 INCHES APPROACHING THE MOGOLLON RIM. THIS
DEEP MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH NORTHWARD THROUGH THE NIGHT.

CURRENT FORECAST BEGINS THE THREAT OF PRECIPITATION BY DAWN ACROSS
SOUTHERN UTAH. GIVEN CURRENT TRENDS...THIS MAY BE A BIT ON THE
SLOW SIDE BUT MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH THE TIMING OF THE
SHORTWAVE MOVING OUT OF NORTHERN MEXICO. WILL HOLD OFF ON UPDATING
THE SECOND PERIOD FOR NOW.

UPDATED POPS TO REMOVE ANY MENTION OF PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE EVENING. OTHERWISE...FORECAST IS ON TRACK AND NO
ADDITIONAL UPDATES ARE NEEDED.


PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

A RIDGE REMAINS CENTERED OVER UTAH THIS AFTERNOON. DRIER AIR HAS
SPREAD INTO WESTERN UTAH AND AS A RESULT CONVECTIVE COVERAGE IS
MORE LIMITED TODAY...REMAINING GENERALLY ISOLATED AND MAINLY OVER
THE MOUNTAINS AND IMMEDIATELY ADJACENT AREAS. WITH THE ABSENCE OF
ANY SIGNIFICANT FORCING...THE SHOWERS SHOULD DIMINISH THIS
EVENING.

THE RIDGE AXIS WILL SHIFT EAST TOMORROW...ALLOWING SOUTHERLY FLOW TO
SPREAD MOISTURE IN GREATER ABUNDANCE FROM ARIZONA. IN ADDITION TO
THE MOISTURE...A SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE WILL ROTATE INTO
UTAH...PROVIDING THE FORCING TO RESULT IN MORE WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION OVER THE FORECAST AREA. AFTERNOON CONVECTION TOMORROW
WILL BE TIED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND ALONG THE ARIZONA
BORDER...THEN INCREASE ACROSS SOUTHERN UTAH DURING THE EVENING
HOURS. PRECIPITATION WILL SPREAD INTO NORTHERN UTAH TOMORROW NIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY MORNING IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE TRACK OF SAID
DISTURBANCE. MOISTURE REMAINING IN PLACE WEDNESDAY WILL KEEP WET
WEATHER IN PLACE THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

WHILE SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO BE WIDESPREAD AND LOCALLY HEAVY...THE
NIGHTTIME TIMING OF THE WAVE TRANSITING THE AREA ALONG WITH
SIGNIFICANT CLOUD COVER ACCOMPANYING THE SYSTEM SUGGESTS THAT THE
STRENGTH OF CONVECTIVE CELLS MAY BE LIMITED. AS SUCH...THERE IS NOT
MUCH CONFIDENCE FOR ANY HYDRO HEADLINES AT THIS TIME.

THE CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION WILL BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES TO
MUCH OF THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY AFTER ABOVE NORMAL READINGS TODAY AND
TOMORROW. ALSO...THE SMOKE OVER THE AREA HAS BEEN GRADUALLY CLEARING
THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS AND SHOULD MORE DEFINITIVELY CLEAR OUT
TOMORROW/WEDNESDAY WITH THE SOUTH FLOW AND PRECIPITATION.

A SHORTWAVE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BOUNCE BACK OVER THE AREA THURSDAY
BEHIND THE DEPARTING WAVE...FOLLOWED BY SOUTHWEST FLOW FOR THE
WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND OVER THE AREA WHILE DRIER AIR
GRADUALLY WORKS ITS WAY BACK INTO THE AREA UNDER THIS PATTERN.


&&

.AVIATION...WINDS AT THE SLC TERMINAL ARE EXPECTED TO SWITCH BACK TO
THE SOUTHEAST BETWEEN 03Z AND 05Z. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...THOUGH CLOUD COVER AND CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
OUT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING WAVE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BRING MONSOONAL MOISTURE INTO
THE DISTRICT BEGINNING TUESDAY. CONVECTION WILL BE AIDED BY A
WEATHER DISTURBANCE MOVING NORTHWARD TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.
AREAS OF WETTING RAIN ARE ANTICIPATED WITH THIS INCREASE IN
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY. A DRYING TREND WILL BEGIN THURSDAY AND
LAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS POSSIBLE.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

KRUSE/STRUTHWOLF/CHENG

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)



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