Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Salt Lake City, UT

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000
FXUS65 KSLC 231625
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
1025 AM MDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...MOISTURE WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH TODAY. DRIER AIR
WILL RETURN TO NORTHERN UTAH ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...WHILE THE
MORE MOIST AIRMASS WILL LINGER OVER SOUTHERN AND EASTERN UTAH
HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND.



&&

.DISCUSSION...SOUTHWEST FLOW REMAINS OVER THE FORECAST AREA THIS
MORNING ON THE BACK SIDE OF A RIDGE CENTERED OVER COLORADO. THIS
FLOW IS DRAWING MONSOONAL MOISTURE NORTHWARD. SATELLITE INDICATES
PWS OF 1.0 INCH OR GREATER ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHEAST UTAH AND THIS
WILL CONTINUE NORTHWARD DURING THE DAY. SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH
SOUTHEAST UTAH THIS AFTERNOON LOOKS LESS WELL-DEFINED THAN MODELS
WERE INDICATING YESTERDAY BUT SHOULD STILL HELP WITH CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT. CLOUD COVER IS NOT CURRENTLY WIDESPREAD SO DAYTIME
HEATING SHOULD ALLOW FOR A FAIR AMOUNT OF CONVECTION THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE.

DRY LIGHTNING AND MICROBURST WINDS ARE ALSO A CONCERN...PRIMARILY
ALONG THE MOISTURE GRADIENT CURRENTLY SITTING NE/SW OVER THE
STATE. THESE CONDITIONS COULD CAUSE ELEVATED FIRE DANGER ALONG
AND BEHIND THAT MOISTURE GRADIENT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE WARM
TODAY...PARTICULARLY OVER NORTHERN UTAH WHERE PORTIONS OF THE
WASATCH FRONT WHERE SOME LOCATIONS WILL SEE MAXES IN EXCESS OF
100F.

PACIFIC NORTHWEST TROUGH STILL PROGGED TO PUSH A DRY FRONT INTO
NORTHERN UTAH TOMORROW MORNING. THIS WILL COOL TEMPERATURES TO
NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS OVER THE NORTH AS SOUTHERN UTAH REMAINS
SIMILAR TO TODAY. THE PASSAGE OF THE TROUGH WILL ALSO ACT TO
FLATTEN THE RIDGE AND MOVE THE FLOW ALOFT IN A MORE WESTERLY
DIRECTION...CHANGING THE ORIENTATION OF THE MOISTURE AXIS AND
PUSHING MOISTURE BACK SOUTH THROUGH FRIDAY.

NO UPDATES EXPECTED TO THE FORECAST THIS MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION...THE SLC TERMINAL WILL SEE VFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT
THE DAY WITH SOME INCREASING CLOUDS. SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST LATER THAN USUAL...BETWEEN 20Z AND
22Z...BUT THERE IS A 30 PERCENT CHANCE THIS WILL OCCUR LATER THAN
EXPECTED OR NOT AT ALL.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...THE MAIN FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS TODAY ARE GUSTY
WINDS/LOW RH ACROSS NORTHERN UTAH AND DRY THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL UTAH. MOISTURE HAS INCREASED ACROSS SOUTHERN
UTAH...AND WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY INCREASE NORTHWARD THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. ON THE PERIPHERY OF THE MOISTURE...DRY THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP...AND LIGHTNING MAY CAUSE NEW STARTS WHERE FUELS
ARE CURED. ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN UTAH WHERE THE MOISTURE IS
DEEPEST...STORMS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY WETTING RAIN. WINDS WILL BE
GUSTY AND ERRATIC IN THE VICINITY OF THUNDERSTORMS.

WINDS ACROSS NORTHWESTERN UTAH WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON. GUSTY
WINDS COMBINED WITH LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL RESULT IN HAZARDOUS
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. THESE GUSTY WINDS MAY EXTEND SOUTHWARD INTO
THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF ZONE 492.

A WEAK...DRY FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NORTHERN UTAH TONIGHT AND INTO
CENTRAL UTAH BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON. THIS FRONT WILL COOL
TEMPERATURES BY A FEW DEGREES AND SHIFT WINDS TO THE NORTHWEST. THIS
FRONT WILL PUSH MOISTURE SOUTHWARD...AND SO STORMS TOMORROW
AFTERNOON WILL BE CONFINED TO SOUTHERN UTAH.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD THIS WEEKEND OVER THE STATE...BRINGING A
BRIEF WARMING...DRYING TREND AND GENERALLY DECREASING WINDS.

&&

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 10 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR UTZ488-489-492-
     493-495-496.

     RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 10 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR UTZ478.

WY...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC/AVIATION...TRAPHAGAN
FIRE WEATHER...HOSENFELD

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)



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