Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Salt Lake City, UT

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000
FXUS65 KSLC 221729
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
1029 AM MST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A COLD AND ENERGETIC STORM SYSTEM WILL REACH UTAH BY
LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THIS STORM WILL IMPACT MAINLY NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL UTAH THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A TRAILING WEATHER DISTURBANCE
WILL CROSS UTAH MONDAY.


&&

.DISCUSSION...A MOIST STORM SYSTEM OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST HAS
ALREADY BEGUN TO IMPACT UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING THIS
MORNING...WITH WARM ADVECTION PRECIPITATION SPREADING ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. SOUTHERLY WINDS HAVE ALSO
BEGUN TO INCREASE AHEAD OF THIS STORM...AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO GET
STRONGER AS THE COLD FRONT BEGINS TO ENTER THE AREA.

THIS PRECIP AHEAD OF THE MAIN TROUGH IS JUST THE BEGINNING OF
WHAT LOOKS TO BE AN ENERGETIC STORM CYCLE FOR MUCH OF THE
AREA...WITH ONLY FAR SOUTHERN UTAH LIKELY TO STAY DRY. THE COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE QUICKLY THROUGH NORTHERN UTAH THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH SNOW LEVELS LOWERING FAIRLY QUICKLY...ESPECIALLY
UNDER HEAVIER CONVECTIVE BANDS. UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT LOOKS TO BE
QUITE GOOD FOR PRECIPITATION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. PRECIP
LOOKS TO TAPER OFF THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY...BUT ONE LAST WAVE ON
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY COULD BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW TO THE
NORTH...WITH A 150 KNOT JET DIRECTLY OVERHEAD.

ALL OF THE ONGOING HEADLINES LOOK TO BE ON TRACK. THE ONLY
POTENTIAL CHANGE AT THE MOMENT IS CONSIDERING ADDITIONAL WIND OR
SNOW ADVISORIES FOR THE VALLEYS OF NORTHERN UTAH...BUT DURATION OF
WINDS AND SNOW AMOUNTS CURRENTLY LOOK TO BE LACKING. UPDATED THE
FORECAST EARLIER THIS MORNING TO ADD A MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS TO
THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON...AS THE SPC
CALIBRATED THUNDERSTORM PRODUCT PUTS A 10 PERCENT CHANCE OVER THE
WASATCH FRONT AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. ALSO LOWERED SNOW
LEVELS A BIT THIS AFTERNOON...AND TWEAKED THE TEMPERATURE CURVE TO
SHOW THE COLD FRONTAL PROGRESSION MORE CLEARLY.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL DURING THE DAY AT
THE SLC TERMINAL WITH CIGS AT OR BELOW 6000 FT AGL.
HOWEVER...CONDITIONS WILL OCCASIONALLY DROP INTO THE MVFR RANGE
DURING THE DAY IN RAIN. GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS SHOULD SHIFT TO THE
NORTHWEST BETWEEN 22Z AND 00Z WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. THE
TRANSITION TO SNOW IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR BETWEEN 01Z AND 03Z BUT
THERE IS A 20 PERCENT CHANCE THIS WILL OCCUR LATER THAN EXPECTED.
THE TRANSITION TO SNOW IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN PERIODS OF IFR
CONDITIONS.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM MST MONDAY FOR UTZ006-010.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST MONDAY FOR UTZ007>009.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 2 AM MST SUNDAY FOR
     UTZ005.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 PM MST
     SUNDAY FOR UTZ517.

WY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM MST SUNDAY FOR WYZ021.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...SCHOENING
AVIATION...TRAPHAGAN

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)


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