Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Salt Lake City, UT

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000
FXUS65 KSLC 180351
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
951 PM MDT SUN MAY 17 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A STORM SYSTEM ALONG THE CALIFORNIA COAST THIS
EVENING WILL MOVE INTO UTAH FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND IMPACT THE
STATE LATE MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM WILL
ARRIVE LATE IN THE WEEK AND IMPACT MUCH OF UTAH THROUGH AT LEAST
THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM (THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY)...AXIS OF THE SHORTWAVE RIDGE
CURRENTLY OVER EASTERN UTAH HAS OPENED UP TO WESTERN HALF OF THE
STATE TO SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE UPPER ON THE CALIFORNIA COAST
THIS EVENING. PERSISTENT...BUT GENERALLY ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS...CONTINUE TO POP UP ACROSS MAINLY THE WESTERN
HALF OF THE STATE THIS EVENING. SUSPECT THERE IS A WEAK DYNAMIC
COMPONENT TO THIS CONVECTION BASED ON A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZATION
TO SAID CONVECTION ACROSS NORTHEAST NEVADA. HAVE UPDATED THE
FORECAST TO MAINTAIN A LITTLE MORE CONVECTION THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.

PRECIP SHOULD INCREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE AND INTENSITY FAIRLY
RAPIDLY MONDAY AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER LOW CLOSES IN ON SOUTHWEST
UTAH. WILL LIKELY SEE THE GREATEST ACTIVITY ACROSS SOUTHERN AND
CENTRAL UTAH DURING THE AFTERNOON...THEN ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF
OF THE STATE MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY AS THE UPPER LIFTS SLOWLY
NORTHEAST TOWARDS SOUTHWEST WYOMING. DYNAMIC FORCING WILL LIKELY
WEAKEN TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE UPPER CONTINUES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST
AND A SHORTWAVE RIDGE FOLLOWS FOR EARLY WEDNESDAY. RESIDUAL
MOISTURE A SUFFICIENT DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD GENERATE ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED CONVECTION AGAIN ACROSS MAINLY THE MOUNTAINS AND
WESTERN VALLEYS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

.PREVIOUS LONG TERM (AFTER 06Z THURSDAY)...MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE
IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE COOL AND WET PATTERN OF LATE WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST...AND
POSSIBLY BEYOND. 12Z RUNS FROM BOTH THE GFS AND EC ARE CONSISTENT
IN TRANSLATING YET ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH INTO THE GREAT
BASIN/DESERT SOUTHWEST BEGINNING THURSDAY...AND SLOWLY PROGRESSING
THIS FEATURE EASTWARD THROUGH SATURDAY. AS SUCH HAVE MAINTAINED
POPS WELL ABOVE CLIMO THROUGH SATURDAY WITH TEMPS REMAINING BELOW
NORMAL. A MORE PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN THE WAKE OF THIS
FORMER FEATURE IS FORECAST BY BOTH MODELS TO AFFECT THE FORECAST
AREA TO SOME DEGREE ON SUNDAY...MAINTAINING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
ACROSS THE NORTH.

&&

.AVIATION...ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MOVING SOUTH TO NORTH
ACROSS WESTERN UTAH WILL GENERALLY REMAIN WEST OF THE TERMINAL
OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL TURN TO A LIGHT SOUTHEAST DRAINAGE AROUND
06Z TO 07Z...WITH A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF A SHIFT TO THE WEST
AFTER 09Z DUE TO SHOWERS IN THE AREA. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE ACROSS NORTHERN UTAH BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH IMPACTS POSSIBLE AT THE TERMINAL THROUGH MONDAY
EVENING.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...CONGER
LONG TERM...STRUTHWOLF

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)


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