Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Salt Lake City, UT

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000
FXUS65 KSLC 182126
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
326 PM MDT FRI JUL 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...MOISTURE ACROSS CENTRAL UTAH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
THROUGH SATURDAY...EXPANDING NORTHWARD SUNDAY. DRIER AIR WILL
RETURN TO THE AREA MONDAY.



&&

.DISCUSSION...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS
CENTRAL UTAH THIS AFTERNOON...BUT WITH DRY LOWER LEVELS...EXPECT
THAT PRECIP IS REACHING THE GROUND ONLY UNDER THE STRONGEST
STORMS. THE BIGGEST THREAT FROM THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON IS
GUSTY WINDS...THOUGH FLASH FLOODING IS STILL A POSSIBILITY ACROSS
THE MOST PRONE AREAS. STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED TO THE WEST OF CAPITOL
REEF...BUT AT THIS TIME ESTIMATED PRECIP AMOUNTS ARE LOW.
HOWEVER...THE CAPITOL REEF AND SEELEY AREA WILL NEED TO BE
MONITORED CLOSELY INTO THE EVENING. SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT ACROSS CENTRAL UTAH OVERNIGHT...THOUGH COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY WILL DECREASE MARKEDLY. STORMS HAVE ALSO DEVELOPED
ACROSS NORTHEASTERN NEVADA...AND MAY MAKE THEIR WAY INTO EXTREME
NORTHWESTERN UTAH. HOWEVER...EXPECT THAT AS THESE STORMS ENCOUNTER
THE DRIER AIR IN NORTHWESTERN UTAH THEY WILL QUICKLY DISSIPATE.
THE HRRR AND RAP SUPPORT THIS IDEA...SHOWING MOST OF THE STORM
ACTIVITY IN NORTHEASTERN NEVADA REMAINING CONFINED TO THE
NEVADA/UTAH BORDER IN NORTHWEST UTAH.

CONVECTION WILL INCREASE AGAIN TOMORROW AFTERNOON...WITH THE
GREATEST COVERAGE ACROSS CENTRAL UTAH...THOUGH WITH MOISTURE
INCREASING SLIGHTLY TO THE NORTH...STORMS WILL SPREAD FURTHER NORTH
TOMORROW THAN THOSE TODAY. THE BEST COVERAGE WILL COME ON SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AS SOUTHERLY FLOW PUSHES MOISTURE NORTHWARD. THIS
INCREASE IN MOISTURE...COMBINED WITH A DISTURBANCE THAT WILL MOVE
INTO SOUTHWEST UTAH IN THE MORNING AND TRACK NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH
THE DAY...WILL RESULT IN MUCH MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION. SUNDAY
IS EXPECTED TO BE THE MOST ACTIVE DAY THIS WEEKEND.

DRIER AIR WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHWEST UTAH MONDAY AND CONTINUE
NORTHWARD TUESDAY...BRINGING A SHARP DECREASE IN THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY. MODELS SUGGEST THAT MOISTURE WILL RETURN BRIEFLY LATE
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...THOUGH ANOTHER DISTURBANCE BRUSHING BY
NORTHERN UTAH WILL SEND DRY AIR INTO THE FORECAST AREA LATE NEXT
WEEK.

AS FAR AS AIR QUALITY...SOME IMPROVEMENT MAY OCCUR SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AS WINDS BECOME MORE WESTERLY. HOWEVER...SUSPECT THAT
REAL IMPROVEMENT IN AIR QUALITY WILL OCCUR LATE SATURDAY/EARLY
SUNDAY AS SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW BRINGS IN CLEANER AIR. ADDED A
MENTION OF AREAS OF SMOKE TO THE WX GRIDS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE
SMOKEY SKIES.

&&

.AVIATION...NORTH TO NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE AT THE SLC
TERMINAL THROUGH 02-04Z. ANY CEILINGS WILL REMAIN NEAR OR ABOVE
10FT. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP ACROSS THE WEST DESERT. THESE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY
IMPACT THE TERMINAL THIS EVENING...WITH A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF GUSTY
AND ERRATIC WINDS BETWEEN 22-03Z.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...NOT OVERLY ACTIVE YET THIS AFTERNOON BUT A ZONE OF
CONVERGENT MOISTURE OVER CENTRAL UTAH HAS SPARKED A FEW STORMS OVER
THE LAST FEW HOURS. EXPECTING SEVERAL MORE STORMS WILL FORM IN THIS
AREA INTO THIS EVENING...AND POSSIBLY ALONG THE UT/NV BORDER IN ZONE
478 WHERE GREATER POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR THE STORMS TO BE DRY...BUT
COVERAGE SHOULD REMAIN ISOLATED. VERY SIMILAR CONDITIONS WILL EXIST
ON SATURDAY WITH FOCUSED STORM ACTIVITY ACROSS CENTRAL UTAH...AGAIN
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED IN NATURE.

A WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL TRACK SOUTH TO NORTH ACROSS THE
DISTRICT COME SUNDAY. AREAL COVERAGE OF STORMS WILL INCREASE TO
SCATTERED COVERAGE BY THE AFTERNOON ACROSS MOST ALL AREAS...AND A
SLIGHT POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A FEW DRY STORMS ACROSS THE WESTERN
DESERT AREAS. COINCIDENT WITH THIS FEATURE...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
APPROACH AND POSSIBLY EXCEED CRITICAL LEVELS ACROSS THE WEST BUT AT
THIS TIME RH LOOKS MARGINAL DUE TO INCREASED LOW/MID MOISTURE LEVELS.

A NET DRYING TREND IS EXPECTED BEHIND THIS FEATURE BEGINNING SUNDAY
NIGHT AND CONTINUING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...HOSENFELD
FIRE WEATHER...MERRILL
AVIATION...KRUSE

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)



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