Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Salt Lake City, UT

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000
FXUS65 KSLC 061553
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
953 AM MDT SUN JUL 6 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL REMAIN LOCKED IN ACROSS THE
INTERIOR WEST THIS WEEK. MOISTURE ACROSS SOUTHERN UTAH AND ARIZONA
WILL RETURN NORTH ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA DURING THE
MIDDLE AND LATTER PORTIONS OF THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK.


&&

.DISCUSSION...HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE AREA THIS MORNING
WITH THE AXIS PLACED NE TO SW ACROSS UTAH. THE AXIS IS ACTING AS A
ROUGH BOUNDARY FOR MOISTURE...WITH PWS IN EXCESS OF 1.0 INCH OVER
SOUTHERN UTAH AS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL UTAH REMAIN MUCH DRIER...PWS
MORE IN THE 0.5 TO 0.6 INCH RANGE. LACK OF MOISTURE WILL KEEP
THINGS RELATIVELY QUIET OVER THE NORTH...WITH JUST A FEW STORMS
POSSIBLE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. HOWEVER...SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MORE SCATTERED IN NATURE OVER SOUTHERN UTAH
WHERE THE DEEP MOISTURE EXISTS. FLOW IS AGAIN LIMITED TODAY SO
CELLS WILL LIKELY BE MOVING LITTLE.

THE PASSAGE OF A PACIFIC WAVE WELL NORTH OF THE AREA WILL CAUSE
THE RIDGE TO FLATTEN AND MOVE ITS AXIS OVER THE PACIFIC COAST ON
MONDAY. THIS WILL CAUSE MOISTURE TO RETREAT SOUTHWARD JUST A BIT.
GUIDANCE THIS MORNING INDICATES LESS OF A SOUTHWARD DRIFT OF
MOISTURE THAN PREVIOUS RUNS...PARTICULARLY OVER WESTERN UTAH. BY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON...THE RIDGE AXIS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE BACK OVER
THE FORECAST AREA ALLOWING DEEP MOISTURE TO SPREAD BACK NORTHWARD
FOR THE MIDDLE AND LATTER PART OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

NO UPDATES EXPECTED TO THE FORECAST THIS MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION...THE SLC TERMINAL WILL SEE VFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT
THE DAY WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST BETWEEN 17Z AND 19Z.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SEPARATE THE MONSOONAL
MOISTURE ACROSS THE SOUTH AND A DRIER MORE STABLE AIRMASS TO THE
NORTH INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL BE UNIFORM
ACROSS THE STATE OR BECOME WARMER ACROSS THE NORTH THAN THE SOUTH.
NO SIGNIFICANT AREAS OF LOW RH AND GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
AT LEAST MID WEEK.

DEEP LAYER MOISTURE HAS ADVANCED NORTH TO ABOUT INTERSTATE 70.
EXPECT MOST ACTIVE CONVECTION SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70 FOR THE REST OF
TODAY...WITH THE SPINE OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST UTAH MOUNTAINS
SEEING MORE ISOLATED ACTIVITY THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. RH VALUES
WILL RESPOND BY INCREASING ACROSS THE SOUTH ALONG WITH MORE
EXPANSIVE CLOUD COVER...WHERE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE. ISOLATED TO REMOTE DRY CONVECTION POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST VALLEYS. THE RIDGE POSITION LOOKS TO REMAIN FAIRLY STEADY
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...MAINTAINING SIMILAR WEATHER THROUGH ABOUT
TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY.

THE RIDGE LOOKS TO REFORM NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS DURING THE SECOND
HALF OF NEXT WEEK. THIS SHOULD ALLOW AN INFLUX OF DEEPER MOISTURE
NORTHWARD. ACROSS THE NORTH...TEMPERATURES WILL COOL WITH RISING
HUMIDITY. CLOUD COVER SHOULD BECOME MORE EXPANSIVE WITH A GREATER
CHANCE FOR A WETTING RAIN/LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS THE NORTH
DURING THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC/AVIATION...TRAPHAGAN
FIRE WEATHER...ROGOWSKI

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)


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