Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Salt Lake City, UT

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000
FXUS65 KSLC 241602
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
1002 AM MDT WED SEP 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA THROUGH LATE
WEEK. A PATTERN CHANGE IS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND AS A FALL LIKE
PACIFIC SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE EASTERN GREAT BASIN.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN EXISTS ACROSS THE
WESTERN CONUS/EASTERN PACIFIC THIS MORNING. INTERIOR RIDGE WITH
AXIS OVERHEAD CONTINUES TO SHOW SIGNS OF AMPLIFICATION TO THE
NORTH AND EAST WITH HIGH CENTER SHIFTING OVER SOUTHERN UTAH AT
THIS TIME. UPSTREAM A DEEP CLOSED LOW OFF THE BRITCOL COASTLINE
CONTINUES TO DIG SOUTH ALONG THE COAST...AND COME THIS WEEKEND
WILL BRING A SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO SENSIBLE WEATHER ACROSS THE
EASTERN GREAT BASIN STATES.

WITH AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE AMPLIFICATION AND EASTWARD SHIFT TO
AXIS TODAY H7 TEMPS WILL CLIMB MARKEDLY PEAKING OUT IN THE +13 TO
+14 RANGE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TOMORROW. TEMPERATURES AS SUCH
WILL REACH UNSEASONABLY WARM LEVELS BOTH DAYS WITH TOMORROW LIKELY
BEING A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER AS SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AIDS
FULL MIXING AND POTENTIAL FOR SUPER ADIABATIC LAPSE RATES AT THE
SURFACE. FORECAST OF 10 TO 15 DEGREES OR MORE ABOVE CLIMO BOTH
TODAY AND TOMORROW REMAINS ON TRACK...WITH NEAR 90 HIGHS AREAS
ACROSS THE WASATCH FRONT AND MID 90S PLUS IN DIXIE.

NO UPDATES MADE OR PLANNED IN THE SHORT TERM.

DUE TO THE AMPLIFIED PATTERN IN PLACE ALL EJECTING SHORT WAVE
ENERGY FROM THE PACIFIC TROUGH WILL TRACK WELL NORTH AND WEST OF
THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY...THOUGH A PROLONGED MOISTURE TAP WITHIN
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL AID TO INCREASE PWAT AREAWIDE COME
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. VALUES OF .8 TO .9 INCHES ARE NOTED AT THAT
TIME. BUFR SOUNDINGS INDICATE MODERATE INSTABILITY AND SUFFICIENT
SHEAR FOR A THREAT OF CONVECTION ACROSS NORTHERN UTAH AND THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAIN SPINE...POTENTIALLY WITH SOME
ORGANIZATION...FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVE. MAY INCREASE POPS SOME
FOR THESE AREAS IN THE AFTERNOON PACKAGE.

ONSET TIMING OF STEADIER AND MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIP STILL REMAINS
A TOUGH CALL...BUT GLOBAL MODELS DO PEG STEADY PRECIP MOST ALL
AREAS BY LATE SATURDAY MORNING. AWAITING FULL SUITE OF 12Z
GUIDANCE TO SEE IF TIMING/PLACEMENT ISSUES WITHIN ECMWF/GFS
CONTINUE A TREND TOWARDS THE FASTER SOLUTION OF THE GFS OR VICE
VERSA.

&&

.AVIATION...VERY WARM TEMPERATURES AT THE KSLC TERMINAL TODAY ARE
EXPECTED TO ALLOW FOR A NORMAL NORTHWESTERLY WIND SWITCH BETWEEN
18-20Z THIS AFTERNOON. OUTSIDE OF THIS OPERATIONAL WEATHER
CONCERNS AT THE TERMINAL WILL REMAIN MINIMAL. CLEAR SKIES AND VFR
CONDITIONS WILL BE MAINTAINED THROUGH THE VALID TAF PERIOD.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

MERRILL


FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)



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