Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Salt Lake City, UT

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000
FXUS65 KSLC 171023
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
423 AM MDT FRI OCT 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN
REGION THROUGH TODAY. A WEAK STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING SOME
MOISTURE INTO SOUTHERN UTAH LATE TODAY THROUGH THIS WEEKEND.


&&

.DISCUSSION...MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS REMAIN OVER UTAH AND
SOUTHWEST WYOMING THIS MORNING...AS A STABLE AND MILD ZONAL FLOW
HAS ESTABLISHED ITSELF OVER THE GREAT BASIN. A RIDGE WILL CONTINUE
TO BUILD OVER THE AREA THROUGH TODAY...THEN SHIFT EASTWARD THROUGH
TONIGHT. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO WARMER THAN SEASONAL TEMPERATURES
ACROSS THE AREA...AND DRY CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF THE CWA.

ONE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION TO THIS DRY AIRMASS IS IN SOUTHERN
UTAH...WHERE A SMALL PACIFIC LOW IS EXPECTED TO PUSH ADDITIONAL
MOISTURE INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH. MODELS ARE PRODUCING SOME
LIGHT PRECIPITATION ALONG THE UTAH/ARIZONA BORDER THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING...SO HAVE INCLUDED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST
FOR THIS BORDER REGION BEGINNING THIS AFTERNOON. THIS AREA OF
MENTIONABLE POPS SLOWLY GROWS INTO THE CENTRAL THIRD OF UTAH
TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...AS THE MOISTURE FIELD PUSHES NORTHWARD. IN
GENERAL...SYNOPTIC-SCALE FORCING WITH THIS WAVE IS FAIRLY
WEAK...SO HAVE KEPT POPS IN THE 20-30 PERCENT RANGE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AS THE MOISTURE LINGERS. THIS MOISTURE EVENTUALLY GETS
SHOVED EASTWARD SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT AS A LARGER PACIFIC
TROUGH PUSHES INLAND.

MONDAY MAY BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...WITH
INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF THE NEXT PACIFIC TROUGH
AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. THIS TROUGH IS PROGGED TO IMPACT THE AREA
ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...THOUGH THE DETAILS REMAIN
UNCERTAIN...AS MODEL RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY IS POOR. IT APPEARS
LIKELY THAT THE SYSTEM WILL BE SPLITTING AND/OR WEAKENING AS IT
MOVES THROUGH THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST...THOUGH THERE LOOKS TO BE
ENOUGH ASSOCIATED MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY TO KICK OFF SOME SHOWER
ACTIVITY. IN ADDITION TO THE WEAKENING NATURE OF THE
STORM...ANOTHER CONCERN IS THAT THE BEST MOISTURE WILL LIKELY BE
EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA...SO THE MOST WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION
COULD REMAIN IN FAR EASTERN UTAH OR IN COLORADO. IN GENERAL...HAVE
MADE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FOR THIS STORM...WHICH
CALLS FOR ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS MUCH OF THE
CWA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. HAVE ALSO KEPT A GOOD COOLING TREND
FOR WEDNESDAY...AS A SURFACE COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE
AREA...THOUGH LATEST MODEL RUNS ARE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN THE
SOLUTIONS LAST NIGHT.

MODELS ARE STILL IN GOOD AGREEMENT ABOUT PUSHING THE TROUGH OUT OF
THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE
REGION THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. WITH GOOD CONSISTENCY IN THIS
SOLUTION...THE BASIC WEATHER THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY HAS HIGHER
CONFIDENCE THAN TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY...AND THE MOSTLY WARM AND DRY
OCTOBER LOOKS TO CONTINUE INTO THE FINAL WEEK OF THE MONTH.

&&

.AVIATION...LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL PREVAIL AT THE SLC
TERMINAL THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS...ALTHOUGH THE DOMINANT DIRECTION
WILL MOST LIKELY BE SOUTHEASTERLY. NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
RETURN BEGINNING 19 OR 20Z. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
UNDER HIGH CLOUDS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE FIRE DISTRICT
THIS MORNING. THIS WILL QUICKLY SHIFT EAST WITH A TRANSITION TO
A LIGHT SOUTHWEST FLOW BY THIS EVENING. THIS SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL
DRAW A WEAK DISTURBANCE INTO THE AREA WHICH WILL BE ACCOMPANIED
BY A BIT OF MOISTURE AND A SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTHERN
UTAH LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY. OTHERWISE...WEAK FLOW
WILL DOMINATE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND WITH LINGERING
MOISTURE ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FIRE DISTRICT.

SOUTHWEST FLOW LOOKS TO START PICKING UP A BIT ON MONDAY AHEAD
OF THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM WHICH WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT INTO THE
AREA. THIS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A CHANCE OF SHOWERS WITH SNOW
LEVELS NEAR THE 10000FT LEVEL TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...SCHOENING
FIRE WEATHER/AVIATION...CHENG

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)


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