Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Salt Lake City, UT

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000
FXUS65 KSLC 112153
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
353 PM MDT FRI APR 11 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A MILD WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
TONIGHT. A WEAK SYSTEM WILL CROSS THE REGION SATURDAY. A COLD
UPPER TROUGH WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY.



&&

.SHORT TERM (THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY)...TODAY HAS BEEN ANOTHER WARM
AND DRY SPRING DAY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...WITH INCREASING HIGH
CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF UTAH. THIS CLOUD COVER IS
OUT AHEAD OF A PACIFIC LOW THAT IS CURRENTLY OVER THE SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA COAST. AS THE LOW TRACKS ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...IT WILL HELP DRAW ADDITIONAL MID-LEVEL
MOISTURE INTO THE REGION.

THIS ADDITIONAL MOISTURE SHOULD HELP INITIATE SOME SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW...THOUGH DYNAMIC
FORCING REMAINS FAIRLY WEAK. SATURDAY SHOULD ALSO BE A FEW DEGREES
COOLER THAN TODAY ACROSS THE CWA...BOTH DUE TO INCREASED CLOUD
COVER AS WELL AS SOME WEAK COLD ADVECTION IN THE NORTHERN THIRD OF
THE AREA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

A STRONGER AND BETTER PUT-TOGETHER STORM SYSTEM WILL DROP INTO THE
AREA LATE SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. THIS WILL BRING A CONSIDERABLY
COLDER AIRMASS INTO UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING...ESPECIALLY
COMPARED TO MOST OF THE SPRING SO FAR. THIS WILL PRIMARILY PRODUCE
MOUNTAIN SNOWFALL AND VALLEY RAIN...THOUGH THERE IS A CHANCE
SNOW LEVELS COULD BRIEFLY DROP TO THE VALLEY FLOORS OF NORTHERN
UTAH THE LATTER HALF OF SUNDAY. THAT SAID...ANYTHING MORE THAN A
DUSTING IS UNLIKELY ALONG THE WASATCH FRONT.

SHOWERS AND CLOUD COVER LOOK TO DISSIPATE PRETTY QUICKLY ON SUNDAY
NIGHT...WHICH SHOULD LEAD TO A FAIRLY COLD NIGHT. SHORTWAVE
RIDGING BUILDS AGAIN FOR MONDAY...WITH A MODEST WARM-UP TO BEGIN
THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.LONG RANGE (AFTER 00Z TUESDAY)...SHORT WAVE RIDGING WILL SHIFT
RAPIDLY EAST AND FLATTEN TUESDAY AS A NEAR WESTERLY FLOW PUNCHES
INTO THE WESTERN CONUS FOR THE MIDWEEK PERIOD. RUN TO RUN
CONSISTENCY IN THIS PATTERN EVOLUTION HAS BEEN WIDELY SPREAD WITHIN
THE GFS FOR THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS AND GEFS MEMBERS REMAIN
SO...THOUGH THE 12Z OPERATIONAL HAS BECOME QUITE CONSISTENT WITH THE
COINCIDENT EUROPEAN. ALTHOUGH THE FLOW WILL REMAIN PROGRESSIVE...THE
ONLY SHORT WAVE OF NOTE TO AFFECT THE AREA IS ADVERTISED TO SLIDE
THROUGH MAINLY NORTHERN UTAH TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY BRINGING SOME
PRECIP AND A WEAK COLD FRONT. NOTHING SUBSTANTIAL. UPSTREAM FLOW
RESPONSE BECOMES ANTICYCLONIC WITH SUBTLE RIDGING AND STOUT WARM
ADVECTION THEREAFTER FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK. AGAIN...WOULD
LIKE TO SEE MORE CONSISTENCY RUN TO RUN AND MODEL TO MODEL BUT HAVE
TRENDED GRIDS IN THAT MANNER.

&&

.AVIATION...OPERATIONAL WEATHER CONCERNS WILL REMAIN MINIMAL AT THE
KSLC TERMINAL THROUGH THE VALID TAF PERIOD. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH 03-04Z BEFORE RETURNING TO THE SOUTHEAST.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SCHOENING
LONG TERM/AVIATION...MERRILL

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)



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