Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Salt Lake City, UT

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000
FXUS65 KSLC 250521
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
1021 PM MST SAT JAN 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE WESTERN
STATES SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM
THE SOUTHWEST WILL IMPACT THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THE STRONG UPPER RIDGE CENTERED ALONG THE WEST COAST
WILL SHIFT EAST INTO THE GREAT BASIN FOR SUNDAY. AHEAD OF THE
RIDGE AN AREA OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE HAS SPREAD SOUTH ACROSS
WESTERN/NORTHERN UTAH THIS EVENING. A SOLID AREA OF LOW-LEVEL
CLOUD WILL COVER NORTHERN AND WESTERN UTAH THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY.
HAVE ISSUED AN EARLIER UPDATE TO INCREASE CLOUD COVER AND TO BOOST
OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPS A FEW DEGREES WHERE THIS CLOUD COVER WILL
PERSIST THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.

THE UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE EAST INTO THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN
ROCKIES EARLY IN THE WEEK. THIS SHIFT IN THE RIDGE POSITION WILL
ALLOW THE WELL-DEFINED UPPER LOW CENTERED NEAR CENTRAL BAJA TO
LIFT NORTHEAST AS AN OPEN WAVE THROUGH THE BASIN BY TUESDAY. WHAT
WILL MAKE THIS AN INTERESTING FEATURE IS THE MOISTURE TAP FROM
THE TROPICS. PWAT VALUES ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE WILL RUN
ABOUT 2 TO 3 STANDARD DEVIATION ABOVE NORMAL OVER MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA.

THE FIRST ROUND OF PRECIP WILL ARRIVE WITH THE NOW OPEN WAVE OVER
SOUTHWEST UTAH MONDAY NIGHT. THIS INITIAL PRECIP SHOULD BE FAIRLY
WELL ORGANIZED ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST...THEN BECOME LESS WELL PUT
TOGETHER AS IT LIFT NORTHEAST THROUGH THE STATE. THE MORE ACTIVE
AREA FOR PRECIP WILL LIKELY REMAIN TO WEST ACROSS NEVADA TUESDAY.
BY TUESDAY NIGHT THE TROUGH WILL TAKE A TURN TO THE EAST AND
RIPPLE THROUGH NORTHERN UTAH AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE TUESDAY NIGHT.
THIS WEAK FEATURE WORKING ON A MOIST AND CONDITIONALLY UNSTABLE
AIR MASS SHOULD HAVE LITTLE TROUBLE GENERATE WIDESPREAD VALLEY
RAIN/MOUNTAIN SNOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN THIRD OF UTAH AND
SOUTHWEST WYOMING. MODEL QPFS THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING ARE
GENERALLY SHOWING AN HALF INCH OR LESS LIQUID...THOUGH SUSPECT
THESE NUMBERS ARE LOW BASED ON THE AIR MASS IN PLAY.

&&

.AVIATION...THE EXTENSIVE AREA OF STRATUS ACROSS NORTHWEST UTAH
WILL MAINTAIN CEILINGS NEAR 4000 FEET THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING. THESE CEILING WILL GRADUALLY BREAK UP LATER SUNDAY
MORNING...LEAVING SCATTERED CLOUDS BASED NEAR 5000 FEET. LIGHT
WEST WINDS AT 05Z WILL GRADUALLY COME AROUND TO THE SOUTHEAST
LATE TONIGHT...WITH SPEEDS GENERALLY BELOW 6 KNOTS.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

CONGER

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)



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