Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Salt Lake City, UT

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000
FXUS65 KSLC 261532
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
932 AM MDT SUN JUL 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A DRY SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE
REGION TODAY. A DRY COLD FRONT WILL BRING MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES
TO NORTHERN AND CENTRAL UTAH FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL FOLLOW FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK WITH MOISTURE
POTENTIALLY RETURNING LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS
DEPICT AN AMPLIFYING MID LEVEL TROUGH ALONG THE WEST COAST WITH A
DEEP LAYER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW DOWNSTREAM ACROSS THE GREAT
BASIN/INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. THE AIRMASS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
REMAINS GENERALLY DRY WITH GOES DERIVED PW VALUES RUNNING IN THE
0.25 TO 0.50 INCH RANGE...WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY THE 12Z KSLC
SOUNDING. THE EXCEPTION IS THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN CWA...WHICH IS ON
THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A PLUME OF MOISTURE ADVECTING
NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. LATEST HRRR
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE PRECIP THREAT WILL REMAIN EAST OF THE CO
RIVER...HOWEVER VIS IMAGERY INDICATES MID LEVEL CLOUD SPREADING
FURTHER WEST INTO THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED
TO SEE HIGH BASED CONVECTION DEVELOP AROUND THE HENRY
MOUNTAINS...BOULDER MOUNTAIN...AND PERHAPS POINTS NORTHWARD AS
WELL. CURRENT GRIDS HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THESE AREAS AND
WILL MAINTAIN FOR NOW...BUT WILL MONITOR SATELLITE/RADAR TRENDS
AND UPDATE IF NECESSARY.

AS THE UPSTREAM TROUGH AMPLIFIES ALONG THE COAST...BACKING LOW-MID
LEVEL FLOW WILL HELP INDUCE WARM ADVECTION ACROSS NORTHERN UT AS
THE 700MB THERMAL RIDGE WHICH HAS BEEN SITUATED ACROSS SOUTHERN UT
LIFTS NORTHWARD. THIS WILL RESULT IN A WARMING TREND ACROSS THE
NORTH...AS WELL AS LOCALLY BREEZY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE WESTERN
VALLEYS THIS AFTERNOON.

THE UPSTREAM PACIFIC TROUGH IS FORECAST TO SWING INLAND AND ACROSS
THE GREAT BASIN TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...PUSHING A COLD FRONT
THROUGH NORTHERN AND CENTRAL UT MONDAY MORNING. THE BEST LARGE
SCALE ASCENT AND MOISTURE WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA...BUT CANT RULE OUT ISOLATED SHOWERS ALONG THE ID BORDER
EARLY MONDAY. A MUCH COOLER AIRMASS IN THE WAKE OF THIS FRONT WILL
OVERSPREAD NORTHERN AND CENTRAL UT MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
TUESDAY...KNOCKING TEMPERATURES 10-15 DEGREES BELOW CLIMO. IN
FACT...LOCATIONS ALONG THE WASATCH FRONT MAY WELL REMAIN IN THE
70S THROUGHOUT THE DAY TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT KSLC THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. SOUTH WINDS WILL LIKELY PREVAIL LONGER THAN NORMAL...WITH
A DELAYED WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST EXPECTED AROUND 20Z. THERE
IS A 30 PERCENT CHANCE THIS WIND SHIFT OCCURS AS LATE AS 22Z OR
SO.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A DRY AIRMASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF
THE AREA TODAY...WITH THE EXCEPTION BEING THE FAR
SOUTHEAST...WHICH IS ON THE PERIPHERY OF A MOISTURE SURGE
SPREADING INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. ISOLATED HIGH BASED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE NEAR BOULDER MOUNTAIN AS
WELL AS THE HENRY MOUNTAIN RANGE THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE
STRENGTHENING SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE REGION MAY
RESULT IN LOCALLY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS IN WINDIER
LOCATIONS ACROSS SOUTHWEST UT WHERE FUELS ARE DRY.

A DRY COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO SWEEP THROUGH NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
UTAH MONDAY MORNING...USHERING A MUCH COOLER AIRMASS INTO THE
AREA. ALTHOUGH THE COOLER AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT WILL NOT
MAKE IT INTO SOUTHERN UT...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SWITCH AROUND TO
THE WEST-SOUTHWEST LATE IN THE MORNING. A COUPLE OF WINDIER
LOCATIONS IN SOUTHWEST UTAH MAY REACH CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CRITERIA MONDAY...HOWEVER WIDESPREAD CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS APPEAR UNLIKELY AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SEAMAN

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)



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